New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves Betting Pick
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Date: Thursday, June 8th, 7:20 ET
Location: Truist Park
TV: MLBN
Money Line: NYM +147/Atl -176
Total Line: 8.5
Betting Preview
Here’s our betting preview for the upcoming MLB clash between the Atlanta Braves and the Mets on Thursday, June 8th at Truist Park. We provide you with a comprehensive analysis, odds, and predictions to help with your handicapping decision or tail our expert based on the projected lineups and listed starting pitchers.
Betting Odds
| ML | RL | Total | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | +147 | +1.5 | O 8.5 (-113) |
| ATL | -176 | -1.5 | U 8.5 (-108) |
Mets vs. Braves Projected Lineup
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 1 | CF |
| Francisco Lindor | 2 | SS |
| Jeff McNeil | 3 | 2B |
| Pete Alonso | 4 | 1B |
| Brett Baty | 5 | 3B |
| Starling Marte | 6 | CF |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 7 | DH |
| Mark Canha | 8 | LF |
| Francisco Alvarez | 9 | C |
| Justin Verlander | – | SP |
| Batting Order | Position | |
|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 1 | RF |
| Matt Olson | 2 | 1B |
| Austin Riley | 3 | 3B |
| Sean Murphy | 4 | C |
| Eddie Rosario | 5 | LF |
| Ozzie Albies | 6 | 2B |
| Marcell Ozuna | 7 | DH |
| Orlando Arcia | 8 | 2B |
| Michael Harris II | 9 | CF |
| Spencer Strider | – | SP |
Straight Up/Over-Under/ Runline Record
New York Mets: 30-32 SU / OU 28-32 / Runline 23-39
Heading into their game vs. the Braves, the Mets have a record of 30-32 and have dropped five straight games. In the NL East, they are in 3rd place and have an overall series record of 8-9-3. At home, they have gone 15-12 and 15-20 on the road.
- The Mets have three straight losses vs. the runline and have a season-long run margin of -0.3.
- The Mets have been favored in 72.6% of their games and have runline records of 11-16 and 12-23 at home and on the road, respectively
- So far, the Mets have an over/under record of just 28-32.
The Braves take on the Mets in the middle of a four game winning streak and are leading the NL East on an overall record of 37-24. So far, they are 20-10 on the road and 17-14 at home. Atlanta’s overall series record stands at 12-5-2.
- The Braves have covered the runline in four straight games and have a season-long run margin of 1.1.
- The Braves have been favored in 83.6% of their games and have runline records of 10-21 and 18-12 at home and on the road, respectively
- The over has hit in 58% of the Braves’ 61 games at 33-24.
Pitching Matchup
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6 | 6 | 36 | 2-3 | 4.25 | 1.14 | 6 |
The Mets will turn to starter Justin Verlander who has an overall record of 2-3. After six appearances, his ERA is 4.25 and he has a K/9 figure of 0.8. Also, he has compiled a FIP of 4.54 and an OBP of .279.
Verlander will look to build on his previous start, as he tossed six innings and allowed one earned run on five hits. However, the Mets fell by a score of 3-0 to the Blue Jays.
| Pitcher | Appearances | Started | IP | Record | ERA | WHIP | HR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Strider | 12 | 12 | 69 | 6-2 | 2.97 | 1.00 | 7 |
Atlanta is looking to Spencer Strider to deliver yet another impressive performance, given he has earned a win in two consecutive games. So far he has an ERA of 2.97 and record of 6-2. Throughout the season, he has accumulated 113 strikeouts and has a batting average allowed of .175. In terms of slugging percentage, teams have SLG of .311 vs. Strider.
The Braves picked up a win the last time Spencer Strider took the mound, taking down the Diamondbacks by a score of 5-2. In six innings of work, he allowed three hits and two earned runs while adding a W to his record.
Mets vs. Braves Offense Outlook
The Mets have played 63 games and are currently ranked 13th in the league, averaging 4.3 runs per game. New York ranks 9th in home runs, (73) and have a collective batting average of .238, including .233 on the road and .223 at home.
New York Mets Top Bats
| BA | OBP | SLG | RBI | HR | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Alonso | .231 | .326 | .546 | 49 | 22 | 2 |
| Francisco Lindor | .216 | .290 | .419 | 42 | 11 | 4 |
| Brandon Nimmo | .284 | .374 | .414 | 21 | 4 | 3 |
New York Mets Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Pham | .250 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1.000 |
| Pete Alonso | .150 | 3 | 2 | 2 | .450 |
| Starling Marte | .267 | 5 | 2 | 1 | .467 |
| Francisco Lindor | .183 | 3 | 2 | 1 | .450 |
| Jeff McNeil | .167 | 3 | 2 | 0 | .217 |
For the season, the Braves are one of the top home runs hitting teams in the league with a total of 100 home runs (3rd). So far, Atlanta is averaging 5.1 runs per game with a collective batting average of .261. When playing at home, the Braves have a slugging percentage of .450 compared to .442 at home.
Atlanta Braves Top Bats
| BA | OBP | SLG | RBI | HR | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | .331 | .404 | .555 | 33 | 12 | 28 |
| Matt Olson | .232 | .360 | .509 | 43 | 17 | 1 |
| Sean Murphy | .287 | .389 | .552 | 42 | 12 | 0 |
Atlanta Braves Top Hitters: Last Five Games
| Player | BA | H | R | HR | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | .340 | 7 | 5 | 3 | .910 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | .380 | 9 | 4 | 1 | .540 |
| Ozzie Albies | .277 | 6 | 3 | 2 | .597 |
| Sean Murphy | .270 | 6 | 2 | 1 | .510 |
| Austin Riley | .383 | 7 | 5 | 0 | .483 |
Free MLB Pick
The starting pitcher for the New York Mets, Justin Verlander, has shown glimpses of his old self this season. However, he has struggled in games against the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays, making it difficult to predict which version of Verlander will show up. He will be up against one of the stronger hitting lineups in Major League Baseball. While Verlander’s overall career numbers against this lineup are impressive, it’s important to note that the majority of at-bats come from two players, Eddie Rosario (.150 batting average) and Matt Olson (.238 batting average), who account for 41 out of the 64 at-bats.
On the other side, the Atlanta Braves have Spencer Strider as their starting pitcher. Strider doesn’t have strong back numbers against the Mets, with the current roster hitting .275 against him, accompanied by a .367 on-base percentage, over 69 at-bats. He has faced the Mets four times in his career, all since the beginning of last season, and has allowed ten earned runs over 17 1/3 innings pitched. However, it’s worth noting that in his two career home starts against the Mets; he has surrendered only two earned runs over 9 2/3 innings.
The Mets have managed to score four or more runs in each of their last three games. However, despite their run production, their hitting hasn’t been strong, as they have combined for only 17 hits across the three games. Meanwhile, the Braves possess a potent offense. Even if Verlander performs well, the Mets’ below-average bullpen can be exploited.
Considering the high money line, I prefer to take the run line and hope that the Braves can extend their lead. Therefore, it would be a prudent choice to bet on the Atlanta Braves with a -1.5 run handicap, listed at +115 odds.
