Lay the Lumber: Mets vs. Dodgers Pick

by | Aug 19, 2021 | mlb

New York Mets (60-60) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (75-46)

When: 10:10 p.m., Thursday, August 19

Where: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Moneyline: NYM +155/LAD -180 (WagerWeb)

Runline: Mets +1.5/Dodgers -1.5

Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Tajuan Walker (7-7, 3.75 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) vs. Undecided

Complaints From Above

Welcome to the new era for the Mets, as Steve Cohen is now taking to Twitter to express his displeasure with the Mets’ hitting. Cohen has made it clear he expects success from the Mets now that he’s in charge, and he came out with this gem on the social media service: “It’s hard to understand how professional hitters can be this unproductive. The best teams have a more disciplined approach. The slugging and OPS numbers don’t lie.”

Responding to your owner’s words on social media isn’t something most teams have to deal with, but the Mets did respond fairly well on Wednesday, besting the Giants in extra innings to get a badly-needed win. The win over San Francisco ended a five-game skid for the Mets, who are otherwise 1-12 in their past 13 contests against teams not named the Nationals. As a result, New York has fallen to just 60-60 and is now 4.5 games back of a suddenly hot Atlanta squad for the NL East lead. With Cohen expecting success and seeing little, something’s got to change for the Mets.

Scraping By

The Dodgers have followed a very weird formula for their past two series: they’ve won the first two games by a single run and then blown the doors off their opponent in the third game to leave a statement before moving on to the next opponent. They looked fantastic against the Pirates in the series finale, routing Pittsburgh by a 9-0 score because they got to take advantage of facing J.T. Brubaker and the Pirates’ weak offense.

But in the first two games of the series, the Dodgers actually had to sweat against Pittsburgh, as the Pirates’ pitchers did just enough to keep the Dodgers off-balance and keep the runs from piling up. For a team that ranks third in MLB in scoring runs, the Dodgers really aren’t doing a lot of it consistently. Over the Dodgers’ past seven games, four of them have seen Los Angeles score four runs or less. The Dodgers’ hitters simply can’t be counted on to produce on a consistent basis. When they face a lesser hurler, they’re a good bet to put up some big numbers, but when they face a decent pitcher, the under becomes the dominant play with this squad.

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Schedule Defeat

The Mets really didn’t need that extra-inning game against the Giants to happen. They needed the win, of course, but the Mets really could have used a nine-inning game and getting to Los Angeles a little earlier. Instead, the Dodgers got to finish their game without expending much effort, while the Mets had to finish their game late and then head from San Francisco to Los Angeles.
That’s not a long flight, at least, but it’s also more than the Dodgers have to go through in order to play this game. The one saving grace is that the Dodgers seem to be thrown off with their rotation at the moment, as they’ve yet to name a starter for this contest. But I’d still rather be the Dodgers and have the extra rest and lack of travel than I would the Mets.

Betting Trends

  • The Mets are 1-5 in their past six overall games.
  • The Mets are 1-6 in their past seven road games.
  • The Dodgers are 13-3 in their past 16 overall games.
  • The Dodgers are 21-8 in their past 29 games against the National League East.
  • The under is 6-1 in the Mets’ past seven road games.
  • The under is 9-1 in the Mets’ past ten games after scoring five runs or more in their previous game.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past six home games.
  • The under is 20-7-3 in the Dodgers’ past 30 games following a win.
  • The Mets are 3-9 in their past 12 matchups at Dodger Stadium.
  • The over is 5-1 in their past six matchups in Los Angeles.

Weather Report

Southern California in August remains ideal weather, with temperatures at 72 degrees at first pitch and wind blowing at seven miles per hour to the right-center field fence.

Dan’s Pick

The Dodgers might not have named their pitcher for this game, but the Mets are still tough to trust in this spot when they’re coming off a 12-inning game in San Francisco and still had to travel down the coast the night before. The Mets should be able to keep this one low-scoring, as Walker is good enough to slow down the Dodgers, but I can’t see them getting the win here. I’m taking Los Angeles. Note: With football on the horizon, a bankroll booster is a great way to kickoff the season! Did you know that you can deposit $100 to $300 and get a dollar for dollar matching 100% real cash bonus at MyBookie when you use our special link to sign up and use promo code PREDICT100. Free money is good money!