Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Pick

by | Apr 26, 2019 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (13-13) vs. New York Mets (13-11), 4/26/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
Listed Pitchers: Jake deGrom (2-2, 3.69 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) vs. Chase Anderson (2-0, 3.00, 1.13)

TV: FS Wisconsin, SNY
Moneyline: Mets -190/Brewers +170
Over/Under: 7.5

The Milwaukee Brewers lug a four-game losing streak into New York for the opener of a three-game series with the Mets Friday night. Can the Brew Crew get off the schnide? And who do we like for our free MLB pick here?

MLB Betting Odds

Friday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and deGrom at around –175 over Milwaukee and Anderson, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then bumped that line up to -190.

The Mets could also be found getting around +115 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Brewers vs. Mets Set-Up

Milwaukee just got swept three games by the Cardinals in St. Louis this week, losing Wednesday’s series finale 5-2. The Brewers then had Thursday off.

Just before that Milwaukee lost three of four at home to the Dodgers. So the Brew Crew is just 1-7 over its last eight games.

At 13-13 overall the Brewers trail the first-place Cardinals by three games in the NL Central.

New York, meanwhile, just took two of three games at home from Philadelphia, missing out on the sweep by losing the series finale Wednesday 6-0, which gave us the win! The Mets then also had Thursday off.

Just before the series victory over the Phillies New York had lost two series in a row. So the Mets are only 4-7 over their last 11 games.

At 13-11 overall New York leads the NL East by a half-game over second-place Philadelphia.

This is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year the Brewers took the season series from the Mets four games to three.

Friday’s Starting Arms

deGrom is 2/4 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two, and missed his turn in the rotation last week due to a sore elbow. Twelve days ago he gave up three runs and five hits, including a couple of homers, in five innings of a 7-3 New York loss to Atlanta. And just before that Minnesota tagged him for six runs and eight hits, including three dingers, through four frames of a 14-8 Mets defeat.

Together, deGrom needed 211 pitches to get his last 27 outs.

Supposedly deGrom is good to go for Friday, but we’re leery.

New York is 2-2 with deGrom this season.

This will be deGrom’s first start against Milwaukee since 2017, when in two starts he gave up 11 runs in 10 innings of a pair of Mets losses.

Anderson is 0/1 on quality starts this season, to go along with five appearances in relief, but he’s actually been good so far. Last Saturday, in his first start of the season, he held the Dodgers scoreless on one hit through five innings of a 5-0 Milwaukee win. And prior to that, over those five relief outings, he allowed five runs and 10 hits through 10 innings. He also owns an 18/6 strikeouts/walks ratio, which is pretty good.

In two starts last year against the Mets Anderson allowed six runs and nine hits through 10 innings. Milwaukee won both those games.

Friday’s Batting Splits

  • The Brewers are batting .237/.317/.454 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also produced just 27 total runs over its last eight games.
  • New York is batting .249/.332/.405 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

  • The struggling Milwaukee bullpen owns a 4.56 ERA this season, along with a 1.36 WHIP and a 101/51 K/BB ratio.
  • The Mets bullpen is even worse, with a 5.40 ERA, a 1.58 WHIP and a 92/43 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The unders are 15-10 in Brewers games this season.
  • The overs are 15-6 in Mets games this season.
  • The overs are 4-3 in games played at Citi Field this season.
  • The unders finished 4-3 in Brewers-Mets games last season.

Free MLB Pick

Milwaukee is not going very good at the moment. Let us know if you feel different. It’s not easy taking a team on the downswing. But we’re very leery of deGrom right now, and the price on this game is way inflated. We’re looking for value here in betting the Brewers.

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