The Los Angeles Dodgers (78-64) look to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles (66-76) in Sunday afternoon’s series finale at Camden Yards. After the Orioles’ stunning 9th-inning comeback win on Saturday that spoiled Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s no-hit bid, momentum sits squarely with the home team. However, I see significant value on the Dodgers with future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw taking the mound against Orioles right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano. With Los Angeles desperate to end their five-game losing streak, expect a focused effort from a championship-caliber team that’s been struggling.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-164) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-120) ★★★☆☆
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -164 | +138 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+100) | +1.5 (-120) |
| Total | Over 9.0 (100) | Under 9.0 (-120) |
Opening Line: Dodgers -155, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The market has shown slight movement toward the Dodgers despite their recent struggles, with the moneyline ticking up from -155 to -164. This suggests some professional money coming in on the road favorite with Kershaw on the mound. What’s more telling is the total, which opened at 8.5 but has been pushed up to 9 despite Camden Yards typically playing as a pitcher-friendly park (0.938 run factor). The juice sitting at -120 on the under indicates some resistance to further movement upward. I’m seeing value on the under here as sharp bettors appear to be expecting the Dodgers’ veteran ace to deliver a quality performance in this bounce-back spot.
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs Tomoyuki Sugano – Who Has the Edge?
Los Angeles Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw (9-2, 3.28 ERA)
- Has been remarkably effective when healthy this season, posting a 1.18 WHIP
- Veteran lefty is limiting opponents to a .247 batting average
- 25 walks compared to 61 strikeouts in 93.1 innings shows excellent command
- Coming off a historic milestone with his 3,000th career strikeout in July
Baltimore Orioles: Tomoyuki Sugano (10-7, 4.41 ERA)
- Has been inconsistent in his first MLB season after stellar career in Japan
- Struggling with a 1.32 WHIP and allowing too much hard contact
- Walked 35 batters in 140.2 innings while recording 95 strikeouts
- Has allowed 23 home runs this season, particularly vulnerable to left-handed power
Advantage: Significant edge to Los Angeles. Kershaw’s veteran presence and precision give the Dodgers a clear pitching advantage, especially considering Sugano’s vulnerability to power hitters.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled mightily in this series, with Blake Treinen and Tanner Scott both imploding in Saturday’s shocking loss. Despite recent troubles, Los Angeles still has quality arms with Alex Vesia (22 holds) and Kirby Yates providing depth. Baltimore’s relief corps features Felix Bautista (19 saves) and Yennier Cano (17 holds), but lacks the overall depth of the Dodgers. The recent workload could be a factor, as Baltimore needed significant bullpen innings on Friday. I expect Dave Roberts to avoid using Treinen and Scott if possible today, turning to fresher arms in high-leverage situations. Edge: Slight advantage to Los Angeles based on depth, though recent performance favors Baltimore.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Dodgers are 45-35 this season when favored by -155 or more on the moneyline
- Los Angeles is on a season-high five-game losing streak after being swept by Pittsburgh last week
- The Orioles are 37-42 as underdogs this season but have won 5 of their last 7 games
- Baltimore is 12-9 in underdog roles with odds of +130 or longer (57.1% win rate)
- Camden Yards has played as a pitcher-friendly park with a 0.938 run factor in 2025
- The Dodgers are 56-84 against the spread this season, one of the worst ATS records in MLB
- These teams have gone over the total in just 2 of their last 7 meetings
Shohei Ohtani’s Superstar Impact: Can He Snap the Dodgers’ Skid?
Shohei Ohtani remains the driving force of the Dodgers’ offense, leading the team in nearly every offensive category with a .276/.385/.599 slash line. His ability to impact games both as a power threat and on the basepaths makes him the most dangerous player on either roster. Sugano has struggled against left-handed power hitters this season, allowing a .290 batting average and .512 slugging percentage to lefties. This creates a perfect storm for Ohtani, who delivered an RBI single in Saturday’s game and looks primed for a breakout performance to help snap Los Angeles out of their funk. With Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman at the top of the order, the Dodgers have the firepower to overcome their recent offensive struggles.
Oriole Park at Camden Yards Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Camden Yards has played as a pitcher-friendly venue in 2025, ranking 22nd in run factor (0.938) and 21st in home run factor (0.908). The deeper left field dimensions implemented in recent years have significantly reduced the home run rate, particularly for right-handed hitters. Sunday’s forecast calls for mild temperatures around 72°F with moderate humidity and light winds, conditions that should favor pitchers. Kershaw, a fly ball pitcher who occasionally struggles with the long ball, should benefit from these park dimensions. For betting purposes, this environment supports both the Dodgers moneyline and the under, as runs could be at a premium despite both teams featuring quality offensive talent.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Orioles Showdown
Primary Play: Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline (-164)
The Dodgers are in desperate need of a win to snap their five-game losing streak, and they have the perfect pitcher on the mound to make it happen. Clayton Kershaw gives Los Angeles a significant advantage in the starting pitching matchup against the inconsistent Sugano. The veteran lefty has been remarkably effective this season when healthy, and I expect him to deliver a quality start against an Orioles lineup that, while dangerous, has been inconsistent. The emotional high from Saturday’s dramatic comeback win could lead to a letdown for Baltimore, while the Dodgers will be focused and determined to avoid a sweep. At -164, there’s still value on the superior team with the superior pitcher.
Strong Value Play: Under 9 Runs (-120)
Camden Yards has played as a pitcher-friendly park in 2025, and Sunday’s game features one of the greatest pitchers of his generation in Clayton Kershaw. While the Dodgers’ bullpen has struggled recently, I expect Kershaw to work deep into the game and limit Baltimore’s offense. The total has ticked up from 8.5 to 9, providing additional value on the under. Both teams have gone under the total in five of their last seven meetings, and I expect another relatively low-scoring affair in the series finale. The -120 juice on the under indicates smart money resistance to further movement upward.
Worth Considering: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (-125)
Ohtani has been the most consistent offensive force for the Dodgers all season, and he matches up extremely well against Sugano. The Japanese right-hander has struggled against left-handed power hitters, and Ohtani has the perfect swing to take advantage of those weaknesses. After contributing an RBI single yesterday, Ohtani appears locked in and should deliver multiple hits or at least one extra-base hit in Sunday’s contest. His .599 slugging percentage ranks second among all qualified MLB hitters, making this prop one of my favorite plays on the board.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shohei Ohtani | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -125 | ★★★★☆ |
| Clayton Kershaw | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Jackson Holliday | Over 0.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs | -170 | ★★★★☆ |
| Mookie Betts | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +100 | ★★★★☆ |
| Gunnar Henderson | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Dodgers’ Veteran Leadership Will Prevail
After a heartbreaking loss in which they were one out away from a no-hitter, the Dodgers will turn to their veteran leadership to avoid the sweep. Clayton Kershaw provides exactly the type of stabilizing presence they need, and I expect him to deliver a quality performance against the Orioles. While Baltimore has momentum following their dramatic comeback win on Saturday night, I believe the combination of Kershaw’s pitching and a motivated Dodgers lineup led by Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman will be too much for the Orioles to overcome. The price is reasonable for the superior team with the far superior starting pitcher, making the Dodgers moneyline my strongest play for Sunday’s matchup.
Score Prediction: Los Angeles Dodgers 5, Baltimore Orioles 2
