New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles Pick

by | May 20, 2019 | mlb

New York Yankees (28-17) vs. Baltimore Orioles (15-31), 5/20/19
Time: 7:05 pm ET Monday, May 20
Where: Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD
Listed Pitchers: JA Happ (3-3, 4.44 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) vs. Andrew Cashner (4-2, 4.10, 1.32)

Moneyline: Yankees -185/Orioles +165
Over/Under: 9.5

First place in the AL East meets last place when the Yankees and Orioles open a four-game series Monday night in Baltimore. How are we playing this game with our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened New York and Happ at around -165 over Baltimore and Cashner, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then steamed that line to -185. 10¢ MLB Sportsbooks had pricing up to 7 cents better on either side as the line changed throughout the night.

The Yanks could also be found giving around -120 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Yankees vs. Orioles Set-Up

New York just took two of three games at home from Tampa Bay over the weekend, winning Sunday’s series rubber match 13-5. That game was tied at 5-5 when the Yankees put up a seven spot in the bottom of the sixth, on their way toward victory.

Before that series New York swept two games at home from this Orioles outfit; just before that the Yanks took two of three from the Rays in Tampa; just before that they took three of four at home from Seattle; and just before that they took two of three at home from AL Central-leading Minnesota. So New York is 5-0 over its last five series and 11-4 over its last 15 games.

At 28-17 overall the Yankees now lead the AL East by a half-game over the second-place Rays.

Baltimore, meanwhile, just dropped three of four games to the Indians in Cleveland over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series finale 10-0. The Orioles stuck out 15 times Sunday.

Just before that Baltimore got swept two games by the Yankees in New York; just before that the Orioles dropped two of three at home to the Angels; and just before that they dropped two of three at home to Boston. So Baltimore is 0-6-1 over its last seven series and 2-9 over its last 11 games.

At 15-31 overall the Orioles occupy last place in the AL East, 13.5 games back of first-place New York.

The Yanks lead the season series with Baltimore six games to two.

Monday’s Starting Arms

Cashner is 4/9 on quality starts this season and three for his last four. Last Wednesday he limited this New York team to two runs and four hits through six innings, although the Orioles lost that game 3-1. And over his last four starts he’s allowed eight earned runs and 19 hits through 23 innings.

Baltimore, a team that’s 16 games under .500 on the season, is 5-4 with Cashner, and while the Orioles are 0-3 over his last three starts that’s not his fault.

Over his last six starts against the Yankees, two this year and four last year, Cashner allowed 20 ER and 35 hits through 35 1/3 innings. Baltimore went 2-4 in those games.

Lefty Happ is 3/9 on quality starts this season, but 0 for his last three because he hasn’t pitched six innings. Last Wednesday he gave up three runs and five hits, including a couple of homers, in a 5-3 Yanks victory over these Orioles. And just before that he tossed five innings of one-hit, shutout ball against the Mariners.

On the season New York is 6-3 with Happ, 5-1 over his last six starts.

In three starts already this season against Baltimore Happ allowed nine ER and 15 hits, including five dingers, through just 13 2/3 innings. The Yankees went 2-1 in those games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .254/.334/.449 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup is still operating without several key sticks, including Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton.

Baltimore is batting .233/.285/.364 against left-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also been held to three runs or less seven times in its last 10 games.

The Bullpens

The Yankees bullpen owns a 4.04 ERA this season and a 1.27 WHIP while converting 13 of 19 save opportunities.

The Orioles bullpen owns a 5.96 ERA and a 1.54 WHIP, both of which rank near the bottom in the Majors, while converting 8/13 on save opportunities.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 23-21 in Yankees games this season.
  • Unders are 23-21 in Orioles games this season.
  • Overs are 12-8 in games played at Camden Yards this season.
  • Overs are a combined 11-7 with Cashner and Happ this season.
  • Overs are 5-3 in Yanks-Orioles games this season.

Free MLB Pick

New York is +48 on run differential this season, which ranks fifth-best in the Majors, while Baltimore is -95 on RD, which ranks dead last. So not only are we going with the Yankees here, we’ll give the run and a half against the run line.

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