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NY Yankees at Cleveland Indians Pick 7/12/18

by | Jul 12, 2018 | mlb

Event: Yankees at Indians
Date/Time: July 12, 2018 at 7:10 PM EDT
Location: Progressive Field
Money Line: NYY -120 / CLE +110
Total line: 7
By Darin Zank

The Yankees and Indians offer up a super pitching match-up as they open a four-game series Thursday night at Progressive Field (7:10 ET). How are way playing this one with our daily free MLB picks?

The MLB Betting Line

Thursday’s MLB betting odds opened Cleveland and Corey Kluber at around -110 over New York and Luis Severino, with an over/under of 7 runs. But early betting action flipped the favorite, and now the Yankees are favored by -by as high as -120 at some betting sites which is why we say to have multiple outs to improve your betting line. Take a look at our Top Sportsbooks for 2018 to add a few more reputable betting sites.

The Yanks could also be found getting around +145 giving the run and a half on the run line.

Set-Up

New York just split four games in Baltimore this week, winning the series finale Wednesday 9-0. So the Yankees are 4-0-1 over their last five series and 10-6 over their last 16 games.

At 60-31 New York trails division-leading Boston by 3.5 games in the AL East, but also leads the American League wild-card race by three games over Seattle.

The Indians, meanwhile, just dropped two of three games at home to Cincinnati, avoiding the sweep by winning Wednesday night 19-4. So Cleveland is only 1-4 in its last five series and 7-8 over its last 15 games.

At 50-41 the Tribe now leads the AL Central by 8.5 games over second-place Minnesota.

The Yanks lead this season series three games to none, outscoring the Indians 19-12.

Thursday’s Starting Arms

Kluber (12-4, 2.49), even by our strict standards, is 16/19 on quality starts this season. Three starts ago the Cardinals knocked him for six runs in less than two innings, but since then he’s allowed three runs through 13 innings. On the season Cleveland is 12-7 with Kluber, with the overs going 12-6, thanks mainly to some decent run support.

In four starts last year against New York Kluber gave up 12 runs and 15 hits, including six home runs, over 23 1/3 innings. The Indians somehow went 3-1 in those four games, with the overs going 2-1-1.

Severino (14-2, 2.12) is 14/19 on quality starts this year, and two for his last three. Last Saturday he gave up three runs through five innings against Toronto, and over his previous three starts, he’s allowed just those three runs through 18 2/3 innings, with 20 strikeouts. For the season New York is an impressive 17-2 with Severino, with the unders going 11-7.

In three starts last year against Cleveland Severino allowed seven earned runs and 10 hits, including six homers, through 20 1/3 innings. The Yankees won two of those three games, and all three games played over their totals.

Based on recent performance against Thursday’s opponents we’re giving Severino a short edge in this pitching match-up.

Thursday’s Batting Splits

New York ranks 11th in the Majors this year against right-handed pitching with a .250 team batting average, 6th with a .325 team OBP and 2nd with a .454 team slugging percentage.

Cleveland ranks 9th against RHP with a .251 BA, 10th with a .322 OBP and 4th with a .443 slugging percentage.

The Yanks own the edge in the batting splits for Thursday, although not by a whole lot.

The Bullpens

The New York bullpen ranks No. 1 in the ML with a 2.72 ERA and 2nd with a 1.08 WHIP, while going 27/35 on save opportunities.

The Indians pen ranks dead last - 30th - in ERA at 5.39 and 16th in WHIP at 1.34 while going 21/32 on save conversions.

Even with closer Aroldis Chapman questionable for this series with a sore knee we’re giving the Yanks our handicapping check-mark in the comparison of the bullpens, too.

Totals Report

The overs are a lopsided 30-14 in games played at Progressive Field this year, which are averaging a healthy 10.8 total runs per, second-most among all ML ballparks.

Cleveland is 7-2-1 on the overs its last 10 games.

The overs are 2-1 in Yankees-Indians games this season, which have averaged 10.3 runs per.

Free MLB Picks

New York is 37-25 this year against RH starters, Cleveland 34-32. Also, the Yankees own our handicapping edges in the pitching match-up, the batting splits, and the bullpens. And how many times do you see a team explode for double-digit runs, like the Tribe did Wednesday night, only to be held to 1-2 their next time out? We’re betting New York in this spot. Get the best line on this game at Intertops with their dime pricing on baseball games.

Baseball Sportsbooks

10¢ to: 20¢ to:
-200 -279
Heritage
-200 -240
5Dimes
-195 -266