The Chicago Cubs (67-49) look to close out their three-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals (59-59) with a win on Sunday night at Busch Stadium. After splitting the first two games, this rubber match features a compelling pitching matchup between Cubs’ rookie sensation Shota Imanaga and Cardinals’ veteran Sonny Gray. As the Cubs fight to keep pace with the Brewers in the NL Central race, this nationally televised contest presents several intriguing betting angles worth exploring.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-123) ★★★★☆
– Top Prop: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
– Value Play: Under 8 Runs (-115) ★★★☆☆
Cubs vs Cardinals Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -123 | +103 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+140) | +1.5 (-165) |
| Total | Over 8.0 (-105) | Under 8.0 (-115) |
Opening Line: Cubs -120, Total 8
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The slight movement from Cubs -120 to -123 suggests moderate public support for Chicago, but not enough sharp action to move the needle significantly. What’s more interesting is the under gaining slight steam, moving from -110 to -115, despite both teams combining for 10 runs yesterday. This indicates some professional respect for both starting pitchers, particularly Imanaga, who has been excellent when healthy this season.
Pitching Matchup: Imanaga vs Gray – Who Has the Edge?
Chicago Cubs: Shota Imanaga (8-4, 3.12 ERA)
- Recently returned from IL and hasn’t missed a beat with a 3.86 ERA in his last 7 starts
- Impeccable control with only 17 walks in 89.1 innings (1.7 BB/9)
- Opponents batting just .217 against him with an elite 1.00 WHIP
- Coming off a quality start against Cincinnati (6.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K)
St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray (10-5, 4.21 ERA)
- Strong overall numbers but has struggled lately with a 6.49 ERA in his last 7 starts
- Still maintains excellent strikeout ability (141 K in 128.1 IP)
- Impressive 1.17 WHIP despite recent struggles
- Coming off a strong start against the Dodgers (5 IP, 1 ER, 8 K)
Advantage: Cubs. Imanaga has been remarkably consistent all season when healthy, while Gray has been more volatile recently despite flashing his All-Star form in his last outing.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Cubs hold a significant advantage in the bullpen department, boasting one of the more reliable relief corps in the National League. Daniel Palencia has emerged as their closer with 15 saves, while Brad Keller and Caleb Thielbar provide excellent setup work with 17 and 14 holds respectively.
The Cardinals’ bullpen has been less reliable, with JoJo Romero handling both closing and setup duties (2 saves, 16 holds). St. Louis lacks the depth Chicago possesses, which could be crucial if this game remains close into the later innings.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cubs are 54-59-0 ATS this season but 6-4 SU when Imanaga starts as a favorite
- Cardinals are 31-31 as underdogs this season, showing they’re capable of pulling upsets
- Chicago has dominated the season series, winning 5 of 8 meetings between these rivals
- Cubs have gone 8-2 in their last 10 road games against NL Central opponents
- St. Louis is 15-21 against left-handed starters this season
- Busch Stadium ranks 16th in run-scoring factor (0.992), making it a neutral venue
- The Cubs are 20-7 this season when holding opponents to 2 runs or fewer
Matt Shaw’s Spotlight: Rookie Finding His Stroke
Cubs rookie Matt Shaw has turned a corner since changing his swing mechanics in mid-July. In the past month, he’s slashing an impressive .315/.327/.667 with a 176 wRC+, including five home runs since the All-Star break. This dramatic improvement coincides with his revamped batting stance, and he’s now tied with former Cubs prospect Cam Smith with seven home runs despite having 111 fewer plate appearances.
Shaw’s recent power surge adds another dimension to an already potent Cubs lineup that roughed up the Cardinals pitching staff in Saturday’s 9-1 victory. His ability to provide punch from the bottom of the order creates serious challenges for opposing pitchers trying to navigate Chicago’s lineup.
Busch Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Busch Stadium plays relatively neutral for overall run scoring (0.992 factor), but slightly suppresses home runs (0.917 factor). The venue tends to favor pitchers who can keep the ball in the park, which works to Imanaga’s advantage as he’s been adept at limiting the long ball this season.
The weather forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with minimal wind, which shouldn’t significantly impact the playing conditions. The park’s dimensions (335′ to left, 400′ to center, 335′ to right) provide balance for both pitchers and hitters, making execution rather than environment the deciding factor.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cubs-Cardinals Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (-123)
I’m backing the Cubs with confidence here. Imanaga has been the most reliable starter in Chicago’s rotation even after his IL stint, and his precision pitching style should neutralize a Cardinals lineup that struggled to generate offense against Chicago pitching yesterday. While Gray looked sharp against the Dodgers his last time out, his recent body of work has been concerning. The Cubs’ superior bullpen provides another edge in what could be a close game. I’d play this up to -130.
Strong Value Play: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Imanaga has recorded 6+ strikeouts in six of his last eight starts, including seven Ks against Cincinnati in his most recent outing. The Cardinals have been middle-of-the-pack in terms of strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, and Imanaga’s deceptive delivery and pitch mix should generate plenty of swings and misses. With his pinpoint control, expect him to work efficiently and deep enough into the game to clear this modest strikeout total.
Worth Considering: Under 8 Runs (-115)
Both starters have the ability to dominate when they’re on, and I expect a more pitcher-friendly environment than we saw in Saturday’s lopsided affair. Imanaga’s precision and Gray’s potential resurgence point toward a lower-scoring contest. The Cubs’ reliable bullpen should also help keep runs at a premium in the later innings. This isn’t my strongest play, but the slight steam toward the under aligns with my analysis.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shota Imanaga | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Matt Shaw | To Hit a Home Run | +450 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Nico Hoerner | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Sonny Gray | Under 6.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Imanaga’s Pitching Prowess Will Be Decisive
This nationally televised matchup features two teams heading in opposite directions – Chicago fighting for playoff positioning while St. Louis hovers around .500. The Cubs have the more complete team right now, with superior starting pitching, a more reliable bullpen, and an offense that showed explosive potential in Saturday’s blowout win.
Imanaga has been nothing short of exceptional in his rookie MLB campaign, showing remarkable poise and command that belies his first-year status. His ability to limit walks and hard contact should neutralize the Cardinals’ home-field advantage. While Gray could certainly bounce back with another strong performance, the Cubs have too many advantages across the board to pass up at this modest price.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 4, St. Louis Cardinals 2
