Phillies vs. Mets 4/30/22 Game Analysis & Best Bet

by | Last updated Apr 30, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets

Date: Saturday, April 30th, 6:10 ET

Location: Citi Field


Money Line: Phillies -105 / Mets 115 (BetOnline)

Total Line: 7.5


Philadelphia: Kyle Gibson (2-1, 3.47)
New York: Taijuan Walker (0-0, 0.0)


Philadelphia Phillies: 10-11-0 SU / OU 10-9-2 / Run Line W/L 10-11-0
New York Mets: 15-6-0 SU / OU 8-10-3 / Run Line W/L 14-7-0

The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday, April 30th at Citi Field. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 6:10 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-100), with an OU line set at 7.5.

Recent Form

The Phillies will look to bounce back from a tough loss to the NY Mets by the score of 3-0. This defeat came despite being favored at -190.0. Through 16 games as the favorite, the team has won at a rate of 56%. On their way to giving up 3 runs, the Philadelphia pitching staff allowed a total of 10 hits. Combined, the Phillies and NY Mets fell short of the over-under betting line of 8.0 runs. However, for the season, Philadelphia still has an overall over-under record of (10-9-2).

The Phillies are looking to continue adding wins, as they are 4-1 over their last 5 games. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at 20. A key to their recent success has been an offense averaging 6.4 runs per game compared to their season average at 4.57. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 2-5-0.

New York will look to keep things rolling as they are coming off a 3-0 win over Philadelphia. Offensively, New York came up with 10 hits, while the team’s pitching staff did not give up a single hit. With this result, the Mets and Philadelphia combined to fall below the over-under line of 9.0 runs. This result comes as no surprise, as the team’s over-under record is just 8-10-3.

In their last 5 games, the Mets have put together a record of 4-1. During this time, the team’s run differential sits at 8. Offensively, New York’s lineup has been steady at 4.4 runs per game over their last 5 contests. For the season, the team comes in with a per game average of 4.62. On the season, New York has won more than half of their series, going 7-0-0.

Pitching Matchup

For the Phillies, Kyle Gibson gets the start. So far, he has put together a record of 2-1. To date, Gibson has an ERA of 3.47 while lasting an average of 5.78 innings per appearance. Through 4 starts, opposing teams have combined for a batting average of 0.198. Despite a strong batting average allowed, Gibson is prone to giving up home runs, averaging 1.16 homers per 9 innings pitched. On the season, Kyle Gibson has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 25.6%, while averaging 9.0 K’s per 9 innings. Leading into the game, he has shown a strong command of his pitches, averaging just 1.75 walks per contest.

For the Mets, Taijuan Walker gets the start, having just made 1 scoreless appearance. In his 2 inning performance, Walker struck out 67% of his batters faced, while not giving up a run or hit.

Philadelphia vs New York History

So far, the New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies have met up 3 times, with New York winning the season series 3-1. Through 3 games, the series’ over-under record is 1-2, with the average run total sitting at 6.84 runs per game. In these matchups, the average scoring differential sits at 2.25 runs. Going back to last year, Philadelphia won the season series, 10 games to 9. In these 19 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 8-11. Last year, the two teams averaged 6.84 runs per game. On average, the winning team won by a margin of 2.11 runs per contest.

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Betting Trends

  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Phillies are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.
  • Mets are 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
  • Mets are 4-1 in their last 5 overall.

Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets Prediction

The Phillies will look to bounce back after being no-hit against the Mets in last night’s contest. Look for Philadelphia to have rebound performance at the plate, as they have hit the ball well against right-handed pitching. However, the same can be said for a red-hot Mets team. Rather than taking a side, I like this to be a high-scoring game and recommend the over at 7.5 runs.

Free Pick:

Over 7.5 Runs

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