Los Angeles Angels at Houston Astros Pick 7/6/19

by | Jul 6, 2019 | mlb

Los Angeles Angels (45-44) at Houston Astros (55-33)
When: 7:15 p.m., Saturday, July 6
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston

Moneyline: LAA +180/HOU -200 (5Dimes)
Runline: Angels +1.5/Astros -1.5
Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney (1-2, 5.40 ERA, 1.23 WHIP) vs. Gerrit Cole (8-5, 3.28 ERA, 1.04 WHIP)

Now or Never

If the Angels are going to be a factor in the AL West, they’ve got to make up some ground on Houston now. Los Angeles has only played three of its 19 games against the Astros, which means that while the deficit is large, it isn’t insurmountable. But Los Angeles has to perform better than it did in its series against Oakland in order to get things going.

Carrying over the offense from Friday night’s contest would make for a great start. The Angels blasted four home runs against the Astros and were able to hold on for a 5-4 win, picking up their first win of the year against Houston.

Dealing With Tragedy

No team in baseball has a tougher assignment than the Angels after the death of Tyler Skaggs, who was found unresponsive in his hotel room on Monday. When tragedy strikes a team, it can go one of two ways: it can either lead the team to decide the sport and the season are just not that important in light of what’s happened, or it can galvanize them and bring them together in an effort to do something truly unforgettable.

It’s far too early to tell which path the Angels are going to take, but early returns are encouraging. So far, Los Angeles has three wins in four games since Skaggs’ untimely passing, suggesting that the Angels are determined to play for Skaggs’ memory and try to honor him as best as they can.

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Cole Mining

Consistency, thy name is Gerrit Cole. Throughout June, Cole was as sure a bet as there was in baseball: pitch at least six innings and concede one or two earned runs. In his past seven starts, he’s gone six innings in five of them and seven innings in the other two, never giving up more than two earned runs. All but one of those has gone in the win column for the Astros, with the one exception being a 3-2 defeat to Cincinnati off the Houston bullpen. Over his past 10 starts, only once has Cole given up more than two runs — the one game that he lost, a 9-4 defeat to the White Sox where he gave up six runs in five innings.

However, questions remain as to just how good Cole has been as opposed to his work being a product of his poor schedule. His pitching has come against the Mariners, the Pirates, the Reds, the Blue Jays, the Orioles, the Athletics, and the Cubs, with only the last two serious contenders to make a run for the playoffs. Cole has pitched well all season, but it is worth asking whether he’ll regress a bit to the mean against a team that can consistently hit.

The Historicals

As stated before, the Astros have a 2-1 lead over the Angels for the season. The Angels haven’t won the season series against the Astros since they went 12-7 against Houston in 2014, which was also the last time that they won the AL West. Last year, the series went to Houston by a count of 13-6.

Betting Trends

  • The Angels are 4-1 in their past five road games.
  • The Angels are 2-9 in Heaney’s past 11 road starts against teams with a winning record.
  • The Astros are 21-5 in Cole’s past 26 home starts.
  • The Astros have won their past five home games against a left-handed starter.
  • The under is 5-0 in the Angels’ past five Game 2s.
  • The under is 4-1 in Cole’s past five starts following a quality start.

Weather Report

The night should be a good one for baseball, with temperatures set to be at 79 degrees at first pitch in Houston.

Dan’s pick

As badly as the Angels need to get a win, I just don’t see it happening here. Andrew Heaney just hasn’t been anywhere near as consistent as Cole, and the Astros are an excellent team when playing at home. Plus, Cole has been darn near unbeatable at Minute Maid Park, and while the Angels are showing signs of getting things done following the Skaggs tragedy, that doesn’t mean that I’m going to pick them against Cole in Houston.

I hate the price here, so go ahead and take the run line to give yourself some benefit to taking the Astros here. Houston needs to be the pick.

Take the Astros -1.5 runs