New York Jets at New England Patriots
Sunday, October 18, 2026
1:00 PM ET, Gillette Stadium
The Patriots are 7.5-point home favorites with a total of 43.5. My play is Patriots -7.5.
Two weeks ago Drake Maye looked like a project. Then he went into Buffalo and won, came home and dropped 45 on Las Vegas, and suddenly Foxborough feels loud again. The Jets just clawed out a 17-12 win over Cleveland. Good for them. It does not close an eight-to-eleven-point talent gap.
Maye’s heater is real. Over his last two starts he has thrown for 643 yards with seven touchdowns and one interception while completing 68 percent of his throws. New England’s offensive expected-points rate — the snap-by-snap scoring efficiency number — jumped from 23rd to 11th in a week. Mike Vrabel’s defense is still stingy at 18.8 points allowed per game, fourth in the league. The Patriots sit seventh in TeamRankings’ predictive ratings. The Jets sit 28th. That is not a one-score relationship.
Gang Green does some things well. Geno Smith has yet to throw an interception and owns a 104.2 passer rating. The defense ranks fifth in EPA allowed and just sacked Deshaun Watson eight times. Rookie David Bailey is a problem. If you are hunting a reason this stays close, start there — and then look at New England’s injury list at corner, where Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis are both out. Soft coverage against Garrett Wilson is the cleanest path to Jets points.
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The Hall-shaped hole. Breece Hall is out with a quad injury. Without him, New York leans on Braelon Allen (116 yards against Cleveland) and an offense averaging 18.6 points per game, 27th in the NFL, with a 46 percent red-zone touchdown rate. They sustain drives — third in completion percentage — and then stall. That is how you lose by 10, not how you cover +7.5 on the road against a team that just scored 45.
The market opened this game Patriots -10 and walked it down to -7.5 after New York’s win and the secondary news. Power ratings still imply New England by roughly 11 with home field. Buying the dog because the number moved is fighting the wrong fight. The true side is still the favorite; the public just got a better price on the wrong team.
The case against me
If the Jets’ pass rush gets Maye on the ground the way they got Watson, the turnovers that plagued him early (seven picks on the year) can reappear. A limited Rhamondre Stevenson would further blunt New England’s run game. And Geno-to-Wilson against a patched-up secondary can produce enough explosives to keep a live underdog within a score deep into the fourth. Those are real caves. They are not enough to lay off a short number against a 28th-ranked team in Foxborough.
Projected score: Patriots 27, Jets 16.
The Pick: Patriots -7.5
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