Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets Odds & Predictions

by | Aug 15, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (71-46) vs. New York Mets (59-57)

When: 7 p.m., Sunday, August 15

Where: Citi Field, New York

Moneyline: LAD -175/NYM +160 (MyBookie.ag)

Runline: Dodgers -1.5/Mets +1.5

Total: 8

Starting Pitchers: Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) vs. Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 6.75 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

Tight Battles

So far, the Mets have actually shown that they can play with the Dodgers; they just haven’t been able actually to beat them. New York has dropped both of the first two games in this series, but both have been tight affairs, with the Mets losing each of the first two games by a single run.

However, the Mets have taken different paths to their defeats, making it harder for bettors to get a handle on them. In Friday’s loss, the Mets did what most teams do when they have success against the Dodgers: fall behind early and then take advantage of a leaky bullpen to tie or take the lead. The Mets had dug the hole a little too deep to take the lead, and that backfired when they ended up in extras and lost the game on Will Smith’s home run. They fixed that on Saturday but couldn’t generate more offense than a single run in the fourth and ended up with a 2-1 loss. Putting both halves of the equation together would make a world of difference.
You Again?

However, the Mets now have to do that against an old rival that they were likely hoping they wouldn’t have to see in 2021. Thanks to a quirk of scheduling, the Mets didn’t actually face Max Scherzer in 2021 while he was wearing the red, white, and blue of the Nationals. The Mets face the Nats 19 times a season, but each time the teams played, Scherzer always just missed starting against New York.
The Mets won’t be able to avoid him this time, and they’ll be hoping for a better showing than what they did against the veteran last season. New York scored a mere seven runs in three meetings, and the Mets even got to avoid facing Scherzer for most of the night in one of those matchups after a delay took him out of action after a single inning. In his past two full starts against the Mets, Scherzer made it six innings and struck out seven each time, and this time, he’s actually got an offense backing him up, making the Mets’ job much harder.

The Other Half

The Mets’ trade with Cleveland to acquire Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco hasn’t really worked out the way they were hoping. In the case of Carrasco, it hasn’t really worked out at all, as the pitcher tore a hamstring in training and missed the first four months of the season. Carrasco has made just three starts for New York and was expected to be the other half of what should have been a great move for the Mets, but it has been questionable at best to this point.

So far, he hasn’t pitched particularly well in his new home, having given up four runs in an inning against the Nationals (although the Mets came back to get the win) and pitching the Mets to a 6-2 loss against the Reds. He also hasn’t made it to the fifth inning of any of his starts yet, which suggests that this could be a bullpen game.

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 5-1 in their past six games overall.
  • The Dodgers are 4-1 in their past five games against the NL East.
  • The Mets have dropped five straight as an underdog.
  • The Mets are 16-7 in their past 23 games against the NL West.
  • The under is 3-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past five against a team with a winning record.
  • The under is 10-4-2 in the Dodgers’ past 16 against the NL East.
  • The under is 4-0 in the Mets’ past four games against a team above .600.
  • The under is 7-3-1 in the Mets’ past 11 Game 3’s of a series.
  • The Dodgers are 22-7 in the past 29 meetings in New York.
  • The over is 7-3 in the past ten meetings.

Weather Report

It’s going to be better than it’s been in recent days in New York, with temperatures sitting at 82 degrees and humidity, not a factor. However, the wind won’t help much, as it’ll only blow at four miles per hour toward the third-base dugout.

Dan’s Pick

There’s just too much going on here not to take the Dodgers. Scherzer knows this opponent well and should be very comfortable pitching in the east again. Scherzer had a similar situation against the Phillies earlier in the week at Citizens Bank Park and was dominant, holding Philadelphia to three hits in 3.1 innings of work before the rains came.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor in this one, but with the Mets keeping things close, I can’t really trust the Dodgers on the run line. I think they’ll win, but I’d rather either pair the Dodgers with the under or simply eat the juice in this matchup. Give me Los Angeles. Bet your pick FREE by taking advantage of the best small sportsbook bonus on the web! –> Deposit $25 and get an additional $50 free! Simply register, deposit $25 and then go to their promotions page and enter ROOKIE200 and the credit will be made to your betting account! Click here to sign up now!