MLB Picks: Orioles vs. White Sox 5/27/21

by | May 27, 2021 | mlb

Baltimore Orioles (17-32) vs. Chicago White Sox (28-20)

When: 8:10 p.m., Thursday, May 27

Where: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago

Moneyline: BAL +196/CHW -216 (Dimeline Betting: Risk less each bet >>> Get paid MORE on underdogs!)

Runline: Orioles +1.5/White Sox -1.5

Total: 9

Starting Pitchers: Bruce Zimmermann (2-3, 5.59 ERA, 1.55 WHIP) vs. Dylan Cease (2-1, 3.18 ERA, 1.30 WHIP)

Downward Spiral

Nobody expected Baltimore to be competitive this season, but the rate at which the Orioles are coming apart at the seams is truly alarming. Baltimore has now dropped nine in a row and has barely been competitive in getting swept by the Twins, Nationals, and Rays. In seven of their past nine games, the Orioles have not only lost the game but they’ve also been dominated on the runline.

The main problem for the Orioles is that this season has seemed to be like the world’s worst game of Whack-a-Mole. Whenever an existing problem gets partially solved, something new seems to pop up to replace the issue, leaving the Orioles with the worst record in the majors. Case in point: in their sweep at the hands of Washington, Bruce Zimmerman actually got plenty of support from the Orioles’ lineup, as Baltimore managed to score five runs before Washington took the field. But within three innings, the Orioles had given all of the lead back, and they ended up with yet another ugly loss after watching the game go from 5-0 in their favor to losing 12-9.

With Baltimore already out of the race for this season, it begs the question as to how the Orioles will approach the rest of the season. On the one hand, Baltimore is now essentially free to throw caution to the wind and dedicate the rest of the year to call-ups. On the other, Baltimore was already effectively doing that anyway, which could mean that things only get worse from here.

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True to Form

Betting the total is dangerous with the White Sox because the books seem to have Chicago figured out. One of the best ways for sportsbooks to make money is to set lines at enticing prices for teams that have a lot of buzz around them, and the White Sox certainly qualify in 2021. But what casual bettors often forget is that the Sox receive accolades for their pitching and defense just as much as they do their hitting.

As a team, the Pale Hose rank fifth in runs per game and sixth in team ERA, putting them up there with the Dodgers as the only teams to rank in the top 20 percent of baseball in both categories. Because of that, the White Sox have gone to the under in 27 of 48 games despite their offensive success. In recent games, the under has won out in a big way: six of the White Sox’s past seven games have come in under the total.

Bat On the Shoulder

If the Orioles are smart, they’ll take their bats out of the equation and wait for the right pitch to come to them. That’s proven to be an effective way to bat against Dylan Cease because when he has to come in and come after a hitter, the results haven’t quite been stellar.

Cease averages 2.67 walks per game, and history suggest that he’s more likely to relax and record strikeouts when the opposing team allows the White Sox to bury them early. His three highest-strikeout games came during a three-game stretch in which the Sox gave him plenty of support and allowed themselves to win those three games by a combined score of 29-3. But when a team makes Cease work, their chances against him sharply increase. The White Sox are 5-4 when he’s on the mound, and all four defeats saw him surrender at least three free passes.

Betting Trends

  • The Orioles are 15-36 in their past 51 against the AL Central.
  • The Orioles are 32-76 in their past 108 games against a team with a winning record.
  • The White Sox are 14-3 in their past 17 games following a loss.
  • The White Sox are 9-2 in their past 11 home games against a left-handed starter.
  • The over is 11-2 in the Orioles’ past 13 games.
  • The under is 6-1 in the White Sox’s past seven games.
  • The over is 7-3-1 in the past 11 meetings.

Weather Report

Rain and wind could be a problem in this one, with forecasts calling for winds heading 13 mph toward the first-base dugouts and temperatures at 60 degrees.

Dan’s Pick

The White Sox tend to be pretty good at bouncing back after a bad showing, which doesn’t bode well for an Orioles squad that’s lost nine in a row. Chicago didn’t get the job done against St. Louis on Wednesday, and the White Sox are likely to take out some frustrations on Baltimore in this situation. The Orioles have been a mess on the mound as of late, and any time that you’re getting swept by the Twins in 2021, you’ve got real problems.

I can’t see the Sox having too many issues with this game. The Orioles appear to already be in the process of folding their tents and moving on to next season, which should make them very manageable for Chicago here. Give me the Sox on the runline. Bet this week’s picks FREE by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $300 at MyBookie Sportsbook! (Must use bonus/promo code PREDICT100).