Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres Pick 4/19/21

by | Apr 19, 2021 | mlb

Milwaukee Brewers (8-7) vs. San Diego Padres (10-7)

When: 10 p.m., Friday, April 19

Where: Petco Park, San Diego

Moneyline: MIL +120/SD -140 (Get Dimeline Baseball Betting >>> Pay less for favorites! Get paid MORE when you bet underdogs! It’s the ONLY way to bet!)

Runline: Brewers +1.5/Padres -1.5

Total: 7

Starting Pitchers: Brandon Woodruff (0-0, 2.12 ERA, 0.76 WHIP) vs. Joe Musgrove (2-1, 0.47 ERA, 0.47 WHIP)

Hometown Hero

Joe Musgrove gets to return to Petco Park as a conquering hero, as this will be his first home game since pitching the first no-hitter in Padres’ history. So far, even with two of his three starts coming on the road, Musgrove has found wearing his hometown team’s jersey to his liking, as he’s given up just seven hits in 19 innings and one earned run that surrendered on a home run in Pittsburgh.

What makes Musgrove so difficult to hit is his excellent control, as he’s struck out 24 hitters and issued only two free passes. He does have a weakness in that he can get his pitch count up early, as he’s a strikeout pitcher who has averaged eight K’s a game through his first three starts. When you throw that many pitches to several batters, you can get your pitch count up quick, which was especially true after the no-hitter caused him to last just four innings in his next start. Against the Pirates, Musgrove made it through 81 pitches before leaving in the fifth inning and ended up the loser when his team couldn’t rally, and the bullpen gave up four more runs to Pittsburgh.

Earning Every Inch

Any offense that comes in this game will almost certainly be earned the hard way given these two pitchers. We’ve touched on Musgrove’s control, but Brandon Woodruff is almost as accurate, walking just three hitters in three starts. In two starts against the Cubs, Woodruff was excellent from beginning to end, allowing just one earned run in 13 innings of work.

But the pitching and defense don’t stop there for either of these teams. No matter who is on the mound, Milwaukee and San Diego pitching have gotten the job done. The Padres’ team ERA is 2.50, good for the best in baseball, while the Brewers are pretty solid themselves at 3.04 (fifth-best in MLB). Both pitching staffs also miss a lot of bats, as Milwaukee has fanned 148 hitters, and nobody has come close to matching San Diego’s 183. That’s why the total is so low for this game: neither side has played in many high-scoring contests this season.

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Hitting the Highway

Milwaukee has led a relatively charmed life with its travel schedule to this point in the season, as the Brewers have played all of their games in either Wisconsin, St. Louis, or Chicago, none of which is more than a 400-mile trek each way. As such, Milwaukee hasn’t faced much of an obstacle in terms of life away from its home field. Which begs the question as to how well the Brewers will respond to both changing time zones and putting miles on their bodies for the first time in this young season.

Last year, which was admittedly a strange year all around, Milwaukee was a consistently mediocre team last season, getting the win 14 times in the 60-game sprint to the playoffs last season. However, there’s not a lot to read into with that stat, as nobody made any long travel with COVID restricting teams to their own geo-graphic part of the country. Having to travel after playing Sunday could lead to a tough battle from start to finish.

Betting Trends

  • The Brewers are 4-0 in their past four games following a loss.
  • The Brewers have lost five straight against NL West opponents.
  • The Padres are 8-1 in their past nine games on Mondays.
  • The Padres are 2-5 in their past seven home games.
  • The under is 12-2 in Milwaukee’s last 14 road games.
  • The under is 8-1 in the Padres’ past nine home games.
  • The under is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Weather Report

It’s going to be a great night for baseball, with temperatures at 67 degrees and the wind having little factor, blowing five miles per east toward the first-base line.

Dan’s Pick to Get the Money!

San Diego seems to be in the process of figuring things out, and the Brewers had to cross two time zones af-ter playing on Sunday. The Padres are doing a great job at preventing runs, and while the Brewers are keep-ing runs off the board as well, they’re also facing a team in San Diego that is well known for its offensive prowess. When the Padres start hitting, they can put up big numbers in a hurry.

That’s why I don’t really want the under here, as it’s just too low for my tastes, even with these pitchers. But I think this can be a great opportunity to cash with the Padres at home with Milwaukee having to travel. Give me San Diego to get the win. Did you know… that you can bet on MLB games (and all sports for that matter) while the games are live-in-progress? Even if you were aware, most live betting platforms are crap! Check out the well-formatted easy to use platform at Bovada Sportsbook! You’ll LOVE it! Credit cards work there for deposits and they’ll give you a 50% real cash bonus too! Click here to register for an account now!