New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets

by | May 2, 2021 | mlb

New York Mets (10-11) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (13-14)

When: 7 p.m., Sunday, May 2

Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Moneyline: NYM -110/PHI -110 (BetNow - Deposit $100 to $1000 and receive a 100% real cash bonus! The absolute best offer from a legit online sportsbook!)

Runline: Mets +1.5/Phillies -1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: David Peterson (1-3, 5.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) vs. Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.58 ERA, 1.07 WHIP)

The Pennsylvania Pendulum

The Phillies would love to get some consistency going, but right now, the only consistent thing with the Phil-lies is inconsistency. Philadelphia has alternated wins and losses in each of its last 11 games and hasn’t had a winning or losing streak of longer than two games since the Phillies got swept by the Mets in Queens in mid-April.

What makes things truly maddening for bettors is that there’s not a ton of consistency between one result and the next. The under might have cashed in three out of four in St. Louis, but the Phils responded by play-ing over against some absurdly low totals in their three most recent contests. The numbers reflect the Phillies’ inconsistency quite well, as the Phillies sit 15-12 to them over on the campaign.

Finishing the Task

The days of the Mets’ bullpen being a liability have apparently been placed in the rear view mirror because New York is suddenly getting outstanding work from its bullpen. Mets pitchers out of the pen have thrown 19 consecutive shutout innings (although they did get a slight assist from a blown call in Saturday’s game against the Phillies), turning what had been a major liability into a strength.

In practice, that’s meant yet another reason for Mets games to continue to be low–scoring, as the Mets had previously been a team with solid starting pitching but a questionable bullpen and a weak offense. The start-ers have continued to do their job, and the hitters have continued to flounder, making the Mets a team that wins with pitching and defense and does it pretty well. For the year, New York ranks second in the majors in ERA.

The Flowers

The one thing in this series that has shoved it into over territory is Citizens Bank Park, known as one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the majors. Pitchers detested this park so much over the years that they’ve been known to complain about how close the flower beds in left and center field are to the plate (they’re 329 feet down the line and 369 in the power alley), and it’s a rare hurler who comes out of a series in Philadelphia with his ERA unscathed.

Not even the offensively-challenged Mets and Phillies have been immune to the effects of Citizens Bank Park when they’ve faced each other, as the over has cashed in six of the teams’ past seven meetings in Phila-delphia. The effects were on full display on Saturday when the teams played a nine-run contest capped off by a home run by Michael Conforto, a solo blast that might have been no more than a double had the game been played at the Mets’ Citi Field.

Betting Trends

  • The Mets are 3-7 in their past ten games.
  • The Mets are 6-2 in their past eight against the NL East.
  • The Phillies are 5-1 in their past six home games against a left-handed starter.
  • The Phillies are 6-2 in their past eight series-ending contests.
  • The under is 6-1-1 in the Mets’ past eight games.
  • The under is 4-1 in the Phillies’ past five games.
  • The Phillies are 14-6 in the teams’ past 20 meetings in Philadelphia.
  • The over is 7-3 in the teams’ past ten meetings.

Weather Report

It’s going to be warm and windy, with the temperature at 79 degrees at the first pitch and winds blowing out at 13 miles per hour, sending the ball toward the right-center field fences.

Dan’s pick

David Peterson hasn’t looked great for the Mets lately, the pendulum is supposed to swing back toward the Phillies anyway, and the wind is blowing out to right-center, which should only help the Phillies put up some runs. This team has had some success against southpaws and showed that it could come back on Saturday against the Mets, which should give Philadelphia some confidence going into this game.

Even though the Mets have played some tough defense all season long, they haven’t exactly done great when Peterson has taken the hill. Plus, the southpaw has already pitched in Citizens Bank Park once this year (thanks to scheduling, this series marks the third time already the teams have faced off), and it didn’t go well. Peterson lasted just four innings in that game, and the Phillies tagged him for six runs.

I won’t go as far as predicting a repeat, but I will predict another defeat for the Mets with Peterson on the hill. Give me the Phillies to come out with this one. Question: If you went to the store to buy a product and there were two of the same exact product, one for $110 and another for $105, which would you buy? The cheaper one, of course! So why are you still betting at a sportsbook that doesn’t offer reduced/discounted odds? Dump your book TODAY and start enjoying betting on sports at a cheaper price for the exact same product you’re currently paying more for! —> BetAnySports Sportsbook!

MLB Betting Guide

New to betting on baseball? We've got you covered! Our comprehensive how to bet on baseball article explains all the different types of wagers offered at the sportsbooks including money lines, over/unders, run lines, parlays and more! Also get tips and strategies to increase your odds of beating the bookies!