Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Guardians Pick – 7/9/23

Kansas City Royals (25-65) vs. Cleveland Indians (45-44)

Date: Sunday, July 9th, 2023

Time: 1:40PM ET

Location: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio

Betting Odds: KC +200/CLE -245

Runline: K. City +1.5 (+100)/Cleve -1.5 (-120)

Total: 8.5

Probable Starting Pitchers

Kansas City: Ryan Yarbrough (1-4, 6.15 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, only 14 K’s in 26.1 innings))
Cleveland: Shane Bieber (3.66 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, respectable 3.02 home ERA in 47.2 innings)

Hot vs. Not

The Cleveland Guardians have won three games in a row and six of their last eight. The Royals have lost their last six games and have only scored one run or less in three of their last four games. Cleveland is on a mini-heater and what’s cool here is they’ve managed to pull this off with a somewhat cold Jose Ramirez, who is only hitting .192 over his last seven games.

How the Public is Betting the Royals/Guardians Game

Both sharps and the general betting public are hitting the Guardians hard, to the tune of 78%.

Betting Trends Worth Noting

• KC is only 12-34 on the road this season
• The Royals are 19-47 in their last 66 games after a loss
• KC is 4-11 in their last 15 Sunday games
• The Royals are 13-38 in their last 51 contests
• KC is 15-46 in their last 61 games away from Kauffman Stadium
• Cleveland beats up bad teams. They’re 8-1 in their last 9 games against an opponent winning less than 40% of their games
• Cleve is 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a left-handed starting pitcher

Reasons Why I’m Betting the Guardians

This matchup is a classic hot vs. not. The Royals are limping into the all-star break and have to be mentally beaten down after a frustrating first half. KC starter Ryan Yarbrough won’t be in the game long, regardless of how well he pitches. He’s not an endurance guy. This means we’ll get lots of tasty bullpen action from a Royals team who ranks second last in MLB in that category. The Royals also rank dead last in saves with 12. Even if they do take a lead late into the game, there’s a good chance the pen blows it. The bullpen owns a gross 1.50 WHIP. For those not familiar with WHIP, 1.50 essentially means their pitchers put an average of 1.5 runners on base per inning. It’s tough to concentrate on pitching when you’re distracted by baserunners.

Conversely, the Guardians have the second-best bullpen in baseball with a 3.11 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

They’re offense is doing well too. Cleveland is second in the league in hits over the past seven days with 71.

Kevin West’s Pick to Get the Money

Cleveland Guardians on the runline at -1.5, -120.

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