Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins Pick 7/10/18
Date/Time: July 10th, 2018 at 7:10 PM EDT
Money Line: Best Odds MIL -145 5Dimes | Best Odds MIA +135 Intertops
By Darin Zank
The first-place Brewers dropped the opener of a three-game series to the last-place Marlins in Miami Monday night. Do we bet Milwaukee on the zig-zag Tuesday night (7:10 ET)?
The MLB Betting Line
Tuesday’s MLB betting odds opened Milwaukee and Jhoulys Chacin at around -140 over Miami and Pablo Lopez, with an over/under of 8 runs. The early betting action then dropped that line about a nickel, to the -135 range.
The Brewers could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the run line.
The Marlins grabbed the opener of this series Monday night 4-3 in 10 innings, winning as +130 dogs on the MLB betting line. Miami trailed 2-1 heading into the bottom of the seventh inning but got back-to-back home runs from Starlin Castro and Brian Anderson off Milwaukee All-Star reliever Josh Hader to take a 3-2 lead. The Brewers tied the game with a run in the top of the eighth and had two on with one out in the tenth but couldn’t score. The Marlins then won it on a bases-loaded base hit by Bryan Holaday in the bottom of the tenth.
Monday’s game also played under a total of eight runs.
The loss was Milwaukee’s second over its last eight games. At 54-37 the Brewers lead the NL Central by a game and a half over the second-place Cubs.
With the win, Miami is 6-5 over its last 11 games. But bigger-picture, at 38-55 the Marlins are just trying to play toward a brighter future.
The Brewers lead this season series four games one, outscoring the Marlins 33-14.
On the personnel front, Milwaukee was playing without two of its key cogs in Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, but both are back in action now.
Rookie righty Lopez (1-0, 5.73), a Major Leaguer now for 11 days, is 1-for-2 on quality starts so far. In his ML debut back on June 30, he held the Mets to two runs through six innings in a 5-2 Miami victory. But last Thursday Lopez gave up five runs in five innings of a 14-12 loss to Washington. He’s walked three while striking out eight, but he’s also given up three home runs.
Lopez earned the call-up by posting a tight 1.44 ERA through 62 1/3 innings down in the Minors this year.
This (obviously) will be Lopez’ first-ever start against Milwaukee, which could give him an edge, at least for the first couple of times through the lineup.
Chacin (7-3, 3.63), by our strict standards, is just 6/19 on quality starts this season, but some of that has to do with a short leash. Last Thursday he held Atlanta to two runs and three hits through seven innings of a 7-2 Brewers victory, and just before that he held Cincinnati to one run through five innings, although Milwaukee lost that game 12-3. On the season the Brewers are 13-6 with Chacin, with the unders going 11-8.
In his one start, this year against Miami Chacin tossed six innings of four-hit, shutout ball in an 8-0 Milwaukee win.
We like Chacin for our handicapping check-mark in this pitching match-up.
Tuesday’s Batting Splits
The Brewers rank 10th in the Majors this year against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, 15th with a .317 team OBP and 10th with a .421 team slugging percentage.
The Marlins rank 9th against RHP with a .250 BA, 20th with a .314 OBP and 25th with a .380 slugging percentage.
We’re giving Milwaukee the edge with the sticks for Tuesday.
The Brewers bullpen ranks 6th in the ML with a 3.18 ERA and 9th with a 1.23 WHIP, while going 25/40 on save opportunities.
The Miami pen ranks 27th in ERA at 4.94 and 26th in WHIP at 1.46 while going 19/29 on save conversions.
Despite what happened Monday night we’ll give Milwaukee the check-mark in the bullpen comparison.
Unders are 24-19 in games played at Marlins Park this year, which are averaging just 7.7 total runs per, fourth-fewest among all ML ballparks.
Unders are 3-2 in this season series, even though Brewers-Marlins games are averaging over 9 runs per. But one game, a 12-3 Milwaukee victory, skews that average a bit.
Free MLB Picks
The Brewers survived a stretch a while back in which both Cain and Yelich were out. Now they’re both back, and they’re really sparking this team this year – along with a few others (namely, Aguilar). Plus, we like what Chacin’s been doing lately, and Milwaukee posses the better bullpen. We’re betting the Brewers Tuesday, and we’ll chase the better price against the run line.