Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick

by | Apr 23, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (12-10 SU, 10-12 RL) at New York Mets (12-10 SU, 13-9 RL)
Date: Tuesday, April 23, 2019
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field, New York
Listed Pitchers: Philadelphia: Zach Eflin (2-2, 3.68 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) vs. New York: Zack Wheeler (1-2, 6.35 ERA, 1.54 WHIP)
TV: NBC Sports, SNY

Moneyline: Phillies +124/Mets -134 (BetOnline)
Over/Under: 8.5

The Phillies won round 1 between these teams in Philadelphia, taking two out of three from the Mets, but since then, they’ve dropped four out of five and pulled their record back toward .500. New York hasn’t exactly been getting the job done either, as its first trip to an NL non-division opponent ended with two losses in three games to the Cardinals. The Mets did take care of the Phillies on Monday and can pass their rivals with a victory here. Which team will get itself moving in the right direction here?

MLB Betting Odds

The over/under has stayed flat, but the moneyline has moved in the Mets’ favor, starting at -123 and reaching its current price of -135, slightly lower at dimeline sportsbooks. Monday marked the first time since April 14 that the Mets won as a favorite, as they’re just 5-3 when expected to win this season.

Phillies vs. Mets Set-Up

These two teams are in a logjam along with the Braves and Nationals, and the four squads are expected to be in a tight battle all season long for the NL East crown. Considering that all four are likely to get healthy off of 19 games with the Marlins, the matchups with each other take on a great importance. So far, it’s the Mets and Phillies who have done the best in the division, as the Mets are 10-7 against the East and the Phillies are 9-6. The teams have split four meetings this year, and after this series concludes, they won’t see each other again until June.

Tuesday’s Starting Arms

For whatever reason, Wheeler just can’t pitch against the Nationals. In two appearances against the club from the nation’s capital, Wheeler has conceded 10 hits and 11 earned runs in 9.2 innings, which has sent his ERA up quite a bit. Against the Braves and Phillies, Wheeler has pitched pretty well, giving up 11 hits and five earned runs in 13 innings of work. He was a hard luck loser against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, taking the defeat because of a pair of solo home runs in Philadelphia’s small park. The extra few feet at Citi Field should help Wheeler keep the ball in the park, which could make the difference in his second time seeing the Phils. Eflin hasn’t faced the Mets this season, but last year, he was 2-1 against the team from Queens, looking excellent in his final start against the Mets, a 4-0 win where he held New York to three hits. Only once, however, did Eflin make it past the fifth inning against the Mets last season.

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Tuesday’s Batting Splits

The Phillies’ slump has coincided with a drop in their offensive fortunes, as their batting average has fallen to .252, outside of the top 10. The Mets have hit a little better at .261, and both teams score their fair shre of runs, with the Mets averaging 5.4 runs per game to the Phils’ 5.3.

The Bullpens

Mets fans can be forgiven for covering their eyes when they turn the game over to the pen. With an ERA of 5.49, only Kansas City, Baltimore and Washington have made the end of games more interesting than the Mets. However, the Mets have usually found a way to survive the chaos, as their bullpen has held eight out of the 11 leads it’s been trusted with. The Phillies don’t make it as interesting as the Mets in terms of runs, but with a 3-4 record, the Phils aren’t the greatest in the pen either.

Totals Report

  • The over is 6-1 during the Mets’ past seven Game 2’s of a series
  • The under is 7-1 when Eflin gets four days of rest.
  • The over is 4-1 in Wheeler’s past five Tuesday starts.
  • The over is 6-2 in Wheeler’s past eight starts against Philadelphia.
  • The under is 5-1 in the Phillies’ past six games

Free MLB Pick

The Mets have had their problems dealing with the role of favorite this year, but the Phillies have fallen into a hole at the moment and Eflin is a bit of a wild card when facing New York. There’s just a little too much uncertainty with the Phillies to trust them when they’re an underdog, especially when you consider that Philadelphia is 4-6 on the road and two of the three wins were in front of mostly empty seats in Miami. I can’t count on the Phillies here, so I’ll take the Mets and lay the odds.