Dog of the Day: Brewers at Cubs Pick
Time: 8:05 PM ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
Listed Pitchers: Chase Anderson (Mil) vs. Kyle Hendricks (Chic)
TV: ESPN, FS Wisconsin, ABC 7 Chicago
Moneyline: Brewers +140/Cubs -150
Milwaukee and the Cubs, battling it out in the NL Central, play a big rubber match Wednesday night at the Friendly Confines. How are we playing this nationally televised contest with our daily free MLB picks?
MLB Betting Line
Wednesday’s MLB betting odds opened Chicago at around -145 for this game, with an over/under yet to be determined. The early betting action then bumped that line about a nickel, up to -150.
These teams have split the first two games of this series, the Brewers winning Monday night 3-2, the Cubs taking Tuesday’s game 3-0. Milwaukee cashed as +120 dogs Monday, while Chicago won as -130 favorites Tuesday.
Even with Tuesday’s loss, the Brewers are 10-3 over their last 13 games.
With Tuesday’s victory, the Cubs are still only 6-7 over their last 13 games.
Big-picture, at 84-60 overall Chicago now leads the NL Central by just two games over 83-63 Milwaukee, with St. Louis lurking 3.5 games back. The Cubs also own the best record in the National League.
The Brewers also now lead the NL wild-card race by 1.5 games over the second-place Cardinals and by three games over the third-place Dodgers.
The Cubs lead the season series with Milwaukee 11 games to seven.
Hendricks (11-10, 3.71), by our strict standards, is 12/29 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Thursday he gave up four runs in five innings against Washington, but only one of those runs was earned. And over his last four starts, he’s held opponents to just four ER through 25 innings. On the season Chicago is 15-14 with Hendricks, with the totals skewing under by a 19-10 margin.
In three starts previously this season against Milwaukee Hendricks allowed eight runs and 20 hits through 18 innings. The Cubs went 2-1 in those games, with overs going 2-1.
Anderson (9-7, 3.95) is 11/28 on quality starts this year, and 0 for his last three. But some of that is thanks to a short leash. Last Friday he limited San Francisco to two runs through five innings, and just before that he held Washington to one run through five frames. On the year Milwaukee is 15-13 with Anderson, with unders going 16-10.
In three starts this year against the Cubbies Anderson gave up just three runs and 10 hits through 20 innings. Thanks to poor run support the Brewers only won one of those games, and all three games played under.
Anderson also, for whatever reasons, owns a crazy day/night split this season. During the day he’s 1-5 with a 5.27 ERA; at night he’s 8-2/3.16.
We’ll give Milwaukee our handicapping check-mark for this pitching match-up.
Wednesday’s Batting Splits
The Brew Crew owns a .254/.323/.426 batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against right-handed pitching this season.
The Cubs own a .262/.338/.424 split against righties this year. But LH stick Kyle Schwarber (25 HR) missed Tuesday’s game with a sore back and is iffy for Wednesday.
We’ll call the battle of the bats a push in this spot.
The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.74 ERA and a 1.29 WHIP. Also, after a rough stretch during which this unit was down a couple of regulars, they’ve been better as of late.
The Cubs pen owns a 3.36 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP.
We’ll call the bullpen comparison a push, too.
Unders are 38-31 in games played at Wrigley Field this year, which are averaging 9.4 total runs per.
Unders are 13-5 in Brewers-Cubs games this season, which have trended very low-scoring.
Free MLB Picks
Milwaukee gets our pick in the pitching match-up, it’s been the hotter of the two teams as of late, and it’s getting the underdog price. We’re betting the Brewers who are +149 at BetOnline, with our free MLB pick for Wednesday.