NY Mets vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Pick

by | Jun 1, 2019 | mlb

New York Mets (28-29) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (28-30), 6/1/19
Time: 10:10 pm ET
Where: Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ
Listed Pitchers: Jake deGrom (3-5, 3.71 ERA, 1.17 WHIP) vs. Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.78, 0.88)
TV: SNY, FS Arizona

Moneyline: Diamondbacks -110/Mets +100 (YouWager)
Over/Under: 7.5

A pair of Cy Young Award winners go at it when Jake deGrom and the Mets take on Zack Greinke and the Diamondbacks Saturday night in Phoenix. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Saturday’s MLB betting odds opened Arizona at around -120 over New York, with an over/under of 7.5 runs. Early betting action then dipped that line about a dime, to around -110.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks Set-Up

New York grabbed the opener of this series Friday night 5-4, cashing in as a -110 favorite on the MLB betting line. The Mets led that game early 3-0, fell down 4-3 but scored twice with two outs in the top of the eighth inning and held on from there for the victory.

Also, Friday’s game pushed a total of nine runs.

Even with Friday’s win, New York is only 2-3 over its last five games. At 28-29 overall the Mets sit in third place in the NL East, five games behind first-place Philadelphia.

With Friday’s loss, the Diamondbacks now own a five-game losing streak, falling to 3-10 over their last 13 games. At 28-30 overall Arizona sits in fourth place in the NL West, now 11 games back of the division-leading Dodgers.

This series is the first meeting between these teams this season. Last year New York took the season series from Arizona five games to two.

Saturday’s Starting Arms

Greinke, by our strict accounting, is 10/12 on quality starts this season, working on a run of four in a row. Monday he held Colorado to one run and four hits through six innings of a game the D’Backs eventually lost 4-3. And over his last four starts, he’s allowed just four runs and 17 hits through 27 2/3 innings.

Arizona is 7-5 with Greinke this season, and while they’re just 1-4 over his last five starts, that’s not his fault.

This will be Greinke’s first start against the Mets since 2017 when he gave up four runs through 6 2/3 innings of a 5-4 D’Backs victory.

deGrom is 6/11 on quality starts this season and four for his last six. But he’s also allowed five runs or more three times already this season, after never doing that once in 32 starts last year. Monday he held the Dodgers to two runs on seven hits through five innings of a game New York eventually lost 9-5. And last Wednesday he held Washington to one run on two hits through six frames.

The Mets are only 4-7 with deGrom this season, but he probably deserves two wins more than that.

In his one start against Arizona last year, deGrom allowed just one run and six hits through seven innings, with 13 strikeouts against zero walks, in a 3-1 New York victory.

Saturday’s Batting Splits

New York is batting .244/.323/.407 against right-handed pitching this season. This lineup has also scored at least five runs eight times in its last 10 games.

Arizona is batting .244/.314/.421 against RH pitching this season. This lineup has also been held to four runs or less four times in its last five games.

The Bullpens

After throwing two scoreless innings Friday night to preserve the victory, the Mets bullpen now owns a 4.73 ERA for the season and a 1.47 WHIP.

After blowing last night’s game, the D’Backs pen now owns a 4.41 ERA and a 1.43 WHIP.

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Totals Report

  • Overs are 29-22 in Mets games this season.
  • Overs are 28-27 in Diamondbacks games this season.
  • Unders are 12-10 in games played at Chase Field this season.
  • Overs are 7-4 with deGrom this season.
  • Totals are split 6-6 with Greinke this season.
  • Unders finished 4-2-1 in Mets-D’Backs games this season.

Free MLB Pick

Greinke owns a short edge in the pitching match-up, while the rest of the baseball handicapping factors seems to about even out. But we have a tough time betting on teams that own five-game losing streaks because momentum means so much in this game. So we’ll take underdog New York for our free MLB pick for Saturday.

Take the NY Mets +100