Nationals vs. Braves Runline Bet 9/5/20

by | Sep 5, 2020 | mlb

Washington Nationals (13-24) vs. Atlanta Braves (23-15)

When: 7:10 p.m., Saturday, September 5

Where: Truist Park, Atlanta

Starting Pitchers: Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.71 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) vs. Max Fried (6-0, 1.60 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Moneyline: WSH +210/ATL -240 (BetOnline - SWEET online betting platform + 35% crypto reloads!)

Runline: Nationals +1.5/Braves -1.5

Total: 9

Opportunity Knocks

If you had said at the start of this crazy season that Atlanta wouldn’t face a team with a winning record over its final 22 games, you could have retired for life. But incredibly, that’s where we are, as the Braves’ last three weeks of the season are all against the Marlins, Mets, Nationals, Red Sox, and Orioles, none of whom are above .500. At this point, only two things could derail Atlanta’s run to repeating as NL East champion: complacency and the Phillies.

Complacency is going to be a big worry with Atlanta down the stretch, as the Braves already know that it would take a major collapse for them to miss the playoffs. Ironically, their biggest competition might also be what keeps them worth betting on down the stretch. The Phillies’ final three weeks are almost as easy, other than a last series against the Rays. ATL will get into the playoffs either way because the top two in each division get an automatic bid. Still, if they want to win the division and home-field advantage, Atlanta cannot take its foot off the gas because Philadelphia will catch up. To their credit, the Braves seemed to recognize the danger after dropping two of three at Citizens Bank Park, as they’ve won five of their past six games to solidify their lead over the Phillies.

All That’s Left

Technically, the Nationals still have a shot at making the playoffs, as they’re only 4.5 games behind the Cardinals for the final NL playoff spot. But let’s be honest: this team appears to be done. The Nats had lost seven straight before getting a win in the back end of Friday’s doubleheader, and truthfully, if that had been a nine-inning game, the Nationals probably would have lost that one too, given that Atlanta had the momentum at the end.

About the only thing the Nationals have left to play for is pride and slightly improving their numbers, and that’s just not going to be much of a motivator when this team was playing for a World Series 10 months ago. Whether it was a World Series hangover or just being overwhelmed by the mental challenges that came with COVID, the Nationals have seemed completely overwhelmed this year and are allowing baserunners left and right. Only Boston — which has also bumbled its way to a disastrous season — has a higher WHIP than Washington, and with even Max Scherzer and Patrick Corbin struggling this year, the Nationals have become a reliable bet for the opponent to hit over its team total. Seven of Washington’s past eight games have seen that Nats’ opponent score at least five runs and all of those were good enough to hit their team total.

Single or Home Run? Both.

One of the things that makes the Braves such a dangerous team is that they can beat you with either power or by manufacturing runs. The Braves rank seventh in baseball with 55 home runs on the season, but Atlanta also excels at getting hits, boasting an average of .263. Atlanta is dangerous, and the Braves are proving it by putting up runs in bunches over their past six games. Since last Saturday, the Braves haven’t been held below six runs.

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If the Braves do have a weakness at the plate, it’s that they’re not patient hitters. The Braves don’t work out walks and strike out a lot, averaging almost ten whiffs per game. Unfortunately for Washington, Erick Fedde is far from a strikeout pitcher, averaging about one strikeout every three innings this season.

Betting Trends

  • The Nationals are 1-5 in their past six as a road underdog.
  • The Nationals are 5-21 in their past 26 against a right-handed starter.
  • The Braves are 5-1 in their past six.
  • The Nationals have lost seven straight games when following a win.
  • The Braves are 20-8 in their past 28 Saturday games.
  • The over is 9-2-2 in the Nationals’ past 13 as an underdog.
  • The over is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings in Atlanta.
  • The Braves have won nine of the past 13 against Washington.

Weather Report

Making the over even more likely is the fact that the wind will blow six miles per hour to the north, sending balls out toward the right-center fence. Temperatures will hover around 84 degrees on a partly cloudy day.

Dan’s Pick

Atlanta’s got its ace on the mound, and the Nationals don’t appear to be capable or interested in finishing out the final three weeks of this abbreviated season. Other than Trea Turner and Juan Soto, Washington appears to have packed it in for the season, and I can’t see them being the team that hands Fried his first loss of the year.

Atlanta has been excellent at home and is mashing the ball right now. I’d back the Braves on the run line in this one. Note: We also have NCAA football picks today!