Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Yankees Pick 7/20/21

by | Jul 20, 2021 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies (47-45) vs. New York Yankees (48-44)

When: 7:05 p.m., Tuesday, July 20

Where: Yankee Stadium, New York

Moneyline: PHI -120/NYY +110 (MLB DImeline Betting >>> Pay less for favorites and get paid more on your underdog bets!)

Runline: Phillies -1.5/Yankees +1.5

Total: 8.5

Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) vs. Domingo German (4-5, 4.72 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

Opportunity Knocks

The Phillies might be only two games above .500, but because they play in the NL East and not the AL East, they’ve got to come in feeling pretty good about their chances at a division title. With the Mets now facing time without Jacob deGrom, the Phillies are just two games back of first place in the NL East and are playing to convince their front office that it’s worth being buyers at the deadline to try to go after a division title.
So far, the Phillies look like they’re on track to cash in. They’ve won seven of their past 10 games and have scored four runs or more in eight of those 10 games. The Phillies haven’t really done anything particularly well or poorly all season, which is why their record is almost right at .500. But they’re playing solid baseball at the moment and getting the job done at the plate as of late, and if they can keep that up, they’ll make their way into the race.

Turning the Corner?

The Yankees remain in the race in the American League East, but only just. The Rays and Red Sox have really controlled the race for most of the season, in large part because the Yankees haven’t really been hitting much of anything this season. New York’s pitching has been pretty solid throughout the year, but the offense has often been pedestrian at best and disastrous at worst.
That’s why the Yankees’ past weekend against the Red Sox was so important: getting two games out of three could be the catalyst that lifts the Yankees back into the playoff picture. New York has gotten decent hitting out of Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela and DJ LeMahieu, but there just hasn’t really been a lot of runs for them to drive in because the rest of the Yankees aren’t getting on base enough . The Yankees did explode for nine runs against Boston, but that was also because they managed to get seven walks along with eight hits. In this series, the Yankees have to make sure they get some hits along with working for walks, in part because the Phillies don’t really give up a lot of walks. With only three hitters a game getting a free base, that strategy won’t work for the Yankees this time.

Seen This Film Before

The main thing the Yankees have to do differently this time around is keeping themselves in the game for the first few innings. Nola and German matched up already at Citizens Bank Park a month ago, and the Yankees were never in the game, as German allowed four runs in the first two innings to the Phillies. In that game, the Yankees’ problems with trying to wait things out were on full display, as the Phillies only gave them one free base runner for the entire contest.
Making matters worse was the fact that the Yankees’ hits only came from the top three hitters in the lineup. When two-thirds of your lineup produces nothing, you’re essentially punchless in all but three innings, and that’s one of the biggest reasons the Yankees find themselves looking up at Boston, Tampa Bay and Toronto.
Betting Trends

  • The Phillies are 5-2 in their past seven games against a team with a winning record.
  • The Phillies are 8-2 in their past 10 against a right-hander.
  • The Yankees are 7-3 in their past 10 games overall.
  • The Yankees are 2-6 in their past eight series openers.
  • The over is 7-1 in the Phillies’ past eight road games.
  • The over is 6-1 in the Phillies’ past seven games after a win.
  • The under is 5-1-1 in the Yankees’ past seven games overall.
  • The over is 11-5-1 in the Yankees’ past 17 games as an underdog.
  • The Phillies are 5-2 in the past seven meetings in New York.
  • The over is 4-0-1 in the past five meetings in New York.

Weather Report

This won’t be a great night for baseball. Temperatures are supposed to hit 86 degrees at first pitch, with humidity pushing that to 92 degrees. Winds won’t do much, as they’ll blow toward left-center at five miles per hour.

Dan’s Pick

The Phillies come in full of momentum and confidence, and they’ve already shown that they know what they’re doing against German and the Yankees. This is an important series for both teams as far as their respective playoff hopes go, but the Phillies seem to be the more motivated team at this point and should be able to replicate what they did in Philadelphia.
I’ll take the Phillies to claim a win here. Bet your MLB picks for FREE this week by taking advantage of a 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at BetNow Sportsbook!

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