Diamondbacks vs. Padres Pick & Predictions

by | Jun 20, 2022 | mlb

Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres

Date: Monday, June 20th, 09:40 ET

Location: Petco Park

TV: Bally Sports San Diego

Money Line: Diamondbacks +165 / Padres -200 (Everygame - Use bonus code ROOKIE200 to get a 200% bonus on your deposit of only $25!)

Total Line: 7.5

STARTING PITCHING

Arizona: Zach Davies (2-3, 3.78)
San Diego: Yu Darvish (6-3, 3.35)

Diamondbacks Projected Lineup

Carson Kelly C
Alek Thomas CF
David Peralta LF
Daulton Varsho RF
Pavin Smith 1B
Josh Rojas 3B
Geraldo Perdomo SS
Ketel Marte CF
Christian Walker 1B
Zach Davies P

Padres Projected Lineup

Nomar Mazara RF
Ha-seong Kim SS
Eric Hosmer 1B
Jorge Alfaro C
Manny Machado 3B
Trent Grisham CF
Luke Voit 1B
Jurickson Profar LF
Jake Cronenworth 2B
Yu Darvish P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Arizona Diamondbacks: 32-36-0 SU / OU 29-37-2 / Run Line W/L 39-29-0
San Diego Padres: 41-27-0 SU / OU 30-36-2 / Run Line W/L 37-31-0

The San Diego Padres host the Arizona Diamondbacks on Monday, June 20th at Petco Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 09:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places San Diego as the favorite (-200), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

In Arizona’s last game vs the Twins, the Diamondbacks came away with a 7-1 win. On their way to the victory, the pitching staff gave up 1 run on 5 hits. The Diamondbacks lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up with 8 hits, leading to 7 runs. This victory came despite being the betting underdog, getting 110.0 on the moneyline. This matchup remained below the over-under line set at 9.0 runs. So far, Arizona has been a good candidate to fall below the betting line, as their over-under record sits at just 29-37-2.

The Diamondbacks are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +2. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.10 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.0. Arizona’s overall series record is just 8-9-4.

San Diego will look to move on from a 5 runs loss to the Rockies, falling by the score of 8-3. San Diego’s pitching staff gave up 10 hits, leading to 8 runs for the Rockies. With their 10 hits, the Padres could only plate 3 runners. San Diego dropped the game despite being favored at -140.0. For the season, the team has been favored in 47 games, winning at a rate of 62.0%. With this result, the Padres and Rockies combined to fall below the over-under line of 12.5 runs. Now, San Diego had an over-under record of 30-36-2.

In their last 5 contests, the Padres have just 2 wins, going 2-3. Despite this record, the team still has a positive run differential of +4 (last 5). Their recent record comes while the offense has picked up its play, averaging 7.2 runs over their last 5 game, compared to their overall figure of 4.71. On the season, San Diego has won more than half of their series, going 12-6-3.

Pitching Matchup

The Arizona Diamondbacks will send Zach Davies to the mound with an overall record of 2-3. So far, Davies has put together an ERA of 3.78. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.31 innings. So far, Davies has a batting average allowed of 0.237. So far, Davies has managed to keep the ball in the ballpark, allowing just 1.04 home runs per 9 innings. Overall, he is averaging 4.38 per game, on a K rate of 20.0%. Command has been a problem for Davies, as he is giving up 2.87 walks per outing.

In today’s game, San Diego turns to starter Yu Darvish. For the year, he has a record of 6-3. So far, Darvish has put together an ERA of 3.35. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 6.26 innings. Across his previous outings, opponents are batting 0.212 against Darvish. Not only does Darvish have a strong batting average allowed, but he has also avoided giving up home runs. In his previous outings, opponents are averaging just 0.72 home runs allowed per 9 innings. In terms of strikeouts, Yu Darvish has a strong K% of 20.0%, including a per game average of 5.08. Darvish has done a good job at limiting walks, averaging just 1.79 per contest.

Arizona vs San Diego History

Today’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres will be their 5th meeting of the season. Currently, San Diego is winning the season series 3-1. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-3. The average run total in these games is 9.21 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 3.25 runs. Dating back to last season, the San Diego picked up 11 wins compared to 8, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 10-8. Last year, the Diamondbacks and Padres averaged 9.21 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 4.37 runs per game.

Betting Trends

  • Diamondbacks are 51-118 in their last 169 games as an underdog.
  • Diamondbacks are 36-86 in their last 122 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Padres are 15-7 in their last 22 games following a loss.
  • Padres are 11-5 in their last 16 overall.

Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres Prediction

Heading into Monday’s meeting between Arizona and San Diego, the Padres are the heavy favorite on the moneyline. Look for another strong outing from Yu Darvish, who has given up just 1 run in his last 2 appearances. Even if San Diego doesn’t have a huge night at the plate vs Zach Davies, they should still generate enough scoring to cover the runline.

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