Lay the Money: Padres vs. Giants 4/11/22
that year 2017returns San Diego Padres (3-1) vs. San Francisco Giants (2-1)
When: 9:45 p.m., Monday, April 11
Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco
Moneyline: SD +125/SF -145
Runline: Padres +1.5/Giants -1.5
(Get the best baseball lines: MLB Dimelines
Starting Pitchers: Nick Martinez (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP) vs. Alex Wood (0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.00 WHIP)
From Hunter to Hunted
The Giants were one of the best bets in baseball last year because absolutely nobody thought that they would go from wandering the wilderness to securing the National League’s best record and claiming the NL West over the heavily favored Dodgers. The Giants have lost a couple of pieces from last year’s team, but there’s still some talent here, and the public is now fully behind San Francisco, as the moneyline movement shows.
But whether that’s a good thing depends on how well San Francisco can handle expectations. So far, the Giants have answered the bell by playing their way, playing all three games by a single run. If this trend continues, there are two possible ways to take advantage of it. The first is to back the Giants’ opponents on the run line, as San Francisco looks like the kind of team that will play a lot of tight games over the course of the year. The second is very risky, but you can back the Giants to win by exactly one run at +425. That’s definitely not a long-term strategy, but it could work out well if the Giants continue to play their opponents closely.
The way Nick Martinez pitched in Texas, it’s a wonder that he still has a job, as the 31-year-old’s final four starts for the Rangers were disastrous in 207. Martinez gave up 18 runs in 17 innings worth of work, and the Rangers put all four in the loss column. Granted, Texas was such a horror show on offense that those games probably would have been losses no matter how well Martinez pitched, but those are still not numbers that inspire confidence.
And yet, after four years in Japan Martinez returns to the MLB and winds up in the Padres’ rotation this year, which means switching to National League lineups and serving as the team’s No. 4 starter. The good news for Martinez and San Diego is that taking the No. 4 spot in the rotation for a team that knows how to hit should lead to more of these starts becoming wins for him. The bad news is that pitching against the NL hasn’t been quite the boon that it once was in recent years, as the universal DH has wiped out some of the advantages that came with pitching in the NL. How Martinez does in San Diego will depend on whether he can pitch like the 2.78 ERA he posted in June, 2017 or the 7.17 nightmare he put up in August that season.
Waiting on Success
If Martinez can’t get things ironed out, it would be welcome news to the Giants, who really isn’t hitting the ball well to start the year. Part of that was because they opened with the Marlins, who are a defense and pitching-first club-like themselves, but part is because San Francisco just isn’t getting the job done at the plate, hitting a mere .183 at the dish. The one saving grace for the Giants has been their pitching, which has an ERA of 2.89 and isn’t giving up anything easy at the plate. San Francisco has surrendered just seven walks on the year instead of the nine that the Padres gave up on Sunday to the Diamondbacks. San Diego has been a much stronger team at the plate so far, but this could be a battle of patience.
- The Padres are 2-14 in their past 16 series openers.
- The Padres are 6-15 in their past 21 road games.
- The Giants are 6-1 in their past seven Monday games.
- The Giants are 47-20 in their past 67 games overall.
- The over is 5-1 in the Padres’ past six Monday games.
- The under is 5-2 in the Padres’ past seven against the NL West.
- The over is 6-2 in the Giants’ past eight Monday games.
- The under is 5-2 in the Giants’ past seven games as a favorite.
- The over is 12-3 in the past 15 meetings.
This won’t be a great day for baseball, but it might be a great one for an over to cash. The winds are set to blow out to the bay at 27 miles per hour on a 51-degree day, which could be tough conditions for the defense.
I’m not buying that Martinez will be able to get back on track after switching leagues. The Rangers are terrible, but the way that he finished last season doesn’t inspire confidence in any way, regardless of his team.
I’ll back the Giants to get a win here.
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