Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees Pick

by | Jun 21, 2019 | mlb

Houston Astros (48-28) vs. New York Yankees (47-27), 6/21/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Friday, June 21
Where: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
Listed Pitchers: Brad Peacock (6-4, 3.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) vs. James Paxton (4-3, 3.93, 1.31)

TV: MLB, SportsNet Southwest, WPIX
Moneyline: Yankees -165/Astros +155
Over/Under: 9.5

The New York Yankees ride a six-game winning streak into the second game of a four-game weekend series against the slumping Houston Astros in the Bronx Friday night. Which way are we going here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened New York at around -170 over Houston, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line just a bit, to around -165.

Astros vs. Yankees Set-Up

The Pinstripes grabbed the opener of this series Thursday night 10-6, cashing in for us as -135 favorites on the MLB betting line. New York broke a scoreless tie with a six spot in the bottom of the fourth inning and cruised home from there for the W.

Also, Thursday’s game played over a total of 10 runs.

With Thursday’s loss Houston now owns a five-game losing streak. But at 48-28 overall the Astros still lead the AL West by 7.5 games over second-place Texas.

With Thursday’s victory New York now owns a six-game winning streak. At 47-27 overall the Yankees now lead the AL East by 4.5 games over the second-place Rays.

Bigger-picture, both Houston and New York now trail Minnesota by one game in the battle for the best record in the American League.

The Astros now lead this season series with the Yankees three games to one..

Friday’s Starting Arms

Lefty Paxton is just 3/11 on quality starts this season, and just one for his last six. Last Sunday he held the White Sox to two runs and eight hits through six innings of a 10-3 Yankees win. But over his two starts previous to that he gave up nine earned runs and 11 hits through 7 1/3 innings against the Mets and Toronto.

New York is 7-4 with Paxton this season but only 1-2 over his last three starts.

Over his last five starts against Houston, four last year while with Seattle and one back in April of this season, Paxton gave up 11 runs and 30 hits through 30 1/3 innings. His teams won four of those five games.

Peacock is just 5/13 on quality starts this year and 0 for his last three. Last Sunday he gave up four runs and five hits, including a couple of homers, through five innings of a 12-0 Astros loss to Toronto. And over his last three starts he’s allowed 10 runs and 16 hits through 16 1/3 innings.

Houston is 9-4 with Peacock this year but only 1-2 over his last three starts.

This will be Peacock’s first-ever start against the Yankees, which could give him an advantage, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Houston is batting a healthy .279/.365/.509 against left-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top four in the Majors in this split. However, this lineup has also scored a total of just 13 runs over its last five games.

New York is batting .266/.344/.471 against right-handed pitching this season, which ranks this lineup among the top three in the Majors in this split. This unit has also added the bats of Edwin Encarnacion and Aaron Judge in the last few days, making it even more dangerous.

The Bullpens

  • The Astros bullpen owns a 3.54 ERA this season and a 1.15 WHIP.
  • The Yankees pen owns a 3.92 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP.
  • Both these bullpens rank among the top handful of relieving corps in MLB this season.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 41-31 in Astros games this season.
  • Overs are 40-31 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 23-15 in games played at Yankee Stadium this season.
  • Overs are 3-0-1 in Astros-Yankees games this season.
  • Overs are a combined 14-8 in games started by Paxton and Peacock this season.

Free MLB Pick

Like Thursday’s series opener this game sets up as a double play on the MLB streak betting theory, and while we don’t always go along with that method we’re riding it here. We like New York for our free MLB pick for Friday.