Indians vs. Twins Total & ML Picks 9/12/20

by | Sep 12, 2020 | mlb

Cleveland Indians (26-19) vs. Minnesota Twins (28-18)

When: 8:07 p.m., Saturday, September 12

Starting Pitchers: Zach Plesac (3-1, 1.32 ERA, 0.74 WHIP) vs. Rich Hill (1-1, 3.86 ERA, 1.38 WHIP)

Where: Target Field, Minneapolis

Moneyline: CLE -117/MIN +107 (BetOnline - AWESOME Live Betting Platform! 35% Crypto Reloads!)

Runline: Indians -1.5/Twins +1.5

Total: 8.5

Low, Lower, Lowest

Here’s something that might surprise you a bit: games between Minnesota and Cleveland have been very low-scoring. Case in point: these teams just played a game where Vegas set the total at a laughable 6.5 runs for a nine-inning contest. The teams came in under that with two runs left on the table. Not only that, but every game between the Indians and the Twins except one would have come in under that number. In eight meetings this year, these teams have averaged a combined 4.75 runs per game.

Part of that is because Cleveland is the ultimate good-field, no-hit team, as the Indians rank second in ERA and 27th in batting average. But it takes a willing participant to consistently post under totals, and that’s where Minnesota comes in. The Twins aren’t bad hitters by any means, but facing the Indians’ legion of arms has been no picnic for anybody, even Minnesota. However, the Twins have plenty of strong starters of their own at their disposal. Minnesota’s ERA ranks fifth in the majors, which means the Twins are perfectly happy to play the Indians’ game of counting on their pitching and hoping one or two runs will be enough to win. The Twins have been right more often than not, as they’re 5-3 against Cleveland and have yet to score more than four runs in any of their victories.

Slumping at the Worst Time

When the Indians beat the Royals at the start of the week, it seemed to be a good thing. After all, Cleveland had lost the series opener in four previous series, so reversing that trend seemed to come just in the nick of time. However, Cleveland followed up by losing three straight to Kansas City before making it four consecutive defeats by losing Friday to Minnesota, putting a serious dent in the Indians’ hopes of winning the AL Central.

On the other side of the coin, the Twins hope that they’ve already gone through their dark days. Minnesota seemed to have the division completely locked up a few weeks ago, but the Twins let the Indians and the White Sox back in the race by dropping six straight games, which has left Minnesota a game back of Chicago as we enter the final two weeks of the regular season. The last place either team wants to be is third place in the Central because even though that’s good enough to get a playoff spot in this weird season, it also means the best of three series in someone else’s ballpark to get into the main draw.

Power Premium

The low totals might be offset by one factor: the long ball. Friday’s game was a rarity in that every run scored came via the home run, as the teams combined to hit three out of the park in a game that featured four runs total. The power might be the difference again this time, as Cleveland’s Zach Plesac has been even better statistically than Shane Bieber, who took his first loss of the season because he gave up two of the three home runs.

Given that few runs are expected, there’s a good chance that you’ll get plus money if you take the teams to hit more than three home runs — which could be an exciting way to go against the grain.

Betting Trends

  • The Indians have won five straight Saturday games.
  • The Indians are 7-1 in the second game of their past eight series.
  • The Indians are 12-3 in their past 15 road games.
  • The Twins are 7-1 in their past eight against the AL Central.
  • The Twins are 8-2 in their past ten games.
  • The under is 6-2-1 in the Indians’ past nine games.
  • The under is 15-6-1 in the Indians’ last 22 road games.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Twins’ past six Saturday games.
  • The under is 39-15-3 in the teams’ past 57 meetings.

Weather Report

A weak six-mile per hour wind is expected to blow out toward right-center, as temperatures should hit 63 degrees in Minneapolis.

Dan’s Pick

Cleveland has tended to be deadly in the second game of a series, and the fact that the Indians lost the series opener has me thinking that this is an excellent time to pick the Tribe to bounce back. After all, the Indians have played five straight series where they’ve split the first two games, and another low-scoring game would favor Cleveland’s strong pitching staff and sharp bullpen.

I like the Tribe and the under in this one. Hey! Don’t forget that we offer free weekly NFL picks! Week 1 plays are up!

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