Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers Odds & Pick 7/4/22

by | Last updated Jul 4, 2022 | mlb

Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers
Date: Monday, July 4th, 04:10 ET
Location: American Family Field
TV: Bally Sports Wisconsin
Money Line: Cubs +126 / Brewers -150 (MyBookie)
Total Line: 9.0


Chicago: Justin Steele (3-5, 4.39)
Milwaukee: Eric Lauer (6-3, 4.02)

Cubs Projected Lineup

David Bote 2B
P.J. Higgins C
Ian Happ LF
Patrick Wisdom 3B
Nico Hoerner SS
Andrelton Simmons SS
Yan Gomes C
Christopher Morel 2B
Willson Contreras C
Justin Steele P

Brewers Projected Lineup

Victor Caratini C
Tyrone Taylor CF
Rowdy Tellez 1B
Mike Brosseau 3B
Jonathan Davis CF
Andrew McCutchen RF
Luis Urías 3B
Christian Yelich LF
Willy Adames SS
Eric Lauer P


Chicago Cubs: 32-47-0 SU / OU 39-37-3 / Run Line W/L 40-39-0
Milwaukee Brewers: 46-35-0 SU / OU 41-35-5 / Run Line W/L 36-45-0

The Milwaukee Brewers host the Chicago Cubs on Monday, July 4th at American Family Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 04:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Milwaukee as the favorite (-150), with an OU line set at 9.0.

Recent Form

The Cubs come into this game having suffered a 4-2 loss to the Red Sox. Chicago’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 11 hits, leading to 4 runs. Offensively, they finished with just 2 runs on 9 hits. Cubs suffered the loss, despite being favored at -112.0. Through 28 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 43.0%. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 8.5 runs. Chicago games have still surpassed the over-under line more than half of the time, at 39-37-3.

The Cubs come into this game with a 4-1 record over their last 5 contests. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +14. Offensively, the team has put up 34 runs in their last 5 games. Chicago’s season average comes in at 4.39 (16th. Chicago’s overall series record is just 8-12-5.

Milwaukee will look to keep things rolling in today’s game, as they most recently took down Pirates by 2 runs 2-0. In the win, the pitching staff allowed just 0 runs on 9 hits. With their 5 hits, the Brewers could only muster 2 runs. Milwaukee picked up the win while being favored at -220.0. So far, the team has won 59.0% of the games in which they were favored. Combined, the Brewers and Pirates run total fell below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Milwaukee still has an above .500 over-under record at (41-35-5).

Across their last 5 contests, the Brewers are above .500, going 3-2. Their recent success is backed by an average scoring margin of +17 (last 5). The Brewers’ offense has elevated their play over their last 5 games, averaging 7.4 runs per game, compared to their season average of 4.62. On the season, Milwaukee has won more than half of their series, going 13-8-5.

Pitching Matchup

Chicago will roll with Justin Steele (3-5) as their starter. So far, Steele has put together an ERA of 4.39. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.61 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.26. This season, Steele has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.65 per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Justin Steele has a strong strikeout percentage of 22.0%, including a per-game average of 4.47. In his previous outings, walks have been an issue, as Steele is averaging 4.13 free passes per outing.

In today’s game, Milwaukee turns to starter Eric Lauer. For the year, he has a record of 6-3. So far, Lauer has put together an ERA of 4.02. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.58 innings. Lauer’s opponent batting average currently sits at 0.239. Home runs have been an issue for Lauer, as he is allowing an average of 1.84 per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Eric Lauer has a strong K% of 24.0%, including a per game average of 5.71. Command has been a problem for Lauer, as he is giving up 2.87 walks per outing.

Chicago vs Milwaukee History

Today’s matchup between the Chicago Cubs and Milwaukee Brewers will be their 11th meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Chicago and Milwaukee each have 5 wins. The over-under record in this series sits at 6-3. The average run total in these games is 10.05 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 3.6 runs. Dating back to last season, Milwaukee picked up 15 wins compared to 4, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 9-8. Last year, the Cubs and Brewers averaged 10.05 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.89 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Chi Cubs’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
  • Chi Cubs is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games when playing at home against Chi Cubs
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 5 games at home

Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers Prediction

Heading into Monday’s NL Central matchup between Chicago and Milwaukee, the Brewers are the favorite to pick up the win. I expect Milwaukee to come away with the victory, in what should be an offense-driven game. The last time Justin Steele took the mound vs Milwaukee, the two teams combined for 15 runs. I like the Brewers on the moneyline.

Free MLB Pick: Brewers Moneyline

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Will Rodgers Sports HandicapperI won my last two MLB playoff picks and am going for three straight on Friday in Game 1 of the World Series! I had a sparkling run down the stretch (in the regular season), and look to finish in the same fashion in the postseason. Hop on board now!