Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Pick 6/21/21

by | Jun 21, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (44-27) vs. San Diego Padres (42-32)

When: 10 p.m., Monday, June 21

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: LAD +110/SD -120 (Dimeline Sportsbooks >>> Don’t waste money on odds! Make sure you’re betting at the cheapest prices! Not all odds are created equal!)

Runline: Dodgers +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 6.5

Starting Pitchers: Julio Urias (9-2, 3.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) vs. Yu Darvish (6-2, 2.57 ERA, 0.95 WHIP)

Welcome to the New Age

If it feels a little strange to you to see the Dodgers with plus money next to their name, it should. Los Angeles hasn’t been an underdog since Oct. 7, 2019, in a playoff matchup with the Nationals, a streak of 150 regular season and postseason games. Last year, the Dodgers were considered so superior to everyone that they were favored to win literally every time they took the field, even against Atlanta and Tampa Bay.

It’s taken until game 72 of this season for a team to be favored to beat Los Angeles, and it took Yu Darvish and a four-game winning streak in order to make it happen. Truthfully, it makes sense that the Padres are the team who will be favored here, as they’ve done a solid job against the Dodgers in 2021, winning four of the teams’ seven matchups this season.

Getting It Up

The total, however, seems a tad absurd given what has usually happened when Darvish pitches. This is the fifth time in 11 starts that Darvish will pitch with a total of 6.5 runs. So far, he’s gone 3-1 to the over. That includes a matchup against the Dodgers themselves, who couldn’t get much of anything going against Darvish, scoring a mere one run and only collecting four hits on the night.

However, the over still cashed that night because the San Diego offense has really made sure to get the job done when Darvish is on the hill. Over Darvish’s past seven starts, the over has cashed six times, in large part because the Padres have scored at least four runs in all except the game that went under. When the totals are set as low as they have been for Darvish, all it takes is a good night from the Padres’ offense, and it doesn’t matter what the other side does at the plate. In three of Darvish’s past six starts, the Padres scored enough runs to hit the over on their own.

Under the Radar

Whether they can do that against Urias, however, is an open question. For most of the year, Urias has been an unsung hero for the Dodgers’ staff, as he doesn’t get anywhere near the attention that Walker Buehler or Clayton Kershaw does, yet he’s still come up with a glittering 9-2 record. Unlike a lot of top pitchers these days, Urias doesn’t have to miss bats to be successful. He can do exactly that, as he’s recorded ten strikeouts twice in his past ten starts, but as long as he’s holding opponents to three runs or less, he’s getting the job done pretty well.

In recent weeks, he’s consistently given up one mistake that gets deposited into the seats per start, but that mistake is often the only scoring chance teams get. In a win over the Braves, a solo shot was all Atlanta got of Urias, while the Giants could only manage one two-run homer until the game went over to the bullpen. For the most part, as long as Urias is in the game, good things tend to happen for the Dodgers in terms of run prevention.

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 41-14 in their past 55 against the NL West.
  • The Dodgers are 40-14 in their past 54 after allowing five runs or more the game before.
  • The Padres have won six straight home games against left-handed starters.
  • The Padres are 20-6 in their past 26 home games.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Dodgers’ past six against the NL West.
  • The over is 5-1 in the Padres’ past six overall games.
  • The Dodgers are 35-17 in the past 52 meetings in San Diego.

Weather Report

Wind will likely make it even tougher than usual to get the ball out of Petco Park, as winds are scheduled to blow in toward the first-base dugout at 10 miles per hour. The temperatures will be a bit cool for Southern California, as it’s projected to be 68 degrees at first pitch.

Dan’s pick

Getting the Dodgers at plus money seems too good to pass up, especially given the fact that the Padres have dropped two in a row with Darvish starting. Granted, those were against the Cubs and on the road against the Rockies, but it’s still anyone’s guess as to whether the Padres will be back on the same page with their ace.

I’ll take the Dodgers as the underdog in this one. Bet your baseball picks FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus code PREDICT100).