Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 8/23/20

by | Aug 23, 2020 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (9-14) vs. Atlanta Braves (16-11), 8/23/20

Time: 7:07 pm ET Sunday, Aug. 23

Where: Truist Park, Cumberland, GA

Listed Pitchers: Zach Eflin (0-1, 5.14) vs. Josh Tomlin (1-0, 2.35)

TV: ESPN

Moneyline: Phillies +110/Braves -120 (Sportbet - Best Parlay Odds on the Planet!)

Over/Under: 9.5

The Braves and Phillies are headed in different directions as of late, heading into the finale of their three-game NL East series down in Georgia Sunday night. Atlanta is 5-1 over its last six games, while Philadelphia owns a five-game losing skid. How might those trends play into our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Sunday’s MLB betting odds opened Atlanta and Tomlin at around -135 over Philly and Eflin, with an over/under of 9.5 runs. Early betting action then dropped the Braves down 15 cents or so, to around -120.

Phillies vs. Braves Set-Up

Atlanta took the opener of this series Friday night 11-2, pounding Philly starter Aaron Nola, then rallied late to take Saturday’s game 6-5. So the Braves shoot for the sweep of this series Sunday night.

Atlanta trailed 4-0 into the bottom of the seventh inning Saturday, then scored six runs over the last three innings, including the game-winner in the bottom of the ninth, to steal the victory.

The Braves won as -110 favorites on the MLB betting odds Friday, then as +105 home dogs Saturday.

Also, both games in this series have played over their totals.

At 16-11 overall, Atlanta leads the NL East by two games over second-place Miami but trails the Dodgers by four games in the battle for the best record in the National League.

At 9-14 overall, Philadelphia trails Arizona and five other teams in the scrum for the eighth and final National League playoff spot.

The Braves lead the season series with the Phillies four games to two.

Sunday’s Starting Arms

Tomlin is making his second start of this season, to go along with eight appearances in relief. Last Tuesday, in his first start of the year, he gave up two runs and six hits through four innings of an 8-5 Atlanta loss to Washington. And in his previous appearance, he allowed two runs in an inning and a third of relief against the Mets. But before that, he had thrown ten innings of scoreless relief.

So on the season, Tomlin has allowed four runs and 12 hits through 15 1/3 innings, with 18 strikeouts against four walks. He’s also yet to give up a homer.

Over eight relief appearances against the Phillies last year, Tomlin allowed four runs and nine hits through eight total innings, with one walk and seven whiffs.

Eflin is 0/3 on quality starts this season. Tuesday, he gave up four runs and five hits through four innings of a 13-6 Philly victory over Boston, and six days before that, he gave up four runs through six innings against Baltimore, although he also struck out 10.

On the season, Eflin has allowed ten runs – eight earned – and 16 hits through 14 innings, with 23 strikeouts against five walks. And thanks to some decent run support Philly is 2-1 with him.

Over four starts against Atlanta last year Eflin got knocked around for 21 runs – although somehow only 12 of those were earned – on 22 hits and 11 walks through 16 1/3 innings. The Phillies lost three of those four games.

Sunday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .256 against right-handed pitching this season, with a .328 team OBP and a .431 team slugging percentage.

Atlanta is batting .279/.344/.486 vs. RH pitching and numbers like those help the Braves rank right near the tops in the Majors in this split. However, this lineup is operating without Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, Jr. and Nick Markakis (combined 70 homers and 249 RBI last year), who are all out with injuries.

The Bullpens

The Phillies bullpen owns an ML-worst 8.29 ERA this season and an ML-worst 2.02 WHIP. Ugh.

The Braves pen owns a 3.47 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP.

MLB Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is just 2-6 on the road this season.
  • Atlanta is 10-3 at home this season.
  • Philadelphia is 4-9 against right-handed starters this season.
  • Atlanta is 12-9 vs. RH starters this season.

Totals Report

  • Overs are 11-10 in Phillies games this season.
  • Overs are 14-12 in Braves games this season.
  • Overs are 7-5 in games played at Truist Park this season.
  • Overs are 4-2 in Phillies-Braves games this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’ll give Atlanta a short edge in the pitching match-up, and while the lineup is without some key sticks, the Braves own a significant advantage in the bullpen comparison. Plus, Atlanta is hot, Philly not so much, and that means a lot to us when trends like that collide. We like the Braves for our free MLB pick for Sunday. Bet your Sunday night baseball picks for FREE by taking advantage of a 100% real cash bonus offer where you can deposit anywhere from $100 to $300 and MyBookie (See our MyBookie review) will match you dollar for dollar with a credit to your betting account! You must use this link to activate the bonus offer and type on bonus code PREDICT100 if it’s not already populated in the box.