Phillies vs. Reds Odds & Pick 8/17/22

by | Last updated Aug 17, 2022 | mlb

Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds

Date: Wednesday August 17th, 12:35 ET

Location: Great American Ball Park

TV: Bally Sports Ohio

Money Line: Phillies -165 / Reds +139 (Bovada – 50% bonus! Rebates on ALL your bets; win or lose! HUGE wagering menu! Best live betting platform! FAST bitcoin payouts!)

Total Line: 8.5


Philadelphia: Ranger Suarez (8-5, 3.52)
Cincinnati: Nick Lodolo (3-4, 4.72)

Phillies Projected Lineup

Matt Vierling LF
Bryson Stott SS
Nick Castellanos RF
Alec Bohm 3B
Brandon Marsh CF
J.T. Realmuto C
Rhys Hoskins 1B
Jean Segura 2B
Kyle Schwarber LF
Ranger Suarez P

Reds Projected Lineup

Albert Almora Jr. CF
Jose Barrero SS
Donovan Solano 2B
Aristides Aquino RF
Kyle Farmer 3B
Austin Romine C
Joey Votto 1B
Jonathan India 2B
Nick Senzel CF
Nick Lodolo P


Philadelphia Phillies: 65-51-0 SU / OU 57-54-5 / Run Line W/L 61-55-0
Cincinnati Reds: 45-70-0 SU / OU 58-55-2 / Run Line W/L 54-61-0

The Cincinnati Reds host the Philadelphia Phillies on Wednesday, August 17th at Great American Ball Park. The first pitch in this matchup is scheduled for 12:35 ET. The MLB Odds Board places Philadelphia as the favorite (-165), with an OU line set at 8.5.

Recent Form

In Philadelphia’s last game vs the Reds, the Phillies came away with an 11-4 win. For the game, Philadelphia’s pitching staff allowed 4 runs on 9 hits. The Phillies benefited from an offense that generated 11 runs on 18 hits. Heading into their last game, Philadelphia was the betting favorite at -175.0. Through 76 games as the favorite, the team has found the win column at a rate of 61.0%. With the over-under line set at 9.0 runs, the Phillies and Reds combined to go over this total. Philadelphia now has an over-under record of 57-54-5.

The Phillies come into this game with a 3-2 record over their last 5 contests. Over this stretch, the team has a positive run differential at +2. Philadelphia comes into the game struggling on offense, averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last 5. This figure is down from their season average of 4.66. So far, Philadelphia has won over half of their 37 series played, going 18-16-3.

Cincinnati will be looking to move on from a tough loss to the Phillies by the score of 11-4. In the game, the team’s pitching staff allowed a total of 18 hits, leading to 11 runs. The Reds’ offense ended the game with just 4 runs on 9 hits. This loss came as no surprise, as Cincinnati came into the game as the underdog, getting 145.0. So far, the team has gone into 86 games as the underdog, still finding the win column at a rate of 38.0%. The Reds and Phillies went over the run total line set at 9.0 runs. Overall, the team has gone over the betting line in over half of their games, going 58-55-2.

In their last 5 contests, the Reds have just 1 win, going 1-4. This recent slump is backed by a scoring margin of -12 over their last 5 games. Even with their recent struggles, the offense has been steady, averaging 3.8 runs per game. This is right in line with their season average of 4.22. Cincinnati has a below .500 series record of just 11-19-7.

Pitching Matchup

Ranger Suarez gets the start for the Phillies, with an overall record of 8-5. So far, Suarez has put together an ERA of 3.52. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 5.35 innings. Opposing teams have hit the ball well against the left-hander, with a batting average of 0.251. This season, Suarez has been able to avoid giving up home runs, allowing just 0.84 per 9 innings. On the season, Ranger Suarez has had no problem racking up strikeouts, posting a strikeout percentage of 20.0%. This includes a per game average of 4.45 K’s per game. For the season, he has struggled with command averaging 3.27 walks per outing.

The Cincinnati Reds will send Nick Lodolo to the mound with an overall record of 3-4. So far, Lodolo has put together an ERA of 4.72. In his appearances leading up to today, he has lasted an average of 4.72 innings. Compared to other starters, the right-hander has a high BA allowed of 0.288. Opposing hitters are hitting home runs at an above-average rate against Lodolo. This year, he is allowing 1.33 HRs per 9 innings pitched. In terms of strikeouts, Nick Lodolo has a strong K% of 28.9%, including a per game average of 6.4. Lodolo comes into the game hoping to improve his walk numbers, as he is averaging 4.53 free passes per outing.

Philadelphia vs Cincinnati History

For the season, the Philadelphia Phillies and Cincinnati Reds will be playing their 3rd game of the season. Philadelphia has the lead in the series at 2-0. The over-under record in this series sits at 1-1. The average run total in these games is 12.17 runs per game. The averge scoring margin in these meetings is 4.0 runs. Cincinnati won last year’s head to head series, grabbing 4 wins to 2. In these 6 meetings, the two teams combined for an over-under record of 4-2. Last year, the Phillies and Reds averaged 12.17 runs per game. The average scoring differential in this series was 7.5 runs per game.

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Betting Trends

  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games on the road
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia’s last 5 games
  • Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
  • Cincinnati is 17-6 SU in its last 23 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds Prediction

Heading into Wednesday’s National League matchup between Philadelphia and Cincinnati, the Phillies are the favorite on the moneyline. With Ranger Suarez on the mound, look for Philadelphia to pick up the win. The Phillies left-hander is coming off one of his best outings of the season, holding the Mets to 1 run across 7 innings. Look for him to have another strong performance vs the Reds.

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