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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks 9/17/18 Pick

by | Sep 17, 2018 | mlb

Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks 9/17/18

Time: 9:40 PM ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Listed Pitchers: Kyle Hendricks (Chic) vs. Patrick Corbin (Az)
TV: FS – Arizona, WGN
Moneyline: Cubs +115/D’Backs -125
Over/Under: 7.5

The Cubs are trying to close out a divisional championship, while the Diamondbacks are in danger of fading from playoff contention. How are we playing the opener of this three-game series with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -135 for this game, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. The early betting action then dipped that line about a dime, to around -125.

The Diamondbacks could also be found getting upwards of +165 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

Chicago just took two of three low-scoring games at home from Cincinnati over the weekend, missing out on the sweep by losing Sunday’s series finale 2-1. That loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Cubs.

Arizona, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games in Houston over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series rubber match 5-4. So the Diamondbacks, after contending for a playoff spot all season, are just 4-12 over their last 16 games.

At 87-62 overall Chicago leads the NL Central by 2.5 games over second-place Milwaukee. The Cubs are also trying to pin down the best record in the National League, and the top seed for the upcoming NL playoffs.

At 78-72 overall Arizona now trails first-place Colorado by 4.5 games in the NL West, and sits four games back of both the Dodgers and St. Louis in the fight for the second NL wild-card spot.

In the only meeting previously this season between these two teams they split four games at Wrigley Field back in July.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Corbin (11-5, 3.05), by our strict standards, is 17/30 on quality starts this season and six for his last eight. Last Wednesday he allowed three runs and 10 hits through 6 1/3 innings at Colorado, but over his previous seven starts, he’s held opponents to just 11 runs through 44 2/3 innings for a 2.22 during that span. On the season Arizona is 17-13 with Corbin, with unders going 15-13.

In one start earlier this year against Chicago Corbin allowed just one run and six hits, with nine strikeouts, through seven innings of a 7-1 Diamondbacks victory.

Hendricks (11-11, 3.71) is 11/30 on quality starts this year, and three for his last five. Last Wednesday he held Milwaukee to two runs through five innings, and over his previous five starts, he’s allowed six earned runs through 30 innings for a 1.80 ERA over that run. On the season the Cubbies, a team that’s 25 games over .500, are only 15-15 with Hendricks, but the unders are a lopsided 20-10, which reflects well on him.

In one start earlier this year against Arizona Hendricks gave up three runs and seven hits through five innings of a 5-1 Chicago loss.

We’ll give Corbin the handicapping edge in this pitching match-up, but Hendricks has been good as of late, so it’s close.

What is a sportsbook bonus really worth?

Monday’s Batting Splits

The Cubs own a .260/.334/.397 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also only produced 15 runs over its last seven games.

The Diamondbacks own a .232/.310/.388 split against right-handed pitching this season.

Despite recent struggles, we’ll give Chicago a short edge with the sticks for Monday.

The Bullpens

The Cubs bullpen owns a 3.30 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP.

The Arizona pen owns a 3.53 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

We’ll give Chicago a short edge in the comparison of the bullpens, too.

Totals Report

Unders are 37-32 in games played at Chase Field this year, which are averaging 8.6 total runs per.

Unders are 7-0 in Chicago’s last seven games because while the pitching’s been great, the sticks have gone a bit chilly.

Unders are 3-1 in Cubs-D’Backs games this season, which have averaged 7.5 runs.

Free MLB Picks

The Cubs are closing in on a divisional title, while the Diamondbacks are fading from the playoff picture. Also, Chicago gets two of our three main handicapping check-mark, plus it’s getting an underdog price. We like the Cubbies for our free MLB pick for Monday and bet our action at a sportsbook that offers MLB dimelines.