Phillies vs. Mariners Picks & Predictions

by | Last updated May 11, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Seattle Mariners

Date: Wednesday, May 11th, 03:40 ET

Location: T-Mobile Park

TV: MLBN (out-of-market only)

Money Line: Phillies +125 / Mariners -145

Total Line: 7

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Philadelphia: Bailey Falter (0-1, 4.91)
Seattle: Logan Gilbert (4-0, 1.64)

Phillies Projected Lineup

CF Odubel Herrera
2B Jean Segura
C J.T. Realmuto
1B Rhys Hoskins
SS Johan Camargo
RF Bryce Harper
RF Nick Castellanos
LF Kyle Schwarber
3B Alec Bohm

Mariners Projected Lineup

RF Jarred Kelenic
2B Dylan Moore
2B Abraham Toro
CF Julio Rodriguez
C Luis Torrens
LF Jesse Winker
3B Eugenio Suárez
2B Adam Frazier
1B Ty France


Philadelphia Phillies: 13-17-0 SU / OU 15-13-2 / Run Line W/L 13-17-0
Seattle Mariners: 14-17-0 SU / OU 16-14-1 / Run Line W/L 16-15-0

The Seattle Mariners host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, May 11th at T-Mobile Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 03:40 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Seattle as the favorite (OFF), with an OU line set at OFF.

Recent Form

In their last game, the Phillies suffered a 1 run loss to Seattle by a score of 5-4. Philadelphia’s pitching staff finished the game by allowing 11 hits, leading to 5 runs. On offense, the Phillies finished with 5 hits. Phillies suffered the loss, despite being favored at -130.0. So far, the team has been the favorite in 21 of their games, winning at a rate of 48.0%. Together, the Phillies and Seattle combined to surpass the over-under betting line set at 7.0 runs. This result is part of a larger trend, as Philadelphia has the over has hit in more than half of their games (15-13-2).

Over the Phillies’ last 5 contests, they have a record of just 2-3. Despite their below .500 record, in this stretch, the team still has a positive run differential at 3. During this stretch, the offense is averaging 4.8 runs per game, similar to their season-long average of 4.50. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 2-7-1.

The Mariners will look to add another win, as in their last game, they defeated the Phillies by a score of 5-4. For the game, the pitching staff held Phillies to 4 runs on 5 hits. At the plate, the Mariners only come through for 4 runs on 11 hits. Despite being the underdogs, getting 110.0 on the moneyline, the Mariners still picked up the win. So far, the team has gone into 13 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 62.0%. The Mariners and Phillies went over the OU line set at 7.0 runs. For the season, the team’s OU record is (16-14-1).

The Mariners come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 2-3 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -14. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.2 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.97. Seattle has a below .500 series record of just 3-5-2.

Pitching Matchup

For the Phillies, Bailey Falter gets the start. Heading into action, he has a record of 0-1. To date, Falter has an ERA of 4.91, while lasting an average of 1.77 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.286. In addition to a high a batting average allowed, opposing batters have been able to drive the ball with power against Falter, averaging 2.54 homers per 9 innings pitched. Up to this point, Falter has a strikeout percentage of just 10.0% and a per game average of 0.75. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 2.45 walks per contest.

Seattle will send Logan Gilbert to the mound with a record of 4-0. Heading into his matchup vs Philadelphia, Gilbert has a strong ERA, sitting at just 1.64. This has come while averaging 5.5 innings per start. On the season, opposing team’s have put together a batting average of 0.207 against Gilbert. In addition, opposing teams are hitting home runs at a below average at a rate against him. So far, he has a HR/9 figure of just 0.55. A strength of Logan Gilbert’s game is his ability to generate swings and misses, striking out batters at a rate of 25.0%. Throughout the season, walks have been an issue, as he is giving up 3.0 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia vs Seattle History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Seattle Mariners will be their 2 first meeting of the season. Today’s game will be a rubber match for the two teams, as Philadelphia and Seattle each have 1 win. Through 2 games, the series’ over-under record is 2-0. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 5.0 runs.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 7 games when playing Seattle
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia’s last 6 games on the road
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle’s last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle’s last 5 games

Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners Prediction

In this game, look for the Mariners to grab another win over the Phillies, as Seattle should be able to jump all over Bailey Falter. In his 4 outings, Falter has an expected ERA of a whopping 8.12. In this interleague matchup, I like Seattle on the moneyline.

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