Houston at Arizona Diamondbacks ML Pick

by | Apr 12, 2022 | mlb

Houston Astros (3-1) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (1-3)
When: 9:40 p.m., Tuesday, April 12
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix
Moneyline: HOU -161/ARI +140
Runline: Astros -1.5/Diamondbacks +1.5
Total: 9
(MLB Dimelines: Save Money All Season Long)

Starting Pitchers: Luis Garcia (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP) vs. Madison Bumgarner (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP)

Surprise Starter

It’s a little early for teams to pull off a surprise like this one, but the Diamondbacks are already going back to ace Madison Bumgarner in just their fifth game of the season, even though Zac Gallen was the scheduled starter. Making matters worse for Arizona is that Gallen’s issue appears to be either from a cut on his thumb or a shoulder problem, which means the Diamondbacks could have to dive into their minor league system for a longer-term fix.

But for now, Bumgarner takes the ball on normal rest, given yesterday’s off day, which actually gives the Diamondbacks some value in this spot. Bumgarner is really the only good thing the Diamondbacks have concerning their pitching staff, which says that the under might offer some real value here as long as he’s still able to pitch the way he normally does.

The saving grace for Arizona here might be that Bumgarner only threw 68 pitches in his opening start, so he should be able to go for a normal-length start this time around. If he is, this total is likely too high. If he isn’t, this will devolve into a bullpen game rather quickly.

Back to Normal?

Was Luis Garcia simply out of bullets last year, or were the struggles he showed in the playoffs a sign of him breaking down? For the most part, Garcia was a reliable starter in 2021, posting a 3.30 ERA and notching 167 strikeouts. But in the playoffs, things took a hard turn in the wrong direction, as Garcia only made it to the fourth inning once in five appearances and the Astros went just 1-4 in his appearances.

Part of that could be explained by him pitching on short rest in one of his final appearances of the season, but there’s no adequate excuse for why he couldn’t get outs in the rest of his time on the mound. Garcia’s final six starts of 2021 saw him give up more than a run an inning on four occasions, and this will be a real test of whether that was a harbinger or whether that was a blip on the radar.

Wake Up the Bats

Nobody expected much from Arizona this season, but the way the Diamondbacks didn’t hit against the Padres was rather alarming. Arizona managed to hit just .129 against San Diego in four games, and of the 11 runs that they scored in a four-game set, four of them were on home runs. So far, this is a team that cannot manufacture runs without getting some real help from the other side, as Padres’ pitchers walked 19 Diamondbacks hitters in the series, giving Arizona eight more baserunners via walks than they got through hits (as four of their hits were home runs and didn’t provide a baserunner). Against Houston, that could be a real problem because the Astros simply did not walk hitters when facing the Angels. Over the course of that four-game set, only seven Anaheim hitters reached base via a free pass.

Betting Trends

  • Hou is 4-1 in their past five road games.
  • The Astros are 15-6 in their past 21 Tuesday games.
  • Arizona is 7-19 in their past 26 interleague games.
  • The Diamondbacks are 38-100 in their past 138 games overall.
  • The under is 5-0 in Houston’s past five games after an off day.
  • The under is 8-2-1 in the Stros’ past 11 games overall.
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the Diamondbacks’ past five home games.
  • The under is 5-2 in the D-Backs’ past seven Tuesday games.
  • The Astros are 4-1 in the teams’ past five meetings.

Weather Report

Days like today are exactly why the Diamondbacks built Chase Field with a retractable roof. It’s going to be a perfect day for baseball in Arizona, with temperatures sitting at 70 degrees at first pitch. The under could be in play with winds blowing in at 15 miles per hour from center field.

Dan’s pick

The Diamondbacks hold a little more value going back to Bumgarner, but they’re still a lousy baseball team facing one of the best the American League has to offer. I really like the under here, as I don’t see Arizona doing a lot of hitting or working out walks in this situation.

I don’t expect the Astros to bomb Bumgarner, but I do think they hit well enough to win. I’ll take Houston. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit up to $500 at Betnow Sportsbook when you use bonus code PREDICTEM when registering for a new betting account! It’s the biggest sportsbook bonus from a legit online sportsbook you’ll find during the baseball betting season!

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