The interleague showdown between the Chicago Cubs (55-39) and New York Yankees (53-41) concludes Sunday at Yankee Stadium, featuring a fascinating pitching matchup between Cubs’ Japanese sensation Shota Imanaga and Yankees’ rookie Will Warren. The Cubs evened the series Saturday behind Matthew Boyd’s masterful eight-inning shutout performance, setting up this rubber match with significant implications. With Imanaga returning from injury and looking sharp while Warren has struggled with command, I see multiple angles worth targeting in what should be a competitive finale before the All-Star break.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (+110) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130) ★★★☆☆
Chicago Cubs vs New York Yankees Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +110 | -130 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-160) | -1.5 (+140) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-105) | Under 8.5 (-115) |
Opening Line: Yankees -125, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line has moved slightly toward the Yankees despite their loss yesterday, suggesting some professional money believes the home team has the edge in this series finale. However, the modest movement indicates there’s no strong consensus among sharp bettors. The total has held steady at 8.5, which feels right considering Imanaga’s effectiveness and Warren’s tendency to allow baserunners. I’m seeing value on the Cubs as underdogs with their superior starter, especially with Chicago’s bullpen showing improvement in recent weeks.
Pitching Matchup: Shota Imanaga vs Will Warren – Who Has the Edge?
Chicago Cubs: Shota Imanaga (5-3, 2.80 ERA)
- Has been excellent when healthy, posting a sub-1.00 WHIP (0.98) in 61 innings pitched
- Command has been impeccable with only 15 walks against 42 strikeouts
- Coming off an impressive return from the IL where his velocity and movement looked sharp
- Left-handed pitchers have historically performed well at Yankee Stadium by neutralizing right-handed pull power
New York Yankees: Will Warren (6-4, 4.70 ERA)
- Struggling with command issues, having issued 41 walks in 90 innings
- High WHIP of 1.40 indicates consistent traffic on the basepaths
- Has shown strikeout ability (111 Ks) but often runs deep counts leading to early exits
- Vulnerable to left-handed hitters, who are batting over .270 against him this season
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Imanaga’s precision and efficiency stands in stark contrast to Warren’s command issues. The Cubs’ lefty presents a particularly tough matchup for a Yankees lineup that struggles more against left-handed pitching.
Bullpen Breakdown
The bullpen battle is more evenly matched than earlier this season. Chicago’s relief corps has stabilized after early struggles, with Ryan Pressly providing stability as closer. Daniel Palencia has emerged as a dominant setup man with 11 saves. The Yankees counter with the talented but sometimes erratic Devin Williams (13 saves), while Jonathan Loaisiga has struggled recently, surrendering three home runs in his last two appearances. With both starters having different profiles, bullpen usage will be crucial – Imanaga typically works more efficiently, potentially giving the Cubs the slight edge in bullpen rest.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Cubs are 7-3 in their last 10 games heading into the All-Star break
- Yankees are 4-6 in their last 10 games, showing signs of their typical mid-season slump
- Chicago is 26-19 on the road this season, showing comfort playing away from Wrigley Field
- The Cubs are 8-3 in Imanaga’s 11 starts this season when he’s been healthy
- New York is 5-5 in Warren’s last 10 starts, highlighting his inconsistency
- Cubs have scored 5+ runs in 6 of their last 8 games, showing offensive momentum
- Yankees are 7-10 against left-handed starting pitchers at home this season
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s All-Star Breakout: Can He Continue His Torrid Pace?
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been one of baseball’s breakout stars in 2025, earning an All-Star starting spot with 25 home runs and 27 steals heading into Sunday’s game. The young outfielder’s power-speed combination has transformed Chicago’s offense, and his performance against right-handed pitching (.289 AVG, .591 SLG) makes him particularly dangerous against Warren. The Yankees rookie has surrendered 14 home runs this season, predominantly to left-handed hitters, creating an advantageous matchup for Crow-Armstrong and the Cubs’ lefty-heavy lineup.
Yankee Stadium Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Yankee Stadium ranks 15th in overall run-scoring environment (0.994 factor) but jumps to 5th in home run factor (1.134). This creates an interesting dynamic for this pitching matchup. Imanaga has excelled at limiting home runs (0.74 HR/9) while Warren has been more susceptible (1.10 HR/9). The short right-field porch benefits lefty hitters like Crow-Armstrong and Cody Bellinger, who faces his former team. Meanwhile, Imanaga’s left-handed delivery should help neutralize the Yankees’ right-handed power, particularly Judge and Stanton, who prefer to pull the ball. The venue setup distinctly favors the Cubs in this matchup.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Cubs-Yankees Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs Moneyline (+110)
I’m backing the Cubs as road underdogs behind Imanaga, who gives them a significant pitching advantage. The Japanese lefty’s precision approach (0.98 WHIP) contrasts sharply with Warren’s tendency to allow baserunners (1.40 WHIP). Chicago’s lineup has been clicking recently, and their left-handed power bats match up well against Warren and Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. The Cubs have been a solid road team all season (26-19), and Imanaga’s efficient approach should help preserve their bullpen advantage. At plus-money odds, the Cubs moneyline offers excellent value.
Strong Value Play: Pete Crow-Armstrong Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Crow-Armstrong enters this game on a tremendous hot streak and faces a favorable matchup against Warren, who struggles against left-handed power. The Cubs’ centerfielder has exceeded this total in 7 of his last 10 games, and Yankee Stadium’s dimensions play perfectly to his pull-side power. With Warren’s command issues likely to provide favorable counts, Crow-Armstrong should get multiple opportunities to deliver. The plus-money odds make this an appealing proposition.
Worth Considering: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Imanaga has shown excellent swing-and-miss stuff when healthy, and the Yankees lineup ranks 5th in MLB in strikeouts. Warren has struggled with pitch efficiency, often putting the Yankees in a position where they’re pressing to score, which leads to more aggressive approaches. Imanaga’s deceptive delivery and excellent splitter should generate plenty of whiffs. He’s exceeded this strikeout total in 6 of his 9 starts when fully healthy this season.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +130 | ★★★★☆ |
| Shota Imanaga | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Kyle Tucker | To Record an RBI | +145 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Will Warren | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Aaron Judge | Under 1.5 Total Bases | +120 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Cubs’ Pitching Edge Proves Decisive in Series Finale
While the Yankees remain a formidable opponent at home, this matchup sets up perfectly for the Cubs to take the series. Imanaga’s precision pitching approach contrasts sharply with Warren’s command struggles, giving Chicago a significant edge. The Cubs’ left-handed power bats match up well against both Warren and Yankee Stadium’s dimensions. After Boyd’s masterclass yesterday, Chicago carries momentum into this finale, and they should be motivated to enter the All-Star break on a high note. The pitching matchup, venue factors, and current team form all point toward a Cubs victory.
Score Prediction: Cubs 5, Yankees 3
