Miami Marlins vs. San Diego Padres Pick 5/6/22

Miami Marlins (12-13) vs. San Diego Padres (17-9)

When: 9:40 p.m., Friday, May 6

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: MIA +110/SD -130 (Mybookie – Offers Predictem readers a SPECIAL 100% real cash bonus up to $300 when you sign up through our special link and use bonus code PREDICT100.)

Runline: Marlins +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 6.5

Starting Pitchers: Sandy Alcantara (2-1, 2.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) vs. Yu Darvish (2-1, 4.44 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

Close But No Cigar

If you’ve been betting the Marlins on the money line this week, you’ve probably had to replenish your bankroll. If you’ve been betting Miami on the runline, on the other hand, you’ve been making money all week. Miami has lost five straight games, but the Marlins managed to lose four out of five by exactly one run.

Eventually, something has to go right for this team, whether it’s getting better work from its starting pitching, not blowing a lead in the ninth inning, or getting the offense to start producing before the seventh inning, all of which have happened this week. Miami wasn’t expected to be a playoff team this year anyway, so these are likely the kind of growing pains that come with a young team learning how to win at this level. The Marlins will be a stronger bet later this season, but that point might not have arrived yet.

One Bad Day

If you’re looking at just the ERA and WHIP numbers, you might wonder how the Padres are favored when they’re sending out Yu Darvish, whose ERA hasn’t exactly been lighting the world on fire. But Darvish has actually been lights out for most of the season, other than one awful showing against the Giants in his second start of the year.

If you take out that nine-run performance in 1.2 innings of work, Darvish’s ERA would become a sparkling 1.46, which is why he’s being treated as an ace pitcher going against a fellow ace. As long as he hasn’t had to face off with San Francisco, Darvish has excelled at getting hitters out and has gotten his strikeout numbers up over his past three appearances, fanning almost seven batters per start. With the Marlins ranking eighth in MLB in strikeouts, Darvish might be in for another day of making batters miss.

Redemption Tour?

Maybe the experts were a year early on the Padres. Maybe the Padres got stage fright and weren’t really ready for the moment of being one of the favorites, especially with the Giants coming out of nowhere in 2021. Whatever the reason, San Diego was the biggest disappointment in baseball in 2021, and the Padres are being priced like it in 2022.

And because of that, the Padres have emerged as a solid play in 2022 — so far. There are questions about whether this has more to do with San Diego’s weak schedule to start the year, as the Padres have already played 11 games with the Reds, Pirates, and Guardians, none of whom are likely to be anywhere close to a playoff spot when the season is over (and Cincinnati might be lucky to avoid 100 losses by the end of the season). The Padres have lost series to both the Dodgers and Giants, which says that this team might not be quite as good as its record indicates. But for now, they’ve looked like a solid bet.

Betting Trends

• The Marlins have dropped five straight against the NL West.
• The Marlins are 19-47 in their past 66 road games.
• The Padres are 6-2 in their past eight home games.
• The Padres are 9-2 in their past 11 games as the favorite.
• The under is 4-0 in the Marlins’ past four road games.
• The under is 8-2 in the Marlins’ past 10 games against an opponent who gave up two runs or less in the previous game.
• The over is 7-0 in the Padres’ past seven games after a win.
• The under is 4-0 in the Padres’ past four games against the NL East.
• The Marlins are 3-7 in the past 10 matchups in San Diego.
• The under is 7-3 in the teams’ past 10 meetings.

Weather Report

It’s expected to be a clear, comfortable night in San Diego, with temperatures at 65 degrees at first pitch and wind blowing down the right-field line at six miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

I’m not completely sold on San Diego, even with their glittering record. At the same time, the Marlins are in a funk right now and keep finding a way to lose each night, even though they’re keeping the game close. Throw in Miami’s poor road record, and I think the value lies with San Diego in this one.

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