The American League Championship Series gets underway tonight as the Toronto Blue Jays host the Seattle Mariners at Rogers Centre. Game 1 sets the tone for what’s expected to be a grinding, pitching-driven matchup between two clubs built on bullpen depth and situational hitting. Toronto returns to the ALCS stage for the first time since 2016 after dispatching Milwaukee in four, while Seattle advanced past Houston in five. With both teams carrying momentum and elite late-inning arms, this opener has the feel of a low-scoring chess match in front of a raucous Toronto crowd.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (−168) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (−150) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 8 Runs (−115) ★★★☆☆
Mariners vs Blue Jays Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +140 | −168 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (−150) | −1.5 (+130) |
| Total | Over 8 (−105) | Under 8 (−115) |
Opening Line: Blue Jays −160 | Total 8 | First Pitch: 7:07 PM ET — Thursday, October 9, 2025 at Rogers Centre
Sharp Money Analysis
Early bettors sided with Toronto, nudging the number from −160 to −168 on home-field strength and bullpen rest. The run-line juice moving toward Seattle (+1.5 −150) shows market respect for their ability to hang around in one-run games. The total’s held firm at 8 with light pressure on the Under (−115). Sharp consensus models project around 7.3 combined runs — a nod to how efficient both pitching staffs have been this postseason.
Pitching Matchup: Drew Pomeranz vs Trevor Megill (Bullpen Game)
Seattle Mariners — Drew Pomeranz (LHP, 1–0, 1.50 ERA)
- Veteran lefty being used as an opener with six scoreless postseason innings to date.
- No walks, six strikeouts — elite command in short stints.
- Seattle 5–1 in games he’s opened this postseason.
- Faces a right-leaning Toronto order ranked 8th in OPS vs LHP (.763).
Toronto Blue Jays — Trevor Megill (RHP, 0–0, 0.00 ERA)
- Expected to open another bullpen game after two scoreless frames in the ALDS clincher.
- Average 97 mph fastball with heavy swing-and-miss upside (9.7 K/9 career).
- Toronto relievers (3.76 ERA) allowed just 2 ER in 15.1 ALDS innings.
- Manager John Schneider plans to mix arms through six before handing off to Jeff Hoffman (34 saves).
Edge: Toronto — deeper bullpen, stronger matchups, and home control give the Jays the Game 1 edge.
Bullpen Breakdown
Seattle’s relief corps remains its backbone, led by Andres Muñoz (3 saves, 1.17 ERA) and Matt Brash. Toronto counters with Hoffman, Brendon Little (31 holds), and Louis Varland (23 holds). Both units rank top five in postseason ERA, but Toronto’s rest and flexibility slightly tip the scale.
Key Trends & Series Stats
- Toronto 53–28 at home (65.4%) — best mark remaining in the AL playoffs.
- Seattle 38–43 on the road; 2–5 at Rogers Centre since 2024.
- Mariners Under in 58% of road games this season.
- Blue Jays 45–29 as home favorites in 2025.
- Combined bullpen ERA this postseason: 3.38.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Toronto’s Power Anchor
Guerrero has caught fire at the perfect time, slashing .342 /.415 /.658 with five home runs and 13 RBIs over his last 12 games. He’s handled lefties with ease (.328 BA vs LHP) and thrives in front of the home crowd, where his career OPS sits near .880. His Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs prop (−150) remains the most trustworthy angle on the board.
Daulton Varsho: X-Factor on Both Sides of the Ball
Varsho has been Toronto’s most versatile performer this postseason, posting a .391 OBP with two homers and six runs scored while providing elite defense in left. His +115 RBI prop offers value given his recent situational consistency.
Rogers Centre Factor
Rogers Centre ranks 19th in run factor (0.975) but slightly boosts home runs (1.011). With the roof closed and temperatures in the low 60s, conditions should favor pitchers. Toronto hits .272 at home compared to Seattle’s .234 road average, suggesting another tight, low-scoring affair.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for ALCS Game 1
Primary Play: Toronto Blue Jays Moneyline (−168)
Toronto’s bullpen depth, home comfort, and recent momentum make them the right side to open the series. Seattle’s offense has averaged just 3.4 runs this postseason and faces a fresh, power-arm rotation throughout the night. Even at a premium price, the Jays are the side worth backing tonight.
Strong Value Play: Under 8 (−115)
Two shutdown bullpens, two short-leash openers, and a cool controlled environment set up another tactical October Under. Sharps project seven runs flat — this still has value at 8.
Worth Considering: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (−150)
Guerrero’s locked-in approach against lefties and big-moment track record make this a high-confidence prop play. He’s cleared this number in seven of his last ten games.
Player Props to Target
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | −150 | ★★★★☆ |
| Daulton Varsho | Over 0.5 RBI | +115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Julio Rodríguez | Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | −130 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Cal Raleigh | Under 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs | −130 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Toronto Sets the Tone at Home
With both clubs built around elite pitching, expect a methodical Game 1 where the bullpens and Guerrero’s bat decide it. Toronto’s home-field advantage and offensive consistency should carry them through a tight series opener.
Score Prediction: Blue Jays 4, Mariners 2
