Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants Pick 7/28/21

by | Jul 28, 2021 | mlb

Los Angeles Dodgers (61-41) vs. San Francisco Giants (63-37)

When: 9:45 p.m., Wednesday, July 28

Where: Oracle Park, San Francisco

Moneyline: LAD -135/SF +125

Runline: Dodgers +1.5/Giants -1.5

Total: 7.5

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Starting Pitchers: Walker Buehler (10-1, 2.31 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (10-4, 2.87 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Marquee Matchup

This is about as close as it gets to a top-pitching matchup in this day and age. Buehler and DeSclafani have been two of the strongest pitchers in the game this season, as both go long into games, keep their teams close, and rarely give up more than a couple of runs in the contest. Both went at least six innings in seven of their past eight starts, and neither has given up more than three runs in a game since May.

That’s something baseball has mostly been missing this season, as few games match a pair of pitchers who can genuinely take over the game based strictly on their ability to shut down the opposing lineup. Both pitchers have shown that they can do that, and the tight race in the NL West makes this one of the few appointment games on the schedule during the baseball grind.

Total Control

In recent years, Walker Buehler has become the Dodgers’ most reliable pitcher, a homegrown ace who has put in his time and become one of the best in the game. One thing that hasn’t changed during his rise has been his mastery of the Giants, something he seemed to innately have the moment he arrived in Hollywood.

Since becoming a starter, Buehler has never been the losing pitcher against San Francisco, and the Giants getting a win with him on the mound on July 22 marked the first time they had ever done so when Buehler started the game. Overall, the Dodgers are 6-1 against the Giants with Buehler on the mound, and he’s been the winning pitcher on six occasions. What has to concern San Francisco is that unlike a lot of power pitchers, Buehler doesn’t have to pitch a certain way to succeed against them. Getting strikeouts has worked well in the past, but earlier this year, he had just five strikeouts against the Giants and still emerged victorious.

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Late-Season Form Change

DeSclafani wasn’t supposed to be in this position after posting a terrible 2020 in Cincinnati, but now that he’s here and the Giants are right in the division race and own the best record in baseball, he’s one of the guys expected to keep it that way. So far, he’s doing a serviceable job, but a worrying trend has seen some of those long singles and doubles turn into home runs, as he’s given up five moon shots in his past four starts.

The good news for the Giants is those mistakes have usually come with nobody on base, but in a game like this, where runs will likely be at a premium, even one mistake could be critical.

Betting Trends

  • The Dodgers are 0-4 in their past four Wednesday games.
  • The Dodgers are 66-31 in their past 97 games against the NL West.
  • The Giants are 5-1 in their past six games as an underdog.
  • The Giants are 16-5 in their past 21 against the NL West.
  • The under is 4-1-1 in the Dodgers’ past six games.
  • The under is 9-3-1 in the Giants’ past 13 games as an underdog.
  • The over is 5-2 in the teams’ past seven meetings in San Francisco.
  • The Dodgers have won 10 of the last 12 meetings between the teams in San Francisco.

Weather Report

Once again, it’s going to be a chilly night in San Francisco, with temperatures starting at 62 degrees and dropping into the 50s. Wind will not help the pitchers, as it’ll be 10 miles per hour going out to left-center.

Dan’s Pick

Buehler’s long-term success against the Giants says that Los Angeles is the right way to go in this matchup. DeSclafani has pitched well this season, but with the number of home runs he’s giving up as of late, I’m a little worried about backing him in a game that I expect will be incredibly low-scoring. These teams know how to keep runs off the board, and both have shown that they can handle the opposing lineup. Give me the Dodgers here. Bet your MLB picks FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!