Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Pick 7/8/21

by | Jul 8, 2021 | mlb

Cincinnati Reds (45-41) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (52-36)

When: 8:10 p.m., Thursday, July 8

Where: American Family Field, Milwaukee

Moneyline: CIN +100/MIL -110 ( - 35% Crypto Reloads!)

Runline: Reds +1.5/Brewers -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Tyler Mahle (7-3, 3.63 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Adrian Houser (5-5, 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)

Pounding the Zone

If you’re going to be an effective pitcher for the Reds, you pretty much have to be a strikeout pitcher. Cincinnati’s park is just too small for a pitcher to have a lot of success unless he’s missing bats, which is one reason that Mahle has had a lot more success this year than he has in previous years.

So far, Mahle is up to 112 strikeouts in 89 innings, just above 1.25 per inning. That’s still not where it really needs to be for him to be a truly dominant starter, but it’s a big difference from two years ago when he averaged one per inning. In his past seven starts, he’s recorded at least six strikeouts every time, and the Reds have put five of those in the win column. The strikeouts haven’t made him invincible in the win column, but his ERA has dropped nearly 1.5 runs from his most recent full season, making him a solid play for both the Reds and “first five-inning” bettors.

Can’t Make It There, but Can Make It Anywhere

The Brewers have to be thrilled to get out of Queens, as they were going up against one of the few teams who knows how to play their game and win. Milwaukee doesn’t have much in the way of a lineup, but the Brewers’ pitching has been so effective that they haven’t really had to worry about putting up a lot of runs. But the Mets are just as effective, if not more, when playing that way, and Milwaukee ended up with its first series loss since June 16, when the Reds swept the Brewers.

The worrying thing about that series for Milwaukee was that Cincinnati was also able to play Milwaukee’s game and make it work for them. Twice, the Reds only managed to get a pair of runs on the board. Both times, two runs was enough to beat the Brewers in a couple of 2-1 victories. The Brewers only managed to score four runs for the entire series, and that’s pretty tough to do against anyone.
The good news for Milwaukee is that they have won four of nine against Cincinnati, so it’s not like there’s a jinx there. But the Brewers have done most of the damage against the Reds in Ohio, having dropped five straight to Cincinnati in Wisconsin.

Healthy Run Support

Plus, the Brewers seem to love when Houser is on the mound because, for whatever reason, Milwaukee consistently puts up runs when he’s on the hill. The Brewers haven’t scored fewer than five runs in any of Houser’s past seven starts, essentially leaving it in his hands as to whether or not the over hits.
The over has cashed in eight of Houser’s past ten starts, including once against the Reds. However, the Reds were also one of the two opponents against whom the over didn’t cash, as Houser held them to just one run in his most recent appearance against Cincinnati. Houser has been far from fantastic, but Milwaukee really doesn’t need fantastic as long as the offense produces for him. In his past five starts, the Brewers have come out ahead each time.

Betting Trends

  • The Reds are 6-1 in their past seven games.
  • The Reds are 12-2 in their past 14 against the NL Central.
  • The Brewers are 13-3 in their past 16 home games.
  • The Brewers are 22-5 in their past 27 games following a win.
  • The under is 5-0 in the Reds’ past five against the NL Central.
  • The over is 4-1 in the Brewers’ past five against the NL Central.
  • The Reds have won five straight games in Milwaukee.
  • The under is 5-2 in the teams’ past seven meetings in Milwaukee.

Weather Report

As long as precipitation holds off, the roof should stay open. If it does, the game will be played with 66-degree temperatures and wind blowing at nine miles per hour to the north-northeast, pushing balls toward first base.

Dan’s Pick

Milwaukee has won in Houser’s past five starts, but it’s not really because Houser himself has done anything. I’m more impressed by what the Reds have done as of late, and Cincinnati comes in with some nice momentum after making a relatively easy trip to Kansas City. Milwaukee will be thrilled to get away from the Mets’ pitching, but facing the Reds isn’t a picnic either. Cincinnati is hot in Wisconsin, and I think the Reds can keep their rise going. I’m taking Cincinnati. Bet your MLB picks FREE today by scoring a massive 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).