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Betting the road favorite tonight in St. Louis

by | Sep 14, 2018 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals 9/14/18

Time: 8:15 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Walker Buehler (LA) & Jack Flaherty (St. L)
TV: SportsNet LA, FS – Midwest,
Moneyline: Dodgers -125/Cardinals +115
Over/Under: 9

The Dodgers and Cardinals, still chasing a playoff berth, continue with an important four-game series in St. Louis Friday night. LA took the opener Thursday and can pull even with the Cardinals in the NL wild-card race with a victory tonight. How are we playing this contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened LA at around -130 for this game, with an over/under of 8 runs. The early betting action then dipped that line to around -125 and the total down to 7.5.

The Dodgers could also be found getting around +130 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

LA took game 1 of this series Friday night 9-7. The Dodgers put up three runs in the top of the first, one in the third and four in the fourth for an 8-1 lead, then hung on from there. Los Angeles won as a -190 favorite with Clay Kershaw going, and that game played over a total of 7.5 runs in that fourth inning.

Even with Thursday’s victory, the Dodgers are only 5-5 over their last 10 games. At 80-67 overall LA trails division-leading Colorado by a game and a half in the NL West, but now sits just one game back of the Cardinals in the battle for the second National League wild-card spot.

With Thursday’s loss St. Louis is just 5-7 over its last 12 games. At 81-66 overall the Cardinals trail the first-place Cubs by 4.5 games in the NL Central. St. Louis also owns the second National League wild-card spot at the moment, but as mentioned above it’s only a game ahead of the Dodgers in that battle.

The Cardinals lead the season series with the Dodgers three games to one.

Friday’s Starters

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played back on Aug. 22 at Chavez Ravine, a 3-1 St. Louis victory.

Rookie righty Flaherty (8-6, 2.92), by our strict standards, is only 9/24 on quality starts this season, but a short leash plays a part there. Last Saturday he gave up three runs in five innings, with four walks, against Detroit, but over his previous six outings, he allowed just five runs and 17 hits through 37 innings. On the season, thanks to some poor run support, the Cardinals are 11-13 with Flaherty, with unders going 15-8.

In one start this year against Los Angeles, that 3-1 St. Louis victory back in August, Flaherty allowed just one run and one hit through six innings, with 10 strikeouts.

Fellow rookie righty Buehler (6-5, 3.09) is 9/19 on quality starts this year, but only one for his last three. Last Saturday he gave up four runs through six innings at Colorado, and over his last three starts, he’s allowed seven runs through 16 1/3 innings, although with 20 strikeouts. On the season the Dodgers are 11-8 with Buehler, with unders going 12-7.

In his one start, this year against the Cardinals Buehler tossed seven innings of three-hit, shutout ball, with nine strikeouts.

While it’s close we’re giving Flaherty the handicapping edge for his pitching match-up.

Friday’s Batting Splits

Los Angeles owns a .250/.332/.447 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least six runs in four of its last five games.

St. Louis owns a .250/.319/.407 split against righties this year. This lineup has also scored at least five runs four of its last five times out.

We’ll give the Dodgers a short advantage with the sticks for Friday.

The Bullpens

The LA bullpen owns a 3.80 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP.

The Cardinals pen owns a 4.32 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP.

We gotta give the Dodgers the edge in the comparison of the bullpens, too.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 38-31 in games played at Busch Stadium this year, which are averaging 8.5 total runs per.
  • Unders are 3-1 in Dodgers-Cardinals game this season.

Free MLB Picks

St. Louis may own the edge in the pitching match-up but Los Angeles owns our other two handicapping check-marks. Also, the Dodgers, while not lighting the world on fire, are playing the better ball as of late. We’re betting LA with our free MLB pick for Friday at 5Dimes (reduced juice sports betting).