NY Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies Moneyline Pick

by | Last updated May 5, 2022 | mlb

New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Date: Thursday, May 5th, 06:45 ET
Location: Citizens Bank Park
TV: MLBN (out-of-market only)
Money Line: Mets +117 / Phillies -140 (Bovada)
Total Line: 8


New York: Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.0)
Philadelphia: Aaron Nola (1-3, 3.9)

Mets Projected Lineup

LF Mark Canha
1B Dominic Smith
2B Eduardo Escobar
CF Starling Marte
C James McCann
2B Jeff McNeil
1B Pete Alonso
CF Brandon Nimmo
SS Francisco Lindor

Phillies Projected Lineup

3B Alec Bohm
SS Didi Gregorius
C J.T. Realmuto
LF Kyle Schwarber
CF Odubel Herrera
RF Bryce Harper
RF Nick Castellanos
2B Jean Segura
1B Rhys Hoskins


New York Mets: 18-9-0 SU / OU 12-12-3 / Run Line W/L 16-11-0
Philadelphia Phillies: 11-14-0 SU / OU 12-11-2 / Run Line W/L 11-14-0

The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on Thursday, May 5th at Citizens Bank Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 06:45 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-140), with an OU line set at 8.

Recent Form

The Mets come into this matchup having suffered a 7-run loss to the Atlanta (9-2). On their way to giving up 9 runs, the Mets staff allowed 9 hits. On offense, the Mets finished with 8 hits. New York suffered the loss, despite being favored at -132.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 24 of their games, winning at a rate of 71.0%. With the OU line set at 7.0 runs, the Mets and Atlanta combined to go over this total. After the game, New York’s over-under record moved by to .500 at 12-12-3.

The Mets are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 3-2 over their last 5 games. Even with this record, in these games, their scoring differential is just -2. New York’s offense heads into action averaging 4.4 runs per game in their last 5 contests. Similar to their season average of 4.44. So far, New York has won over half of their 8 series played, going 7-0-1.

The Phillies are coming off a tight loss to Texas, dropping the game 2-1. Even in the loss, the pitching staff allowed just 2 on hits 7 hits. The Phillies’ offense ended the game with just 1 runs on 6 hits. Philadelphia dropped the game despite being favored at -200.0. So far, the team has won 50.0% of their games in which they were favored. With this result, the Phillies and Texas combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Even still, Philadelphia games have still gone over the betting total over half of the time, at (12-11-2).

The Phillies come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 1-4 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -7. If Philadelphia is going to pick up their play, they need to improve their offensive performance. Over their last 5 contests, they are averaging just 3.0 runs per game, compared to a season average 4.44. Philadelphia has a below .500 series record of just 2-6-0.

Pitching Matchup

For the Mets, Taijuan Walker gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 0-0. Currently, Walker has yet to give up a run, while pitching an average of 3.5 innings per outing. So far, batters are hitting just 0.095 against him. Up to this point, Walker’s has a strikeout percentage of 22.0% and a per 9 average of 2.5. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.57 walks per contest.

For the Phillies, Aaron Nola gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 1-3. Leading up to the game, Nola is hoping to bring down an ERA of 3.9. So far, he is averaging 5.4 innings per outing. Opposing lineups have put together a combined batting average of 0.214 against Nola. In terms of power, the right-hander is giving up 2 homers per 9 innings pitched. A strength of Aaron Nola’s game, is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 32.0%. Throughout the season, his strong command has led to an average of just 1.63 walks per contest.

New York vs Philadelphia History

So far, the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets have met up 5 times, with New York leading the season series, 3-2. Through 5 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-3, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.67 runs. Dating back to last season, the Philadelphia picked up 10 wins compared to 9, taking the season series. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, New York and Philadelphia averaged 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Mets are 11-0 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Mets are 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 2 runs or less in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies Prediction

In this matchup of two NL East rivals, I recommend taking the Mets to pick up the win. Look for New York to jump on Aaron Nola, as the team is ranked 3rd in runs scored vs right-handed pitching.

Free Pick:

Mets ML

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