The Los Angeles Dodgers continue their challenging East Coast road trip as they face the New York Mets in the second game of their three-game series at Citi Field. After a marathon 13-inning win in the series opener that depleted both bullpens, Saturday night’s matchup features Tony Gonsolin for the Dodgers against the Mets’ David Peterson, who has been one of the most consistent arms in New York’s rotation this season.
Quick Picks:
– Best Bet: Mets Moneyline (-113) ★★★☆☆
– Top Prop: David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) ★★★★☆
– Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
Dodgers vs Mets Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Dodgers | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -106 | -113 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+175) |
| Total | Over 8.5 (-115) | Under 8.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Mets -115, Total 8.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The overnight lines showed some early money coming in on the Dodgers, briefly pushing them to favorites before settling back with the Mets as slight chalk. Sharp bettors appear to be targeting the under, likely factoring in last night’s exhausting 13-inning affair that depleted both bullpens. With both teams potentially running on fumes, professional money is indicating they expect a lower-scoring contest than the market suggests.
Pitching Matchup: Gonsolin vs Peterson – Who Has the Edge?
Dodgers: Tony Gonsolin (2-0, 4.05 ERA)
- 20.0 IP, 1.30 WHIP, 24 Ks
- Coming back from injury, still building up arm strength
- Averaging just over 4 innings per start
- Allowing a .261 opponent batting average
Mets: David Peterson (2-2, 2.86 ERA)
- 50.1 IP, 1.33 WHIP, 47 Ks
- Has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in all 8 starts this season
- Excellent 8.4 K/9 ratio
- Holding left-handed hitters to a .195 batting average
Advantage: Mets. Peterson has been remarkably consistent this season and is fully stretched out, while Gonsolin is still working his way back from injury and has yet to pitch more than 5 innings in any start.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both bullpens were completely taxed in last night’s marathon game. The Dodgers used 8 different relievers, while the Mets deployed 9 arms out of their pen. Neither manager will have many fresh options tonight, which puts even more pressure on the starters to deliver length. The Mets’ pen has been the better unit this season, ranking among the top 5 in ERA (2.87), while the Dodgers’ relief corps has been middle-of-the-pack (4.11 ERA).
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets are 17-6 at home this season, one of the best home records in baseball
- The Dodgers are just 13-11 on the road in 2025
- New York is 11-3 in their last 14 home games when Peterson starts
- Under is 7-3 in David Peterson’s last 10 starts
- The Dodgers are 5-1 in Gonsolin’s 6 starts since returning from injury
Player Spotlight: David Peterson’s Impressive Command
Peterson has been a revelation for the Mets this season. The left-hander has found tremendous consistency with his slider, which has become a true putaway pitch. He’s generating whiffs on 37% of swings against that pitch, and it’s helped him limit hard contact effectively. While his walk rate (3.6 BB/9) remains slightly elevated, his ability to miss bats has more than compensated for occasional control issues.
Citi Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Citi Field has played as a pitcher-friendly park this season, ranking in the bottom third for run scoring. The night air in Queens tends to keep the ball in the park, especially in the spring months. Tonight’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with light winds, conditions that should further favor the pitchers. After a long, draining game last night that stretched into the early morning hours, expect the park to play even bigger today.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Dodgers-Mets Showdown
Primary Play: Mets Moneyline (-113)
Peterson has been the more reliable pitcher this season, and the Mets’ dominant home record can’t be ignored. Gonsolin is still building up his workload after returning from injury and rarely pitches deep into games. With both bullpens depleted, the edge goes to the team with the starter more likely to provide length. The Mets’ home-field advantage should be significant here after an emotionally draining game last night.
Strong Value Play: Under 8.5 Runs (-105)
This has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair. Both teams are coming off a 13-inning marathon that ended after midnight, suggesting tired bats today. Peterson has been consistently effective this season, while Gonsolin has shown flashes of the pitcher who posted a 2.14 ERA in 2022. Most importantly, both bullpens are absolutely exhausted, meaning managers will likely ride their starters longer than usual, even if they get into some trouble.
Worth Considering: David Peterson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Peterson has recorded 6+ strikeouts in six of his eight starts this season, and the Dodgers lineup strikes out at a higher rate against left-handed pitching (24.1% K-rate vs LHP compared to 21.7% vs RHP). With the Dodgers potentially fatigued after last night’s marathon, expect Peterson to rack up the strikeouts, especially with his devastating slider.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Peterson | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Alonso | Over 1.5 Total Bases | +105 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Tony Gonsolin | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Freddie Freeman | To Record a Hit | -210 | ★★★★☆ |
Final Thoughts: Fatigue Will Be the X-Factor
After last night’s epic 13-inning battle that didn’t conclude until almost 1 AM, fatigue will play a significant role in today’s contest. The team that can shake off the physical and mental exhaustion will have a major advantage. The Mets have the more reliable starter going tonight in Peterson, which gives them a slight edge. With both bullpens depleted, the starting pitching matchup becomes even more critical than usual.
I expect Peterson to deliver a quality start while Gonsolin may struggle to give the Dodgers the length they desperately need. The home crowd will energize the Mets, and I see them bouncing back after last night’s heartbreaking loss.
Score Prediction: Mets 4, Dodgers 2
