Sunday’s series finale at PNC Park features the struggling New York Mets (48-36) against the last-place Pittsburgh Pirates (34-50). The Mets have dropped 12 of their last 15 games and are coming off a players-only meeting following Saturday’s 9-2 blowout loss. I’m eyeing a potential bounce-back spot for New York behind returning starter Frankie Montas, who looked sharp in his season debut last week, especially against a Pirates team that’s been inconsistent despite taking the first two games of this series.
Quick Picks:
- Best Bet: New York Mets -1.5 (+105) ★★★★☆
- Top Prop: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115) ★★★★☆
- Value Play: Under 9.5 Runs (-105) ★★★☆☆
New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Odds & Latest Line Movement
| Market | New York Mets | Pittsburgh Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -157 | +132 |
| Run Line | -1.5 (+105) | +1.5 (-125) |
| Total | Over 9.5 (-115) | Under 9.5 (-105) |
Opening Line: Mets -150, Total 9.5
Sharp Money Analysis: Where Pro Bettors Are Placing Their Wagers
The line movement on this game has been telling. The Mets opened as -150 favorites and have been bet up slightly to -157 despite their recent struggles, indicating professional bettors still believe in New York’s talent edge. The sharp money seems hesitant to back Pittsburgh despite their back-to-back wins in this series, likely viewing those results as outliers rather than indicators of team strength. The total has held steady at 9.5, though there’s been some movement toward the under with the juice shifting from -110 to -105, suggesting some respect for both starting pitchers.
Pitching Matchup: Frankie Montas vs Michael Burrows – Who Has the Edge?
New York Mets: Frankie Montas (0-0, 0.00 ERA)
- Pitched 5 scoreless innings in his season debut after recovering from injury
- Showed excellent command with just 3 walks against 5 strikeouts
- Fastball velocity was strong, averaging 95.4 mph in his first start
- Has historically performed well against Pirates hitters (.212 BAA)
Pittsburgh Pirates: Michael Burrows (1-2, 4.45 ERA)
- Young right-hander has been inconsistent in his six starts this season
- Solid K/BB ratio with 30 strikeouts to just 9 walks in 30.1 innings
- Has allowed at least 3 earned runs in four of his six starts
- Struggles to go deep into games, averaging just 5 innings per start
Advantage: New York Mets. Montas looked sharp in his season debut and brings veteran presence and experience that Burrows lacks. While sample size for Montas is limited this season, his track record and first outing suggest he’s healthy and ready to contribute.
Bullpen Breakdown
The Mets’ bullpen has been a strength this season despite their recent struggles. Edwin Diaz (1.99 ERA, 16 saves) has been excellent as the closer, and Reed Garrett has emerged as a reliable setup man with 14 holds. The unit as a whole ranks 7th in MLB with a 3.61 ERA. The Pirates’ bullpen has been surprisingly effective with a 3.78 ERA (10th in MLB), anchored by closer David Bednar (11 saves) and setup men Dennis Santana and Caleb Ferguson. However, Pittsburgh’s relievers have been taxed in this series, throwing 8 innings on Friday and Saturday combined. The Mets have the slight edge here, especially with their bullpen being more rested after several relievers got Saturday off.
Key Betting Trends & Team Statistics That Matter
- The Mets are 19-24 on the road this season but 37-24 as favorites
- Pittsburgh is 22-21 at home but just 22-38 as underdogs this season
- The Pirates have won the first two games of this series and lead the season series 3-2
- The Mets have scored just 3 runs total in the first two games of this series
- Juan Soto has been hot in June with a 1.214 OPS and remains productive despite team struggles
- The Pirates are 8-5 in their last 13 home games despite their overall poor record
- The under is 7-3 in the Mets’ last 10 road games
- PNC Park ranks 5th in MLB in runs factor (1.054) but below average for home runs (0.893)
Juan Soto’s Impact: The Lone Bright Spot in Mets’ Recent Slide
While the Mets as a team have struggled mightily over the past few weeks, Juan Soto has continued to produce at an elite level. His June OPS of 1.214 showcases his ability to carry an offense, and he’s been one of the few Mets making consistent hard contact. According to sources, Soto was vocal in Saturday’s players-only meeting, urging teammates to “keep believing.” Against a young pitcher like Burrows who has struggled with consistency, Soto should find plenty of pitches to drive, making his total bases prop one of the most attractive plays on the board.
PNC Park Factor: How the Venue Influences Today’s Game
PNC Park has played as a hitter-friendly venue this season, ranking 5th in MLB with a 1.054 runs factor. However, it suppresses home runs significantly with a 0.893 HR factor. The spacious left field and quirky dimensions can frustrate pull-happy right-handed hitters but reward those who use the whole field. Sunday’s forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with light winds, conditions that shouldn’t dramatically impact the game. The Mets’ lineup features several hitters who can use all fields (Soto, Nimmo, Lindor), potentially giving them an advantage in this ballpark. This venue should benefit contact hitters and gap-to-gap power more than pure home run threats.
Expert Prediction & Best Bets for Mets-Pirates Showdown
Primary Play: New York Mets -1.5 (+105)
I’m backing the Mets on the run line at plus money here. Saturday’s players-only meeting should spark some urgency, and Frankie Montas gives them a significant starting pitching advantage. The Mets have too much talent to continue this slide, and getting them at plus money to win by multiple runs against a last-place Pirates team is excellent value. Pittsburgh has overachieved in the first two games of this series, but regression is coming. I expect the Mets to jump on Burrows early and build a comfortable lead.
Strong Value Play: Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Soto has been the lone bright spot in the Mets’ recent offensive struggles, posting a stellar 1.214 OPS in June. He’s seeing the ball extremely well and should get plenty of good pitches to hit against Burrows, who has struggled with consistency. Soto’s approach is perfect for PNC Park, as he uses the entire field and can exploit the gaps in this spacious outfield. At near even money, this prop offers substantial value given Soto’s current form.
Worth Considering: Under 9.5 Runs (-105)
Despite PNC Park’s hitter-friendly tendencies this season, I’m leaning toward the under. Montas looked sharp in his season debut, tossing 5 scoreless innings, and the Mets’ bullpen has been solid overall. The Mets’ offense has been anemic lately, scoring just 3 runs total in the first two games of this series. While I expect them to break out somewhat today, a high-scoring affair seems unlikely given their recent form. The under has hit in 7 of the Mets’ last 10 road games, adding support to this position.
Player Props Worth Targeting in Today’s Matchup
| Player | Prop | Odds | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | Over 1.5 Total Bases | -115 | ★★★★☆ |
| Frankie Montas | Over 5.5 Strikeouts | +115 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Francisco Lindor | To Record an RBI | +145 | ★★★★☆ |
| Pete Alonso | To Hit a Home Run | +320 | ★★★☆☆ |
| Oneil Cruz | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 | ★★★☆☆ |
Final Thoughts: Mets Poised for Bounce-Back Performance
The New York Mets are in a perfect spot to break out of their slump today. After a players-only meeting and with the pressure mounting, I expect to see a focused, determined team on the field Sunday. Frankie Montas gives them a significant edge on the mound, and the Pirates have likely exhausted their offensive output for this series. While Pittsburgh has been surprisingly competitive at home this season, the talent disparity between these teams is substantial. Look for the Mets to salvage the final game of this series with a convincing win that helps right the ship as they move forward.
Score Prediction: New York Mets 6, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
