Dodgers vs. Phillies Analysis & Predictions 5/21/22

by | May 21, 2022 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies

Date: Saturday, May 21st, 06:05 ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park

TV: SportsNet LA

Money Line: Dodgers +107 / Phillies -128 (Bovada - Top 3 sportsbook on the web! You’re missing out if you don’t have them in your sports betting arsenal!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Los Angeles: Mitch White (1-0, 4.82)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (1-4, 3.64)

Dodgers Projected Lineup

Cody Bellinger CF
Chris Taylor LF
Max Muncy 3B
Mookie Betts RF
Justin Turner 3B
Gavin Lux 2B
Will Smith C
Trea Turner SS
Freddie Freeman 1B
Mitch White P

Phillies Projected Lineup

Odubel Herrera CF
Jean Segura 2B
J.T. Realmuto C
Nick Castellanos RF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Alec Bohm 3B
Johan Camargo 2B
Bryce Harper RF
Kyle Schwarber LF
Aaron Nola P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Los Angeles Dodgers: 26-12-0 SU / OU 17-19-2 / Run Line W/L 23-15-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 18-21-0 SU / OU 19-18-2 / Run Line W/L 19-20-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Dodgers on Saturday, May 21st at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:05 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-128), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

Los Angeles looks to keep things rolling after taking down the Philadelphia by the score of 4-1. Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Philadelphia to 1 run on 7 hits. The Dodgers lineup had a good night at the plate, coming up 9 hits, leading to 4 runs. In the matchup, Los Angeles was favored at -137.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 38 of their games, winning at a rate of 68.0%. Together, Dodgers and Philadelphia stayed below the OU line set at 9.0 runs. So far, Los Angeles has been a good candidate to fall below the betting lines, as their over-under record sits at just 17-19-2.

Over the Dodgers’ last 5 games, they have not lost a contest, going 5-0. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +16. Offensively, the team has put up 33 runs in their last 5 games. Los Angeles’s season average comes in at 5.45 (1st. So far, Los Angeles has won over half of their 13 series played, going 9-4-0.

Philadelphia will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Dodgers by the score of 4-1. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Dodgers to 4 runs and 9 hits. With their 7 hits, the Phillies could only muster 1 run. This loss came as no surprise, as Philadelphia came into the game as the underdog, getting 127.0. So far, the team has gone into 15 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 47.0%. With this result, the Phillies and the Dodgers combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. Philadelphia still has an above .500 OU record at (19-18-2).

In their last 5 contests, Phillies have just 1 win, going 1-4. During this time, the team has a run differential of -6. The team’s offense is partly to blame for their recent slump, as they have averaged just 1.6 runs over their last 5 game. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 4-9-0.

Pitching Matchup

Mitch White gets the start for the Dodgers, with an overall record of 1-0. So far, White has put together an ERA of 4.82. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 1.82 innings. White comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.235. Opposing batters are hitting for power at a below-average rate against White, as he is allowing just 0.99 per 9 innings. Up to this point, White has a strikeout percentage of just 28.0% and a per game average of 2.2. Throughout the season, White has avoided walking batters, allowing just 2.89 per contest.

Aaron Nola gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 1-4. To date, Nola has an ERA of 3.64 while lasting an average of 5.88 innings per appearance. Nola comes into the game with a batting average allowed of 0.216. Opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Nola, averaging 1.34 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Aaron Nola has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 30.0% while averaging 6.875 K’s per game. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.72 walks per contest.

Los Angeles vs Philadelphia History

Today’s matchup between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Philadelphia Phillies will be their 5th meeting of the season. Currently, Philadelphia is winning the season series 3-2. The over-under record in this series sits at 4-1. The average run total in these games is 5.33 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.6 runs. Last season, Los Angeles picked up the series win, 4 games to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 0-5. Last year, the Dodgers and Phillies averaged 5.33 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 3.0 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • LA Dodgers is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games at home
  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing LA Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

In today’s matchup between the Dodgers and Phillies, I recommend taking Philadelphia to rebound from last night’s loss. Even though runs have been hard to come by for the Phillies, I expect the group to fare better vs Mitch White. I am also looking for a good start out of Aaron Nola. The last time he faced the Dodgers, Nola went 7 innings, giving up just 2 runs. I like Philadelphia on the moneyline.

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