Phillies vs. Pirates Moneyline Bet

by | Jul 30, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Date: Saturday July 30th, 07:15 ET

Location: PNC Park

TV: FOX

Money Line: Phillies -170 / Pirates +141 (Bovada - This place is undoubtedly better than wherever you’re betting at. Check them out! So much to love!)

Total Line: 8.5

STARTING PITCHING

Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (7-5, 3.84)
Pittsburgh: Mitch Keller (3-7, 4.55)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Alec Bohm 3B
Didi Gregorius SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Bryson Stott 2B
Matt Vierling CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Darick Hall 1B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Ranger Suarez P

Pirates Projected Lineup

Oneil Cruz SS
Greg Allen CF
Diego Castillo SS
Ben Gamel LF
Ke’Bryan Hayes 3B
Jason Delay C
Michael Chavis 1B
Yoshi Tsutsugo 1B
Kevin Newman 2B
Mitch Keller P

STRAIGHT UP/ OVER/UNDER / RUN LINE RECORDS

Philadelphia Phillies: 53-47-0 SU / OU 52-45-3 / Run Line W/L 52-48-0
Pittsburgh Pirates: 40-60-0 SU / OU 40-53-7 / Run Line W/L 51-49-0

The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Philadelphia Phillies on Saturday, July 30th at PNC Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 07:15 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-170), with an OU line set at 8.5.

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Recent Form

In their most recent game, Philadelphia picked up a 2-run win over the Pirates (4-2). Overall, the team’s pitching staff limited the Pirates to 2 runs on 7 hits. The Phillies benefited from an offense that generated 4 runs on 11 hits. In the matchup, Philadelphia was favored at -117.0 on the moneyline. So far, the team has been the favorite in 65 of their games, winning at a rate of 55%. Together, the Phillies and Pirates stayed below the over-under line set at 8.0 runs. However, for the season, Philadelphia still has an overall over-under record of 52-45-3.

In the Phillies’ last 5 games, they are above .500, going 4-1. During this time, they have an average scoring differential of +7. Their hot play has been driven by an offense that typically averages 4.66 runs per game. But, over this stretch, this figure has bumped up to 5.6. Philadelphia’s overall series record is just 15-15-2.

In Pittsburgh’s last outing, they fell by a score of 4-2 to the Phillies. Despite the losing effort, the team’s pitchers held the Phillies to 4 runs and 11 hits. At the plate, the Pirates only came through for 2 runs on 7 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Pittsburgh came into the game as the underdog, getting 107.0. So far, the team has gone into 82 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 35.0%. With this result, the Pirates and Phillies combined to fall below the over-under line of 8.0 runs. Now, Pittsburgh had an over-under record of 40-53-7.

The Pirates come into today’s game looking to turn things around, as they are just 0-5 over their last 5 games. During this time, the team has a run differential of -7. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.6 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 3.60. Pittsburgh has a below .500 series record of just 8-18-7.

Pitching Matchup

Philadelphia will roll with Ranger Suarez (7-5) as their starter. To date, Suarez has an ERA of 3.84 while lasting an average of 5.24 innings per appearance. Teams have been able to rack up runs against him, as he has a batting average allowed of 0.261. This season, Suarez has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.91 per 9 innings. On the season, Ranger Suarez has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 19.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.24 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.44 walks per outing.

The Pittsburgh Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the mound with an overall record of 3-7. So far, Keller has put together an ERA of 4.55. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.0 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.274. Throughout the season, Keller has done a good job at limiting home runs, allowing 0.85 per 9 innings. On the season, Mitch Keller has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This has led to an average of 4.42 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.22 walks per outing.

Philadelphia vs Pittsburgh History

Today’s matchup between the Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates will be their 3rd meeting of the season. Philadelphia has the lead in the series at 2-0. Through 2 games, the series over-under record is 1-1, with the average run total sitting at 10.29 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 1.5 runs. Last season, Philadelphia picked up the series win, 4 games to 3. In these 7 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 3-4. Last year, the Phillies and Pirates averaged 10.29 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 5.14 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
  • Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games at home

Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Heading into Saturday’s National League matchup between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, the Phillies are the favorite on the moneyline. Even though Mitch Keller has been steady for the Pirates, I don’t expect that to be enough against Ranger Suarez and the Phillies. I recommend taking Philadelphia to pick up the win.

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