The New York Mets (83-78) head to the Windy City to face the Chicago Cubs (90-70) in a late-season showdown at Wrigley Field. This matchup features a significant pitching disparity with rookie Jonah Tong making just his fifth career start against the veteran Matthew Boyd, who has quietly been one of the Cubs’ most consistent arms in 2025. With Chicago fighting for playoff positioning and the Mets’ postseason hopes hanging by a thread, this Wednesday night matchup has significant implications for both teams’ October aspirations.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: Chicago Cubs ML (-124) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 7 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
New York Mets vs Chicago Cubs Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Mets | Chicago Cubs |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | +104 | -124 |
| Run Line | +1.5 (-220) | -1.5 (+180) |
| Total | Over 7.0 (-115) | Under 7.0 (-105) |
Opening Line: Cubs -120, Total 7.0
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been telling. Opening at Cubs -120, we’ve seen a modest push toward Chicago, now sitting at -124. This subtle movement despite public sentiment suggests sharp money favors the home team behind the veteran Boyd. Even more interesting is the juice on the total, which has shifted toward the over (-115) despite Wrigley Field ranking as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks this season (0.898 run factor, 26th in MLB). Professional bettors appear to see value in the Cubs’ moneyline and potentially the over, though the movement hasn’t been dramatic enough to suggest overwhelming action in either direction.
Pitching Matchup: Jonah Tong vs Matthew Boyd – Who Has the Edge?
New York Mets: Jonah Tong (2-2, 5.94 ERA)
- The 23-year-old rookie has struggled with consistency in his first four MLB starts
- Has allowed at least 3 earned runs in three of his four outings
- High strikeout potential (21 Ks in 16.2 innings) but concerning command issues (7 walks)
- Opponents hitting .286 against him with a concerning 1.44 WHIP
Chicago Cubs: Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20 ERA)
- Veteran southpaw enjoying a career renaissance season with the Cubs
- Exceptional control with just 41 walks in 174.1 innings (2.1 BB/9)
- Has been particularly effective at Wrigley with a 2.89 home ERA
- Coming off three consecutive quality starts, allowing just 4 earned runs in his last 19 innings
Advantage: Significant edge to Chicago. Boyd’s experience, command, and consistency provide a stark contrast to Tong’s rookie volatility. The Cubs lefty has been remarkably steady at home, while Tong has yet to find his footing at the major league level.
Bullpen Breakdown
Both bullpens have been strengths for their respective teams, but the Mets hold a slight edge in high-leverage situations. New York’s late-inning trio of Edwin Diaz (27 saves), Ryan Helsley (21 saves), and Tyler Rogers (30 holds) has been among the most reliable in baseball. The Cubs counter with Daniel Palencia (22 saves) and a committee approach featuring Brad Keller (25 holds) and Caleb Thielbar (23 holds). While the Mets might have more recognizable names, both units rank in the top 10 in bullpen ERA over the last 30 days. If this game stays close into the later innings, New York’s experienced closer tandem could neutralize Chicago’s home-field advantage, though Boyd’s ability to work deep into games may limit the Mets’ bullpen advantage.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- Chicago is 53-26 at Wrigley Field this season, one of the best home records in the National League
- The Mets are just 36-44 on the road and 21-32 when facing left-handed starters
- Cubs are 17-9 in Matthew Boyd’s starts this season, including 10-3 at home
- Under is 8-2 in the Cubs’ last 10 home games against teams with losing road records
- Chicago has won 6 of their last 8 games when favored at home
- The Cubs have gone 15-6 in their last 21 September home games
- New York is just 4-11 in their last 15 games at Wrigley Field
- Chicago’s defense has been significantly better, committing 0.39 errors per game compared to New York’s 0.48
Francisco Lindor vs. Left-Handed Pitching: A Critical Matchup
Francisco Lindor has been the offensive catalyst for the Mets this season, but his splits against left-handed pitching present a concerning pattern for New York in this matchup. While Lindor remains dangerous against all pitchers, his OPS drops nearly 80 points when facing southpaws compared to right-handers. Boyd’s ability to neutralize switch-hitters with his deceptive delivery and excellent changeup could limit Lindor’s impact as the table-setter for the Mets offense. If Boyd can contain Lindor at the top of the order, it significantly reduces New York’s chances of generating consistent offense, especially with a Cubs bullpen that features multiple left-handed options to maintain the matchup advantage in later innings.
Wrigley Field Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
Wrigley Field has been playing as one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball this season, ranking 26th in run factor (0.898) and 25th in home run factor (0.883). The venue’s characteristics should further benefit Boyd, who thrives on inducing weak contact rather than relying exclusively on strikeouts. Evening games at Wrigley in September typically feature cooler temperatures and less carry, which compounds the difficulty for hitters. The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-60s with light winds blowing in from right field, creating conditions that should further suppress offense. Boyd’s pitch-to-contact approach plays perfectly into these conditions, while Tong’s occasional command issues could be magnified in a setting where precise location becomes even more crucial.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Cubs Showdown
Primary Play: Chicago Cubs ML (-124)
I’m backing the Cubs on the moneyline as my strongest play. The pitching matchup heavily favors Chicago with the experienced Boyd (3.20 ERA) facing rookie Tong (5.94 ERA). Boyd’s exceptional command (2.1 BB/9) should play well against a Mets lineup that can be exploited by left-handed pitching. Add in Chicago’s stellar 53-26 home record and the Cubs’ 17-9 mark in Boyd’s starts, and laying -124 offers solid value. The Cubs’ ability to limit errors (0.39 per game vs. Mets’ 0.48) provides another edge in what should be a low-scoring affair. I’d play this up to -135.
Strong Value Play: Under 7 Runs (-105)
Wrigley Field has suppressed offense all season (0.898 run factor), and tonight’s conditions favor pitchers even more with temperatures in the mid-60s and winds blowing in. Boyd has been exceptionally reliable at home with a 2.89 ERA at Wrigley, while even the struggling Tong should benefit from the park conditions. Both bullpens rank in the top 10 in ERA over the last month, providing late-inning reinforcement for the starters. The under is 8-2 in the Cubs’ last 10 home games against teams with losing road records, and I expect that trend to continue tonight.
Worth Considering: Matthew Boyd Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120)
Boyd has been quietly efficient at generating swings and misses, averaging 7.8 K/9 this season. The Mets strike out at an above-average rate (8.16 K/game), providing Boyd with a favorable matchup. He’s recorded 6+ strikeouts in four of his last five home starts, and the Mets’ aggressive approach at the plate should create plenty of opportunities for the veteran lefty. With Boyd likely to pitch into the 6th or 7th inning given his efficiency and the Cubs’ preference to maximize his outings, the strikeout total should clear this modest threshold.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew Boyd | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | -120 | ★★★★☆ |
| Jonah Tong | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Cody Bellinger | To Record an RBI | +145 | ★★★★☆ |
| Francisco Lindor | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -110 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Experience and Home-Field Advantage Prove Decisive
When analyzing this matchup comprehensively, the Cubs hold distinct advantages in starting pitching, home-field advantage, and defensive efficiency. Matthew Boyd’s veteran presence and command should prove particularly valuable against a Mets team that struggles on the road and against left-handed pitching. While New York’s bullpen might have more household names, Chicago’s reliable home performance and Boyd’s ability to work deep into games mitigates this potential advantage. The unfavorable hitting conditions at Wrigley further tip the scales toward a lower-scoring Cubs victory.
Score Prediction: Chicago Cubs 4, New York Mets 2
