Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Pick 9/18/19

by | Sep 18, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (77-72) vs. Atlanta Braves (93-59)
When: 7 p.m., Wednesday, September 18
Where: SunTrust Park, Atlanta

Moneyline: PHI +140/ATL -150 (5Dimes)
Runline: Phils +1.5/Braves -1.5
Total: 9.5

Starting Pitchers: Zach Eflin (8-12, 4.20 ERA, 1.34 WHIP) vs. Julio Teheran (10-9, 3.50 ERA, 1.31 WHIP

Out Of Time

The Phillies are going to spend the entire winter kicking themselves for their 7-9 record against the Marlins. Had they done something like the Braves’ 15-4 mark against the NL East’s weakest squad, they’d currently be sitting in the lead for the National League wild card as they enter the season’s final week and a half. Instead, they need something resembling a miracle to have even a small hope at the playoffs. Most likely, their best-case scenario is to secure a winning record for this year and get themselves ready to make a serious run at the NL East title in 2020. At four games back of both Milwaukee and the Cubs, they just don’t have enough time to really overcome their deficit and keep this season going. Instead, they’re going to be playing out the string and hoping against hope that the Brewers, Cubs, and Nationals all fall apart to give them a chance that almost certainly won’t come.

No Man’s Land

The Braves are in kind of a weird place right now. Unless the Nationals run the table, they’re not going to be caught for the NL East, and they don’t have to worry about the Cardinals either. In fact, with a win Wednesday and a Cardinal victory, the Braves would lock up no worse than a tie for the NL East title. But on the other side of the coin, Atlanta is five games back of Los Angeles with ten games to play, making it highly unlikely that the Braves can gain the top seed.

So Atlanta is going to likely use the next ten days to get itself ready to face the Cardinals in the NLDS. Unless Milwaukee or Chicago can catch St. Louis, the Cardinals are going to be making the trip to SunTrust Park for the first two games of the division series, and that means that the games are currently secondary for Atlanta.

Got His Number

Eflin’s most recent appearance came against the Braves, and it went only slightly better than his previous ex-perience against Atlanta. This time, he made it through three innings, but couldn’t get out of the fourth in a 3-1 loss to the Braves. For the year, he’s pitched 6.1 innings against the Braves, and the results are straight-up disastrous, as he’s taken two defeats and given up nine earned runs in two meetings. Eflin hasn’t had a great year. But, against the Braves, his struggles have been taken to a new level.

The Historicals

The Braves are going to be thrilled when the Phillies are eliminated from playoff contention because the Phils have been tough on their Georgia rivals all season long. The Braves own a winning record against the other three teams in the NL East, but against the Phillies, the edge is 9-8 to Philadelphia this year. With the other series sewn up in Atlanta’s favor, this marks the last chance the rest of the division has to keep the Braves from adding a winning record against all four of their NL East rivals to their soon-to-be division crown.

Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 3-13 in Eflin’s last 16 starts against a team with a winning record.
  • The Braves have won their past six Wednesday games.
  • The Braves are 10-2 in their past 12 home games against a right-hander.
  • The Braves have won Teheran’s past four starts against the Phillies.
  • The over is 4-0 in Teheran’s past four starts against Philadelphia.
  • The over is 4-1 in Eflin’s past four road starts.

Weather Report

At 89 degrees, it’s going to be a typical steamy day in Hotlanta as the teams experience the last remnants of the Georgia summer.

Dan’s pick

Eflin continues to have problems with the Braves, while Teheran has been dominant against the Phillies. Now, which way do you think I’m going to go in this pick? Given that Eflin just showed last week that he still can’t get the job done against Atlanta, there’s little reason to trust him to get the job done now, and that was be-fore he came down to Georgia to try to do what he failed to do in Pennsylvania.

Putting it simply, I’m not picking Eflin over Teheran as long as I’m picking their 2019 campaigns. Teheran has done a great job setting the Braves up for the postseason, and I think he’ll cruise here in this warm-up spot. Give me the Braves

Take the Braves -150