New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Pick

by | Apr 15, 2019 | mlb

New York Mets (9-6) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (9-5), 4/15/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET
Where: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Listed Pitchers: Aaron Nola (1-0, 6.46, 1.43) vs. Noah Syndergaard (1-1, 4,74, 0.79)
TV: ESPN, SNY, NBCS Philadelphia
Moneyline: Phillies -115/Mets +105 
Over/Under: 7.5

NL East rivals kick off their 2019 season series when the Phillies and Mets meet for the opener of a three-game set Monday night in Philly. This game features a pretty good pitching match-up, and runs might be hard to come by. Which way are we going with our free MLB pick for Monday?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened Philly and Nola at around -120 over New York and Syndergaard, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a nickel, to around -115.

Mets vs. Phillies Set-Up

New York just split four games with the Braves in Atlanta over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale with Jake DeGrom 7-3. So the Mets have lost two straight games, after winning three in a row.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, just took two of three games from the Marlins in Miami over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 3-1 in 14 innings.

At 9-5 overall Philly leads the NL East by a half-game over 9-6 New York and Atlanta.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last season the Mets took 11 of 19 games from the Phillies.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Nola is 1/3 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last two. Last Tuesday he gave up five runs – four earned – on seven hits, including two homers, through 6 1/3 innings of a 10-6 Philly defeat against Washington. And just before that he gave up six runs and three homers through just three innings of a 9-8 loss to those same Nationals. So over his three starts this season Nola has allowed 11 ER and 22 base-runners (hits + walks) through 15 1/3 innings.

Philadelphia is 1-2 with Nola this season, with the overs going 3-0.

In six starts last year against New York Nola allowed just nine runs and 37 BR through 37 2/3 innings. The Phillies went 5-1 in those games, with the unders going 5-0-1.

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Syndergaard is 1/3 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he gave up four runs and five hits through seven innings against Minnesota but the Mets won that game anyway 9-6. Just before that Syndergaard held Washington to two runs and one hit through six innings, although New York lost that game 4-0. On the season Syndergaard has allowed 10 runs but only 15 BR through 19 innings.

The Mets are 2-1 with Syndergaard this season, with the overs going 2-1.

In four starts last year against Philadelphia Syndergaard allowed 13 runs and 40 BR through 20 1/3 innings. New York split those four games, with the unders going 3-1.

These two pitchers faced-off twice last season; the teams split the two meetings, which were both decided by scores of 4-2, and both games played under their totals.

Monday’s Batting Splits

  • New York is batting .253/.338/.418 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored six or more runs in seven of its last eight times out.
  • Philadelphia is batting .251/.354/.449 against RH pitching this season.

The Bullpens

  • The Mets bullpen owns a 6.50 ERA this season, a 1.81 WHIP and a 60/28 strikeouts/walks ratio.
  • The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.64 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and a 57/19 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 11-3-1 in Mets games this season.
  • The overs are 9-5 in Phillies games this season.
  • The overs are 5-4 in games played at Citizen Bank Park this season.
  • The unders finished 11-7-1 in Mets-Phillies games last season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re a little concerned about Nola right now, coming off two iffy performances. He’s very liable to bounce back at any moment, but we’re gonna play a little wait-and-see with him for the moment. Meanwhile the Mets have been scoring runs at a pretty good rate as of late, and it’s not often you can get Syndergaard at an underdog price. We’re going with New York with our free MLB pick for Monday.

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