Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Pick 6/27/21

by | Jun 27, 2021 | mlb

Chicago Cubs (42-34) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (45-31)

When: 7:10 p.m., Sunday, June 27

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: CHC +175/LAD -192 (Risk less per bet >>> Why lay -110 odds when you could be laying -105? Making the switch will save you TONS of money!)

Runline: Cubs +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Adbert Alzolay (4-6, 4.19 ERA, 1.03 WHIP) vs. Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 3.43 ERA, 1.01 WHIP)

Short Starts

If the Cubs are looking to get a split out of this series, they’ve got to get more out of Adbert Alzolay in this matchup. Alzolay is coming off three losses in his past five starts, and in his past two defeats, he hasn’t been anywhere near his best. Against San Diego, he didn’t make it to the fourth inning before getting pulled, and he couldn’t complete the fifth in a home loss to Cleveland.

Part of the problem for Alzolay is that when he’s not missing bats, he’s working his pitch count up pretty quickly, so if he’s not getting outs right away, he’s likely to become much easier to hit. In his past nine appearances, he’s only given up three runs or more once when he’s recorded six or more strikeouts, but failing to register six K’s has meant giving up three or more in all three starts.

Rediscovering Form

On the one hand, the Dodgers have come out on the losing end in Clayton Kershaw’s past two starts. On the other, neither of those losses can be blamed on the left-hander, as he’s received basically no run support in his past two outings. Against the Padres, three runs proved to be one too many, and the Dodgers never gave him anything in a 2-0 loss to the Phillies.

However, despite the defeats, Kershaw got a few encouraging signs that he was getting back to the pitcher he’s previously been. First, those two “Unders” cashing were the first time he’d recorded consecutive “Unders” since April 17 against the Padres, made it three in a row. Second, he averaged eight strikeouts per game in those two games and has recorded nine K’s in three of his past four starts. In this day and age, pitchers are at their best when they’re striking people out, and Kershaw needs to be punching batters out if he’s going to remain a top-of-the-line starter. His record leaves a fair amount to be desired this year, but when he’s on his game, he remains one of the strongest starters in the game.

Fast Starts on the Freeway

Here’s an interesting play that you might want to consider: scoring a run in the first inning. In each of the first three games of this four-game set in Los Angeles, at least one run has come home in the opening frame. Runs haven’t exactly been easy to come by in this series outside of that inning, as the teams have combined for just 17 runs in the past 27 innings of baseball.
But in that first inning, it seems someone wants to jump on the opponent quickly and does exactly that. On Saturday, it was Max Muncy who barely gave the fans time to get into their seats with an RBI double, but usually, it’s been the Cubs getting the job done early when these teams have met. Interestingly enough, two of the three meetings at Wrigley Field didn’t see a run scored in the opening frame. The one exception was Kershaw’s start, where the Dodgers’ pitcher didn’t get a second inning after giving up four in the first frame.

Betting Trends

  • The Cubs are 2-5 in their past seven games as a road underdog.
  • The Cubs are 16-7 in their past 23 against the NL West.
  • The Dodgers are 6-1 in their past seven against the NL Central.
  • The Dodgers are 50-20 in their past 70 games as a home favorite.
  • The under is 6-0 in the Cubs’ past six games.
  • The under is 6-0-1 in the Dodgers’ past seven home games.
  • The Cubs have won four of five meetings.
  • The under is 5-0 in the past five meetings in Los Angeles.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a hot one in southern California, with temperatures pushing to 88 degrees and wind blowing eight miles per hour out to right-center.

Dan’s pick

The wild card in this situation is Alzolay because we pretty much know what we’re likely to get from Kershaw. Alzolay pitched pretty well against the Dodgers in his most recent start against them, but that was also at Wrigley Field, where he’s been a stronger pitcher than he has been on the road. He’s lost his past three away from home and hasn’t won a road start since April 29.
Kershaw’s been more hittable this year, but I don’t want to trust Alzolay on the road. Give me the Dodgers in this one. Bet your Sunday MLB picks FREE by scoring a fat 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use promo/bonus code PREDICT100 to get the extra $ credited to your wagering account!)