Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets Pick

by | Apr 22, 2019 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (12-9) vs. New York Mets (11-10), 4/22/19
Time: 7:10 pm ET
Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
Listed Pitchers: Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.11 WHIP) vs. Steven Matz (1-1, 4.96, 1.35)
TV: ESPN, NBCS Philadelphia, SNY
Moneyline: Mets -115/Phillies +105 (5Dimes)
Over/Under: 8.5

NL East rivals clash when the Phillies and Mets open a three-game series Monday night in New York. Both teams are coming off series losses over the weekend but both teams also sits at the top of the divisional standings. Who do we like here for our free MLB pick?

MLB Betting Odds

Monday’s MLB betting odds opened this game at right around a pick ’em, with an over/under of 8 runs. Early betting action then moved New York into a -115 favorite.

The Mets could also be found getting around +160 giving the run and a half on the MLB run line.

Phillies vs. Mets Set-Up

Philadelphia just dropped three of four games to the Rockies in Colorado over the weekend, missing out on a split by losing Sunday 4-1. Prior to that, though, the Phillies had won two series in a row over this New York team and Miami.

New York, meanwhile, just lost two of three games to the Cardinals in St. Louis over the weekend, losing Sunday’s series rubber match 6-4. So the Mets are 0-3-2 over their last five series and just 2-6 over their last eight games.

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At 12-9 overall Philadelphia leads the NL East by one game over 11-10 New York and Atlanta.

This series is the second encounter between these divisional rivals this season; last week the Phillies took two of three games from the Mets in Philly.

Monday’s Starting Arms

This pitching match-up is a rematch of a game played last May, a 3-1 Philadelphia victory.

Lefty Matz is one-for-four on quality starts this season. Over his first three starts he allowed just five runs – three earned – and 12 hits through 16 1/3 innings, with 19 strikeouts. But last Tuesday he got bombed by these Phillies for eight runs – six earned - and four hits, including a couple of home runs, without recording a single out in a 14-3 New York defeat.

The Mets are 3-1 with Matz this season.

In four starts last year against Philadelphia Matz allowed seven ER and 15 hits through 17 innings. New York finished 1-3 in those games.

Arrieta is a perfect 4/4 on quality starts this season. Last Wednesday he held these Mets to two runs and six hits through eight innings of a 3-2 Philly victory, and on the season he’s allowed just seven runs and 19 hits through 28 innings.

The Phillies are 3-1 with Arrieta this season.

Over his last four starts against the Mets, three last year and the one last week, Arrieta has allowed seven runs and 24 hits through 26 1/3 innings. Thanks to some poor run support Philadelphia only won one of those four games.

Monday’s Batting Splits

Philadelphia is batting .255/.341/.475 against left-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also been held to three runs or less four of its last five times out.

New York is batting .248/.331/.410 against right-handed pitching this season. But this lineup has also produced three runs or less four of its last seven times out.

The Bullpens

  • The Phillies bullpen owns a 4.07 ERA this season, with a 1.32 WHIP and an 87/28 strikeouts/walks ratio.
  • The Mets bullpen owns a rather generous 5.47 ERA this season, with a 1.64 WHIP and an 80/40 K/BB ratio.

Totals Report

  • The overs are 12-9 in Phillies games this season.
  • The overs are a lopsided 15-4 in Mets games this season.
  • The overs are 3-0-1 in Matz’s starts this season.
  • The unders are 3-1 in Arrieta’s starts this season.
  • The overs are 4-1 in games played at Citi Field this season.
  • The overs are 2-1 in Phillies-Mets games this season.

Free MLB Pick

We’re giving Philadelphia our handicapping advantages in the pitching match-up, with the sticks and in the comparison of the bullpens. So we’re going with the Phillies here for our free MLB pick for Monday.

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