Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves Pick 4/28/22

by | Last updated Apr 28, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves

Date: Thursday, April 28th, 7:20 ET

Location: Truist Park

TV: Marquee Sports Network

Money Line: Cubs +155 / Braves -182

Total Line: 8.5

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Chicago: Drew Smyly (1-1, 2.45)
Atlanta: Kyle Wright (2-0, 1.06)


Chicago Cubs: 8-10-0 SU / OU 10-8-0 / Run Line W/L 10-8-0
Atlanta Braves: 8-11-0 SU / OU 10-8-0 / Run Line W/L 7-12-0

The Atlanta Braves host the Chicago Cubs on Thursday, April 28th at Truist Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 7:20 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Atlanta as the favorite (-182, with a run line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Heading into Today’s game, Chicago will be looking to tack on another win, after taking down the Atlanta by the score of 6-3. This victory game despite being the betting underdog with a moneyline at 165.0. Through 7 games as the underdog, the team has a win percentage of 29%. On offense, Chicago’s lineup put together a total of 11 hits, while the pitching staff allowed 3 runs on 8 hits. In the game, the Cubs and Atlanta combined to match the over-under betting line of 9.0 runs. However, for the season, Chicago still has an overall over-under record of 10-8-0.

The Cubs will be hoping to pick up a win in today’s matchup, as they have gone just 2-3 over their last 5 games. Despite their below .500 record in this stretch, the team still has a positive run differential at 19. However, the team’s offense isn’t to blame, as they are averaging 6.6 runs per game compared to their season average of 5.06.

The Braves will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Chicago Cubs by the score of 6-3. This was a disappointing loss for the Braves, as they were favored to win at -185.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 15 games, winning at a rate of 47.0%. For the game, Atlanta’s staff gave up 6 runs on 11 hits, while on offense, Atlanta came up with 8 hits leading to 3 runs. In terms of the over-under, the Braves and Chi Cubs combined to surpass the line of 8.5 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games (10-8-0).

The Braves come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -1. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 4.0 runs per game, right in line with their season average of 3.89.

Pitching Matchup

For the Cubs, Drew Smyly gets the start, so far, he has put together a record of 1-1. Currently, Smyly has a strong ERA of just 2.45, while pitching an average of 4.73 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.232 against him. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Smyly is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.23 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, strikeouts have not been a big part of Smyly’s game, as he has a strikeout percentage of just 15.5% and a per-game average of 3.0. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 0.67 walks per contest.

For the Braves, Kyle Wright gets the start, so far, he has put together a record of 2-0. Heading into his matchup vs. Chicago, Wright has a strong ERA, sitting at just 1.06. This has come while averaging 5.67 innings per start. On the season, opposing team’s have put together a batting average of 0.18 against Wright. In addition, the team’s are hitting home runs at a below-average at a rate against him. So far, he has an HR/9 figure of 0.0. A strength of Kyle Wright’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 39.4%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 0.67 walks per contest.

Chicago vs Atlanta History

So far, the Atlanta Braves and Chicago Cubs have met up 2 times, today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Chicago and Atlanta each have 1 win. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-1, with the average run total sitting at 11.86 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.5 runs. Dating back to last season, Atlanta picked up 5 wins compared to 2, taking the season series. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 5-2.More Picks: Get our D’Backs at Cards Thursday Night Best Bet >>>

Betting Trends

  • Cubs are 21-44 in their last 65 games as a road underdog.
  • Cubs are 9-20 in their last 29 during game 3 of a series.
  • Braves are 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
  • Braves are 6-2 in their last 8 vs. National League Central.

Chicago Cubs at Atlanta Braves Prediction

In this matchup, look for the Braves to bounce back with a win over Chicago. I expect Kyle Wright to put up a strong performance for Atlanta. In addition, look for the Braves lineup to jump on Drew Smyly early and often.

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