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Free Pick: Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals 9/25/18

by | Sep 25, 2018 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals 9/25/18

Time: 8:15 PM ET
Where: Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO
Listed Pitchers: Gio Gonzalez (Mil) vs. Austin Gomber (St. L)
TV: FS Midwest, FS Wisconsin
Moneyline: Brewers +110/Cardinals -120
Over/Under: 8.5

Milwaukee and St. Louis both continue their quests for playoff spots with the middle game of a big three-game series at Busch. The Brewers got some late-game heroics to take Monday night’s game, cutting their magic number for a wild-card berth to three and cashed in as an underdog on the MLB betting odds in the process. How are we playing Tuesday’s contest with our daily free MLB picks?

MLB Betting Line

Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened St. Louis at around -115 for this game, with an over/under of 8.5 runs. The early betting action then bumped that line up to -120.

The Cardinals could also be found getting upwards of +170 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Set-Up

Milwaukee grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 6-4. St. Louis led that game 4-3 through six innings, but the Brewers scored once in each of the last three innings to steal the victory and the cash as +135 dogs on the MLB dime line.

Milwaukee went full bullpen Monday night, using a reliever to get the first out of the game, eventually using nine pitchers to get the needed 27 outs. But it worked.

With the win, the Brew Crew is 4-1 over its last five games.

Even with the loss, the Cardinals are 6-2 over their last eight games.

At 90-67 overall Milwaukee now trails the division-leading Cubs by just a game and a half in the NL Central race. The Brewers also lead the NL wild-card race by three games over second-place St. Louis and 3.5 games over third-place Colorado, with just five games to play.

At 87-70 the Cardinals are 4.5 games back of the Cubs in the divisional race and their lead in the battle for that second NL wild-card spot is down to a half-game over the Rockies.

Milwaukee leads this season series with St. Louis nine games to eight.

Tuesday’s Starters

Rookie lefty Gomber (6-1, 3.63), by our strict standards, is 4/10 on quality starts this season and 0 for his last three. Last Tuesday he held Atlanta to one run through five innings, but in his two starts previous to that he gave up 10 runs and 15 hits through nine innings. On the season St. Louis is 8-2 in Gomber’s starts, with the totals splitting 5-5.

In one relief appearance, this season against Milwaukee Gomber got two outs and gave up one hit. This will be his first-ever start versus the Brewers.

Veteran southpaw Gonzalez (9-11, 4.28) is 11/30 on quality starts this year, 1/3 since joining Milwaukee in that trade with Washington a month ago. Last Wednesday he held Cincinnati scoreless on two hits through six innings, and over his previous three starts, he’s allowed three earned runs and 13 hits through 16 1/3 innings. The Nationals went 11-16 with Gonzo, but the Brewers are 3-0. Also, unders are 19-10 when Gonzo starts this year.

In one start this season with Washington against the Cardinals Gonzalez gave up five runs in four innings of a 6-4 Nats loss.

Taking it all into account we’re giving Gonzo and the Brewers a short edge in this pitching match-up.

Tuesday’s Batting Splits

Milwaukee owns a .248/.319/.407 team batting average/OBP/slugging percentage split against left-handed pitching this season.

St. Louis owns a .251/.328/.426 split against lefties this year.

We’ll gotta give the Cardinals a short edge with the sticks for Tuesday.

The Bullpens

The Brewers bullpen owns a 3.55 ERA and a 1.26 WHIP.

The St. Louis pen owns a 4.26 ERA and a 1.45 WHIP.

We’ll give Milwaukee the check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens.

Totals Report

  • Unders are 40-36 in games played at Busch Stadium this year, which are averaging 8.6 total runs per.
  • Unders are 9-8 in Brewers-Cardinals games this season.

Free MLB Picks

We’re giving Milwaukee a one-star edge with our main handicapping factors. The Brewers are also riding a hot bat with MVP candidate Christian Yelich, and after a rough stretch a while back their bullpen is coming around. Plus they’re getting the underdog price. We’re betting the Brew Crew at Sportsbook that offers BitCoin deposits and payouts with our free MLB pick for Tuesday.